Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003
Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS San Angelo, TX
NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Oct 11, 2003, 11:33 AM CDT for Coleman County, Texas. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 11, 2003, 11:33 AM CDT (16:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 11, 2003, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- NWS San Angelo, TX
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Coleman County, TX
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 238 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 832 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 36 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS54 KSJT 111638 FFWSJT TXC083-112230- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1133 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... COLEMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 1130 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR COLEMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. * THE THUNDERSTORM WITH FLOODING RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR TOWNS... COLEMAN...SILVER VALLEY...NOVICE...ECHO...GOLD BUSK...AND SANTA ANNA. * RAINFALL TOTALING UP TO 1 AND A HALF INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH 530 PM CDT TURN AROUND DONT DROWN DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. LAT...LON 3157 9959 3153 9928 3205 9925 3201 9964 $$
2 follow-up statements
000 WGUS74 KSJT 111946 FFSSJT TXC049-083-307-411-112100- FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 ...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLEMAN COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM...AND FOR BROWN...MCCULLOCH...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 4 PM...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM BRADY TO SAN SABA...AND NORTHWARD TO BROWNWOOD. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT NEARLY TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. UP TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF CREEKS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. $$ 09
000 WGUS74 KSJT 112118 FFSSJT TXC049-083-307-411-112215- FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 420 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 ...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COLEMAN COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM...AND FOR BROWN...MCCULLOCH...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 530 PM...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL FROM BRADY TO SAN SABA...WHERE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE HEARTLAND TODAY...WITH ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. $$ 9
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 11, 9:00 AM CDT, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 9:00 AM CDT, 2 hours 33 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 900 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 .CURRENT...COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL BE UPDATING ZONES AND WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND DECIDE OTHER AREAS AT LATER TIME IF NEEDED. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE COMMING OUT SHORTLY...BUT WILL NEED TO DO SOME SERIOUS WORK ON THE GRIDS...SO IT MAY BE AN HOUR BEFORE NEW ZONES COME OUT. 27/BRAZZELL CURRENT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE BIG BEND. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ABOUT TO PUSH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DAYS 1-3...MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. THE AVN CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE...POPS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL TREND FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARD THE AVN. HOWEVER...BELIEVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS...THAN THAT WHICH MAV MOS CURRENTLY PRESENTS BEST GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT. DAYS 4-7...AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE WITH MAIN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM. CCF PRELIMS... ABI 075/053/072/053/078 46211 SJT 076/055/071/053/079 67421 JCT 075/063/072/058/078 77642 .SJT...FFA MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...SAN SABA SOUTH. 23/HUBER
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 11, 5:30 AM CDT, 6 hours 3 minutes before
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140- 154-155-168>170-121030- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 530 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE... A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM MEXICO WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 15
The office that day
Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 9:59 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Crockett, Irion, Schleicher, Sutton, Tom Green | 3 hr |
| Oct 11, 11:21 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Runnels | 6 hr |
| Oct 11, 12:25 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Menard | 6 hr |
| Oct 11, 12:59 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Concho, Tom Green | 4 hr |
| Oct 11, 1:00 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Kimble, Schleicher, Sutton | 6 hr |
| Oct 11, 1:45 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Brown | 6 hr |
| Oct 11, 2:35 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | McCulloch, Mason, San Saba | 5 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.