Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
945 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY WITH A FEW POSSIBLY OCCURRING WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 700 PM. THE
BURN AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOISTURE ALOFT WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY
WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

12Z NKX SOUNDING WAS STILL VERY MOIST WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
1.48 INCHES. DEWPOINTS WERE VERY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...IN THE 60S FROM THE COAST TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW
LOWER 70S IN THE DESERTS...SO CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM THE SFC TO 20000 FEET...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. CU ALREADY FORMING
OVER THE SBD AND RIV COUNTY MTNS AT 1630Z...AND CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1300 J/KG ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST BUT MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITHOUT ANY STRONG STEERING FLOW OR SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING OVER THE MTNS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 PM
FOR MTNS/DESERTS...SEE LAXFFASGX.

&&

MOEDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
405 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

CAZ048-050-151300-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
245 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
COULD PRODUCE MUD FLOWS IN THE BURN AREAS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE A THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

CAZ055-056-058-060>062-151300-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND YUCCA VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
405 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 PM.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY UNTIL 600 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THE CHANCE
OF FLASH FLOODING. MUD SLIDES AND ROCK SLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
BURN AREAS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ALOFT BEGINS TO DECREASE.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...SO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXWELL