Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
TODAY WITH A FEW POSSIBLY OCCURRING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 700 PM TONIGHT. THE BURN AREAS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING. HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL DECREASE SOME SUNDAY DUE TO MORE WEST FLOW...SO
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END MONDAY. COASTAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

A REMNANT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS PRODUCING TSTORMS OVER E
RIVERSIDE/SE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AT NIGHT. THUS...WE WILL BE
UNDER AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF TSTORMS EVEN FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT 10 AM AND 5 PM DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED DUE TO 60+ RH
VALUES AT 700 MB...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...HIGH CAPE/INSTABILITY VALUES
AND INTERACTIONS WITH OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE EAST. HIGHEST
THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE IN THE BURN AREAS IN THE
MTNS OF SAN DIEGO/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. SOME DRYING AT/ABOVE 500
MB WILL INCREASE OUR THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
MTNS/DESERTS. TSTORMS WEST OF THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
PROMINENT THAN ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN SOME EAST FLOW AT 700
MB...A FEW COULD DRIFT WEST INTO THE VALLEYS OR EVEN FORM WEST OF
THE MTNS.

I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS TO THE MTNS SUNDAY. WITH
LESS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...WE WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY TO HAVE A
THREAT OF FLOODING THOUGH.

TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A
SLIGHT PEAK IN TEMPS AROUND MID-WEEK. THE RH GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER
SHARP JUST TO OUR EAST...BUT FOR NOW I WILL HAVE THE FORECAST BE
FREE OF TSTORMS STARTING MONDAY.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 PM
FOR MTNS/DESERTS...SEE LAXFFASGX.

&&

MAXWELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
405 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

CAZ048-050-151300-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
245 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
COULD PRODUCE MUD FLOWS IN THE BURN AREAS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE A THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

CAZ055-056-058-060>062-151300-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND YUCCA VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
405 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 PM.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY UNTIL 600 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THE CHANCE
OF FLASH FLOODING. MUD SLIDES AND ROCK SLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
BURN AREAS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ALOFT BEGINS TO DECREASE.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...SO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXWELL