Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
810 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

A BOUNDARY WITH CONSDIERABLE CYCLONIC SHEAR WAS LIFTING NORTH FROM
WEST PORT TO NORTH OF STILLWATER.  THE SUPERCELL WEST OF STILLWATER
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION AS IT INTERSECTS THAT BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING STEADILY NORTH AND COULD OUT PACE THE
SUPERCELL...SO THE LONGER-TERM EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM IS NOT CLEAR.

THE MESOCYCLONE WITH THIS CELL COULD ENTER WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY
AROUND 830PM IF IT SURVIVES.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL AID IN THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT A DRY LINE
WILL SHARPEN OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE DUE
TO VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS.  THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR A FEW DAYS TILL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ054>064-067>069-100337-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
437 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 321 UNTIL 1100
PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OSAGE                 OTTAWA                PAWNEE
ROGERS                TULSA                 WAGONER
WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAREMORE...JAY...MIAMI...NOWATA...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...SAND
SPRINGS...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VINITA AND WAGONER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0640 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0622 PM    HALLETT                   OK   0.75 IN HAIL
05/09/03   PAWNEE

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0646 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0625 PM    2 NW OSAGE                OK   0.88 IN HAIL
05/09/03   OSAGE

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0648 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0625 PM    CLEVELAND                 OK   0.88 IN HAIL
05/09/03   PAWNEE

SP

OKZ064>066-100115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
753 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CLEARED THE FOLLOWING AREAS
REMAINING IN TORNADO WATCH #320. NO AREAS REMAIN IN THE WATCH.

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDED 2 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

OKMULGEE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF OKEMAH AND OKMULGEE.

OKZ054>064-067>069-100130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
810 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

TORNADO WATCH #321 ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OSAGE                 OTTAWA                PAWNEE
ROGERS                TULSA                 WAGONER
WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAREMORE...JAY...MIAMI...NOWATA...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...SAND
SPRINGS...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VINITA AND WAGONER.