Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
122 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPLODED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRY LINE IN
OKLAHOMA.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS HIGH AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE NOT OPTIMAL FOR
DISCRETE CELLS.  SO THE GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE ANGLE OF THE SHEAR VECTORS WILL PROMOTE CELL TO
CELL INTERACTIONS AND WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A SOLID SQUALL LINE.

CAPES OF 3000 J/KG AND MODERATELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE RISE TO
AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL TOWARD EVENING.

FORECAST ID=08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG A WIND
SHIFT LINE FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO JUST EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
WITCHITA FALLS.  THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

RICH MOISTURE...EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS WILL
LEAD TO SOME SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  A SQUALL LINE WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
FROM THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ALSO
PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY AROUND
TUESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ049-053>076-110000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #338 UNTIL 700
PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 25 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BENTONVILLE...
BERRYVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...CEDARVILLE...CLAREMORE...
CLAYTON...EUFAULA...EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...
HUGO...HUNTSVILLE...JAY...MCALESTER...MIAMI...MOUNTAINBURG...
MUSKOGEE...NATURAL DAM...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...OZARK...
PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...POTEAU...PRYOR...ROGERS...SALLISAW...SAND
SPRINGS...SILOAM SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...
TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VAN BUREN...VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.