Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR UPDATES. DRY
LINE CURRENTLY NEAR A BARTLESVILLE...WAURIKA LINE. EXPECT COLD FRONT
TO OVERTAKE DRY LINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
LINEAR WITH TIME.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AS MCS
SHIFTS EAST.   FINALLY A BREAK IN THE SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SHOULD BE
DRY AND MILD BOTH DAYS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.   FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.  COULD SEE ELEVATED
STORMS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
STRONG 85H LOW LEVEL JET/WAA DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS/PRECIP.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED ATTM.

TUL   52   74   47   76  / 10    5    5   10
FSM   53   75   49   76  / 80    5    5   10
MLC   54   75   48   77  / 70    5    5   10
BVO   49   73   45   75  / 10    5    5   10
FYV   49   71   44   72  / 80    5    5   10
BYV   47   69   43   71  / 80    5    5   10
MKO   52   74   47   76  / 60    5    5   10
MIO   49   71   43   73  / 60    5    5   10
F10   53   74   48   76  / 10    5    5   10
HHW   55   77   52   78  / 80    5    5   10

FORECAST ID= 12

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG A WIND
SHIFT LINE FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO JUST EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
WITCHITA FALLS.  THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

RICH MOISTURE...EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS WILL
LEAD TO SOME SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  A SQUALL LINE WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
FROM THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ALSO
PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY AROUND
TUESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0228 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0228 PM    EUFAULA                   OK   1.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   MCINTOSH

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0230 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    7 N SCIPIO                OK   2.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   PITTSBURG

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0234 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    2 N VERA                  OK   1.75 IN HAIL
05/10/03   WASHINGTON

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0239 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0232 PM    6 NE CANADIAN             OK   FX TORNADO
05/10/03   PITTSBURG

SP

OKZ061-102045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
258 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR ROGERS COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
   CDT...

AT 258 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OOLOGAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF FOYIL...OOLOGAH...BUSHYHEAD AND CHELSEA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 345 PM CDT.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 7 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0312 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0309 PM    VIAN                      OK   1.75 IN HAIL
05/10/03   SEQUOYAH

SP