Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 111939
FFSSJT
TXC095-399-451-413-112215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
240 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOM GREEN... 
RUNNELS...AND CONCHO...COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM CDT...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SCHLEICHER
COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 240 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED THE HEAVY RAIN HAD DIMINISHED.  
HOWEVER...AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP AND PRODUCE FLOODING RAINFALL.

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT A HALF TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY SINCE 11 AM CDT WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP 
TO HALF AN INCH BY 500 PM CDT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FLOODING OF
STREETS...INTERSECTIONS...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE
CITY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS OR AROUND
BARRICADES SET UP AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS
OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

$$

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 112151
FFSSJT
TXC095-399-451-413-112200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
450 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR TOM GREEN...RUNNELS...CONCHO...AND 
SCHLEICHER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING.

$$
9

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
900 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

.CURRENT...COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT SHAPING
UP FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL BE UPDATING ZONES AND WILL BE
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND DECIDE OTHER AREAS AT LATER TIME
IF NEEDED.

FLOOD WATCH WILL BE COMMING OUT SHORTLY...BUT WILL NEED TO DO SOME
SERIOUS WORK ON THE GRIDS...SO IT MAY BE AN HOUR BEFORE NEW ZONES
COME OUT.

27/BRAZZELL

CURRENT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPING OVER THE BIG BEND. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ABOUT TO PUSH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

DAYS 1-3...MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. THE AVN
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE...POPS...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WILL TREND FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARD THE AVN.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...FOR THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS...THAN THAT WHICH MAV MOS CURRENTLY PRESENTS BEST GIVEN
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT.

DAYS 4-7...AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE WITH MAIN FOCUS ON THE
SHORT TERM.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 075/053/072/053/078 46211
SJT 076/055/071/053/079 67421
JCT 075/063/072/058/078 77642

.SJT...FFA MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...SAN SABA SOUTH.

23/HUBER

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-121030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
530 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM MEXICO WILL ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

15