Tornado Warning 82, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

CURRENT SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
MID-STATE SQUEEZED IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY KEEPING CONVECTION GOING
ACROSS MIDDLE TN/NORTH AL...AND THINGS ARE BECOMING STRONGER.

MODELS BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH AND EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN ACTUALLY TRY TO SHOW SOME DRYING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND LATE TONIGHT. THIS
DRY SLOT IS SHOWING UP ON IR IMAGERY BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE THIS POSSIBLE BRIEF DRYER REPRIEVE. CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA ALREADY LIFTING
NORTHWARD WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN EXTREME NORTHERN MS WORKING
THIS WAY. PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY...AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS EVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS LOOK TO AFFECT THE CWA.
ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. NEARLY NON-STOP MODERATE-
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN SOME AREAS ALREADY CAUSING
PROBLEMS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...HEAVY AT TIMES...EXPECTED TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT CAN ONLY AGGRAVATE THE PROBLEM. THUS WILL ISSUE
FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES TODAY/TONIGHT FOR NOW.

AS TIGHTER LL LOWS CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...DRYING OCCURS
BEHIND BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION LOOKING TO SCATTERED OUT DURING THE
DAY BUT WILL BE WIDESPREAD EARLY. PLAN HIGH SCATTERED POPS NORTH...
LIKELY SOUTH/PLATEAU. ONLY SMALL POPS PLANNED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
AIRMASS MUCH DRYER OVERALL.

BNA 80/66/81/61 6753
CSV 75/62/76/57 7773

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.BNA...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-071030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-STATE AGAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE NOT ONLY ISOLATED TORNADOES
BUT EXTENDED HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LOCALLY SEVERE WEATHER EACH OF THESE DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

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