Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE ATTM...NEAR A
BVO...OKC LINE.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE
ALONG BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BETWEEN 50-60 KTS. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND A FEW TORNADOES.  PERSONS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AS WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE

FORECAST ID=12

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1000 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH A DRYLINE TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS A
RESULT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH THE DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA.  THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY AROUND
MIDDAY.  RICH MOISTURE AND AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4
PM...NEAR A SOUTH COFFEYVILLE...TULSA...OKEMAH LINE. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY DUE TO THE VERY HIGH INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS INITIALLY AS STORMS
DEVELOP WITH THE POSSIBILITY BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON...SWEEPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY AROUND
TUESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ049-053>076-110000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #338 UNTIL 700
PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 25 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BENTONVILLE...
BERRYVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...CEDARVILLE...CLAREMORE...
CLAYTON...EUFAULA...EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...
HUGO...HUNTSVILLE...JAY...MCALESTER...MIAMI...MOUNTAINBURG...
MUSKOGEE...NATURAL DAM...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...OZARK...
PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...POTEAU...PRYOR...ROGERS...SALLISAW...SAND
SPRINGS...SILOAM SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...
TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VAN BUREN...VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.