Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS San Angelo, TX

October 11, 2003Kimble County, Schleicher County, Sutton County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Oct 11, 2003, 1:00 PM CDT for Kimble County, Schleicher County, Sutton County, Texas. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 11, 2003, 1:00 PM CDT (18:00 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2003, 6:45 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS San Angelo, TX
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Kimble County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-10-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 72 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-10-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 101 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
72 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-221 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
625 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 111800
FFWSJT
TXC267-413-435-112345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SCHLEICHER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS
  KIMBLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
  SUTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 1245 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS REPORTED FLASH           
  FLOODING IN SUTTON COUNTY WITH WATER COVERING RANCH ROAD 1691.     
  WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE 
  WARNED AREA AND THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE    
  AFTERNOON.

* RAINFALL TOTALING 1 TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF THE      
  WARNED AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED     
  THROUGH 645 PM CDT

TURN AROUND DONT DROWN DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.
REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 3035 10091 3033 9935 3065 9964 3064 10014
          3103 10018 3103 10090

$$
JOHNSON
6 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS74 KSJT 111852
FFSSJT
TXC267-112345-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
144 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KIMBLE COUNTY UNTIL 
645 PM CDT...
...JUNCTION LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING IN 
JUNCTION TO STREETS AT 140 PM...

AT 140 PM CDT...THE JUNCTION LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STREET 
FLOODING IN JUNCTION AND WATER ALMOST ENTERING A STORE IN THE CITY.

AT 145 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED A STATIONARY BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAIN
STRETCHING ACROSS CLEO...ROOSEVELT AND JUNCTION.  THIS RAIN BAND 
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO THESE TOWNS AND KIMBLE COUNTY.

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
OVER JUNCTION SINCE 1230 PM...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO THREE 
INCHES EXPECTED BY 645 PM CDT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT 
FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS...CREEKS...AND DRAWS.

REMEMBER IF YOU COME TO A FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT.

$$

GUERRERO
000 
WGUS74 KSJT 111939
FFSSJT
TXC095-399-451-413-112215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
240 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOM GREEN... 
RUNNELS...AND CONCHO...COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM CDT...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SCHLEICHER
COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 240 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED THE HEAVY RAIN HAD DIMINISHED.  
HOWEVER...AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP AND PRODUCE FLOODING RAINFALL.

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT A HALF TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY SINCE 11 AM CDT WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP 
TO HALF AN INCH BY 500 PM CDT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FLOODING OF
STREETS...INTERSECTIONS...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE
CITY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS OR AROUND
BARRICADES SET UP AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS
OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

$$
000 
WGUS74 KSJT 112001
FFSSJT
TXC267-327-435-112130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
254 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUTTON AND KIMBLE 
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MENARD COUNTY UNTIL 
615 PM CDT...

AT 300 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING FROM MENARD TO 
JUNCTION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  

AT 300 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAVE FALLEN SINCE 12 PM CDT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH 
EXPECTED BY 600 PM CDT...MAINLY FROM MENARD TO JUNCTION AND EAST. 
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND 
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FLOODING OF
STREETS...INTERSECTIONS...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE
CITY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS OR AROUND
BARRICADES SET UP AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS
OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

$$
000 
WGUS74 KSJT 112123
FFSSJT
TXC267-319-327-112130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
415 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUTTON AND KIMBLE 
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM...AND FOR MENARD COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 415 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAVE FALLEN OVER KIMBLE COUNTY...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER MENARD AND 
MASON COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF 3 INCHES WAS 8 MILES NORTHWEST 
AND WEST OF JUNCTION...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN KIMBLE COUNTY LINE.

BETWEEN 415 PM AND 530 PM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER MASON 
AND KIMBLE COUNTIES...PRODUCING ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN. 

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND 
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

$$

04
000 
WGUS74 KSJT 112151
FFSSJT
TXC095-399-451-413-112200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
450 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR TOM GREEN...RUNNELS...CONCHO...AND 
SCHLEICHER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING.

$$
9
000 
WGUS74 KSJT 112235
FFSSJT
TXC267-319-435-112345-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
535 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUTTON AND KIMBLE 
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM...AND MASON COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

HEAVY RAINS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WERE REPORTED IN TELEGRAPH...IN 
SOUTHERN KIMBLE COUNTY. RADAR INDICATED SIMILAR AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN KIMBLE AND SOUTHERN SUTTON COUNTY LINES. FLOODED 
STREETS WERE REPORTED IN JUNCTION AND MASON EARLIER AT 430 PM. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND 
EAST OF A JUNCTION TO MASON LINE BETWEEN 530 PM AND 645 PM. THIS 
WILL MAKE ANY FLOODING CONDITIONS WORSE.
$$
04

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 11, 9:00 AM CDT, 4 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 9:00 AM CDT, 4 hours before
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
900 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

.CURRENT...COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT SHAPING
UP FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL BE UPDATING ZONES AND WILL BE
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND DECIDE OTHER AREAS AT LATER TIME
IF NEEDED.

FLOOD WATCH WILL BE COMMING OUT SHORTLY...BUT WILL NEED TO DO SOME
SERIOUS WORK ON THE GRIDS...SO IT MAY BE AN HOUR BEFORE NEW ZONES
COME OUT.

27/BRAZZELL

CURRENT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPING OVER THE BIG BEND. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ABOUT TO PUSH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

DAYS 1-3...MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. THE AVN
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE...POPS...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WILL TREND FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARD THE AVN.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...FOR THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS...THAN THAT WHICH MAV MOS CURRENTLY PRESENTS BEST GIVEN
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT.

DAYS 4-7...AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE WITH MAIN FOCUS ON THE
SHORT TERM.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 075/053/072/053/078 46211
SJT 076/055/071/053/079 67421
JCT 075/063/072/058/078 77642

.SJT...FFA MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...SAN SABA SOUTH.

23/HUBER
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 11, 5:30 AM CDT, 7 hours 30 minutes before
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-121030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
530 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM MEXICO WILL ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

15

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 11, 9:59 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTCrockett, Irion, Schleicher, Sutton, Tom Green3 hr
Oct 11, 11:21 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTRunnels6 hr
Oct 11, 11:33 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTColeman6 hr
Oct 11, 12:25 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTMenard6 hr
Oct 11, 12:59 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTConcho, Tom Green4 hr
Oct 11, 1:45 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTBrown6 hr
Oct 11, 2:35 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTMcCulloch, Mason, San Saba5 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.