Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003
Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS San Angelo, TX
NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Oct 11, 2003, 12:25 PM CDT for Menard County, Texas. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 11, 2003, 12:25 PM CDT (17:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 11, 2003, 6:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- NWS San Angelo, TX
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Menard County, TX
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 72 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -221 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 625 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 101 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS54 KSJT 111726 FFWSJT TXC327-112315- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... MENARD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 1211 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF MENARD COUNTY. THE STORMS ARE FILLING IN TO THE EAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER MENARD BY 1245 PM. * RAINFALL TOTALING IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR HAS FALLEN IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH 615 PM CDT TURN AROUND DONT DROWN DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. LAT...LON 3077 10008 3075 9966 3103 9966 3103 10005 $$ JOHNSON
2 follow-up statements
000 WGUS74 KSJT 112001 FFSSJT TXC267-327-435-112130- FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 254 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 ...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUTTON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT... ...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MENARD COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT... AT 300 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING FROM MENARD TO JUNCTION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. AT 300 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 12 PM CDT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH EXPECTED BY 600 PM CDT...MAINLY FROM MENARD TO JUNCTION AND EAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FLOODING OF STREETS...INTERSECTIONS...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE CITY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS OR AROUND BARRICADES SET UP AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. $$
000 WGUS74 KSJT 112123 FFSSJT TXC267-319-327-112130- FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 415 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 ...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUTTON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM...AND FOR MENARD COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT... AT 415 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER KIMBLE COUNTY...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER MENARD AND MASON COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF 3 INCHES WAS 8 MILES NORTHWEST AND WEST OF JUNCTION...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN KIMBLE COUNTY LINE. BETWEEN 415 PM AND 530 PM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER MASON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES...PRODUCING ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. $$ 04
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 11, 9:00 AM CDT, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 9:00 AM CDT, 3 hours 25 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 900 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 .CURRENT...COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL BE UPDATING ZONES AND WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND DECIDE OTHER AREAS AT LATER TIME IF NEEDED. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE COMMING OUT SHORTLY...BUT WILL NEED TO DO SOME SERIOUS WORK ON THE GRIDS...SO IT MAY BE AN HOUR BEFORE NEW ZONES COME OUT. 27/BRAZZELL CURRENT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE BIG BEND. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ABOUT TO PUSH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DAYS 1-3...MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. THE AVN CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE...POPS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL TREND FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARD THE AVN. HOWEVER...BELIEVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS...THAN THAT WHICH MAV MOS CURRENTLY PRESENTS BEST GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT. DAYS 4-7...AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE WITH MAIN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM. CCF PRELIMS... ABI 075/053/072/053/078 46211 SJT 076/055/071/053/079 67421 JCT 075/063/072/058/078 77642 .SJT...FFA MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...SAN SABA SOUTH. 23/HUBER
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 11, 5:30 AM CDT, 6 hours 55 minutes before
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140- 154-155-168>170-121030- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 530 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE... A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM MEXICO WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 15
The office that day
Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 9:59 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Crockett, Irion, Schleicher, Sutton, Tom Green | 3 hr |
| Oct 11, 11:21 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Runnels | 6 hr |
| Oct 11, 11:33 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Coleman | 6 hr |
| Oct 11, 12:59 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Concho, Tom Green | 4 hr |
| Oct 11, 1:00 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Kimble, Schleicher, Sutton | 6 hr |
| Oct 11, 1:45 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | Brown | 6 hr |
| Oct 11, 2:35 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SJT | McCulloch, Mason, San Saba | 5 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.