Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 10, 2003Ottawa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 10, 2003, 3:03 PM CDT for Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2003, 3:03 PM CDT (20:03 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2003, 4:00 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 10, 11:55 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1867 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 689 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 296 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 300 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.5
Supercell composite: 12.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

837 
WUUS54 KTSA 102003
SVRTUL
OKC115-102100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 303 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11
  MILES WEST OF NARCISSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...
  COMMERCE...NARCISSA AND QUAPAW.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE
STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3696 9501 3671 9501 3684 9462 3700 9463

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 10, 2:50 PM CDT, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 2:50 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

A LARGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO RACE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 50 KNOTS INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
VALUES...BELOW 100 M2/S2...EVEN IN THE ARKNASAS RIVER VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM AND WINDS FIELDS...EXPECT VERY
LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES WITH THE CELL.  LONG-TERM
EXTRAPOLATION WITH THE CELL BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE TO NEAR THE
CRAWFORD COUNTY BORDER AROUND 325 PM.

STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A LINE.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT THE THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE JUST WIND AND HAIL.

FORECAST ID=08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 1:00 PM CDT, 2 hours 3 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG A WIND
SHIFT LINE FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO JUST EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
WITCHITA FALLS.  THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

RICH MOISTURE...EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS WILL
LEAD TO SOME SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  A SQUALL LINE WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
FROM THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ALSO
PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY AROUND
TUESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 10, 2:26 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0226 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0224 PM    3 W EUFAULA               OK   1.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   MCINTOSH

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 2:28 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0228 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0228 PM    EUFAULA                   OK   1.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   MCINTOSH

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 2:30 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0230 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    7 N SCIPIO                OK   2.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   PITTSBURG

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 2:34 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0234 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    2 N VERA                  OK   1.75 IN HAIL
05/10/03   WASHINGTON

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 2:39 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0239 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0232 PM    6 NE CANADIAN             OK   FX TORNADO
05/10/03   PITTSBURG

SP

Special weather statement, May 10, 2:58 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

OKZ061-102045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
258 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR ROGERS COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
   CDT...

AT 258 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OOLOGAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF FOYIL...OOLOGAH...BUSHYHEAD AND CHELSEA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 345 PM CDT.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 7 PM.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 8:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	59 min
May 9, 10:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	43 min
May 9, 10:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata	66 min
May 9, 11:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Creek	65 min
May 9, 11:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee	43 min
May 9, 11:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Tulsa	51 min
May 10, 12:21 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Creek	54 min
May 10, 12:34 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Okmulgee, Tulsa	56 min
May 10, 1:15 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Creek, Okmulgee, Tulsa	45 min
May 10, 1:22 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Wagoner	68 min
May 10, 2:29 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Wagoner	46 min
May 10, 2:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	48 min
May 10, 2:49 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee	56 min
May 10, 12:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	52 min
May 10, 12:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	49 min
May 10, 1:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okfuskee, Okmulgee	42 min
May 10, 1:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Rogers, Washington	65 min
May 10, 1:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Nowata, Rogers, Washington	70 min
May 10, 1:52 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Pittsburg	53 min
May 10, 2:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig	44 min
May 10, 2:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Haskell, Muskogee	65 min
May 10, 2:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig	53 min
May 10, 2:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Pittsburg	75 min
May 10, 2:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sequoyah	46 min
May 10, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers	31 min
May 10, 3:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair	38 min
May 10, 4:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Ottawa	60 min
May 10, 4:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.