Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 10, 2002Coconino County, Gila County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 10, 2002, 5:08 PM MST for Coconino County, Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Sep 10, 2002, 5:08 PM MST (00:08 UTC)
Expired: Sep 10, 2002, 5:45 PM MST
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 213 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -54 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 936 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 87 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 514 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 537 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.6
Supercell composite: 10.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 10, 9:55 AM MST, 7 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 10, 9:55 AM MST, 7 hours 13 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST TUE SEP 10 2002

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATER
IN THE WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY. EXPECT A
DRYING TREND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN RISE TO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY EJECT N-NE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA. BEST INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA WHERE SKIES HAVE ALREADY STARTED THE DAY PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH
PW VALUES ARE SPREAD NEARLY UNIFORMLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT STORMS THAT DEVELOP WINSLOW EAST WILL BE LONG-LIVED AND
EVENTUALLY WILL FORM A LARGE AREA OF RAIN CENTERED AROUND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. STORMS THAT FORM OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY MAY BECOME VERY
STRONG TODAY...AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWARD. CONTINUED DYNAMICS FROM THE EJECTING LOW MAY
CAUSE ACTIVITY TO LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS
FOR A POSSIBLE FFA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL OTHER PRODUCTS COVER
TRENDS WELL...AND WILL NOT UPDATE FOR NOW. PETERSON.

.FGZ...NONE

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   WED     THU        TDY TON   WED   THU
FLAGSTAFF        067/047 068/045 066/041      050 070 050 040 040 030
WINSLOW          076/056 077/054 077/052      050 070 050 030 040 030
PRESCOTT         075/054 077/053 077/053      050 070 050 040 040 030
PAGE             079/060 078/060 076/058      040 060 040 030 030 020
WINDOW ROCK      070/048 069/046 070/043      050 070 060 040 040 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 076/055 075/053 076/050      050 070 060 040 040 030
COTTONWOOD       086/062 088/061 088/061      050 070 050 040 040 030
GRAND CANYON     068/048 069/046 067/042      050 070 050 040 040 030
GREER            064/046 065/044 063/040      050 070 060 040 040 030
HEBER            072/050 073/048 071/044      050 070 050 040 040 030
JACOB LAKE       064/047 065/045 063/041      050 070 050 040 040 030
NAVAJO N.M.      068/054 067/052 068/049      040 060 050 030 030 020
PAYSON           079/054 081/053 081/053      050 070 050 030 040 030
SEDONA           083/061 085/060 085/060      050 070 050 040 040 030
SELIGMAN         078/047 080/046 080/046      040 060 040 030 030 020
SHOW LOW         073/056 074/054 072/050      050 070 060 040 040 030
ST. JOHNS        072/052 073/050 073/048      050 070 050 030 040 030
WUPATKI N.M.     078/058 079/056 079/054      050 070 050 030 040 030

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 10, 3:17 PM MST, 1 hour 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA
0317 PM MST TUE SEP 10 2002

TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    COSNINO                   AZ   2 INCH HAIL
09/10/02   COCONINO                       REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

0250 PM    DONEY PARK                AZ   2 INCH HAIL
09/10/02   COCONINO                       REPORTED BY DONEY PARK FIRE DEPT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 10, 5:01 PM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Apache	29 min
Sep 10, 5:01 PM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Apache	29 min
Sep 10, 5:26 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	34 min
Sep 10, 5:43 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	2 hr
Sep 10, 5:44 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	3 hr
Sep 10, 5:45 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	3 hr
Sep 10, 5:45 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	2 hr
Sep 10, 5:55 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Sep 10, 5:58 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Sep 10, 7:45 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache	105 min
Sep 10, 7:45 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache	45 min
Sep 10, 8:35 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	25 min
Sep 10, 8:54 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	36 min
Sep 10, 9:40 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache	65 min
Sep 10, 9:49 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache	116 min
Sep 11, 1:25 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Sep 11, 1:25 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Sep 11, 12:25 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Sep 11, 12:25 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	110 min
Sep 11, 12:28 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	32 min
Sep 11, 2:00 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Navajo	45 min
Sep 11, 3:05 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Sep 11, 3:05 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.