Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002
Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 10, 2002, 7:45 PM MST for Apache County, Arizona. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 10, 2002, 7:45 PM MST (02:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 10, 2002, 8:30 PM MST
- In force
- 45 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Apache County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 238 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 233 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 213 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -54 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 936 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 87 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 514 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 537 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 10.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 110245 FFWFGZ AZC001-110430- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 745 PM MST TUE SEP 10 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA * UNTIL 930 PM MST (1030 PM MDT) * AT 734 PM MST (834 PM MDT)...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY. THE CHINLE POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTS FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN CHINLE WASH FROM ITS CONFLUENCE WITH CANYON DE CHELLY NORTHWARD TO MANY FARMS. EVACUATIONS ARE TAKING PLACE IN THIS AREA FOR THOSE LIVING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CHINLE WASH. ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA THROUGH 1000 PM MDT. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3617 10963 3619 10939 3633 10941 3632 10963
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 10, 5:20 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 10, 5:20 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
520 PM MST TUE SEP 10 2002
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATER
IN THE WEEK. EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THEN RISE TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
.DISCUSSION...EXTRAORDINARY DAY...WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. EXTREMELY WET AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS BEING
ACTED ON BY A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL. IN
ADDITION TO THIS...STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A JET
STREAK OVER COLORADO WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE CONVECTION NOCTURNALLY.
18Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE EVEN LESS DRYING BEHIND THIS LOW WEDNESDAY
DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...AND WE ARE LIKELY IN FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY THURSDAY BEHIND THIS LOW...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. WILL DRY OUT POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH NO POPS AND
WARM WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. PETERSON.
.FGZ...FFA ALL ZONES UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON WED THU FRI TON WED THU FRI
FLAGSTAFF 050/070 046/073 044/074 080 060 040 040 030 020
WINSLOW 058/077 056/080 054/081 070 050 040 030 020 000
PRESCOTT 057/077 054/081 053/082 080 060 040 030 020 000
PAGE 065/080 064/082 063/083 060 050 040 030 020 000
WINDOW ROCK 053/070 050/072 047/073 080 070 060 050 040 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 060/076 057/078 054/079 080 070 060 050 040 020
COTTONWOOD 065/088 062/092 061/093 080 060 040 030 020 000
GRAND CANYON 051/071 047/074 045/075 080 060 040 040 020 000
GREER 049/067 045/070 043/071 080 060 040 040 030 030
HEBER 053/075 049/078 047/079 080 060 040 040 030 020
JACOB LAKE 050/067 046/070 044/071 060 050 040 030 020 000
NAVAJO N.M. 059/068 056/070 053/071 070 050 040 030 020 020
PAYSON 057/081 054/085 053/086 070 050 040 030 020 000
SEDONA 064/085 061/089 060/090 080 060 040 030 020 000
SELIGMAN 050/080 047/084 046/085 080 060 040 040 020 000
SHOW LOW 059/076 055/079 053/080 080 060 040 040 030 030
ST. JOHNS 054/073 052/076 050/077 080 060 040 040 030 020
WUPATKI N.M. 060/079 058/082 056/083 070 050 040 030 020 000In the hours before
Local storm report, Sep 10, 3:17 PM MST, 4 hours 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA
0317 PM MST TUE SEP 10 2002
TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0245 PM COSNINO AZ 2 INCH HAIL
09/10/02 COCONINO REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER
0250 PM DONEY PARK AZ 2 INCH HAIL
09/10/02 COCONINO REPORTED BY DONEY PARK FIRE DEPTThe office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 5:01 PM MST | Tornado Warning | FGZ | Apache | 29 min |
| Sep 10, 5:01 PM MST | Tornado Warning | FGZ | Apache | 29 min |
| Sep 10, 5:08 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila | 37 min |
| Sep 10, 5:26 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 34 min |
| Sep 10, 5:43 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 2 hr |
| Sep 10, 5:44 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 3 hr |
| Sep 10, 5:45 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Apache, Navajo | 3 hr |
| Sep 10, 5:45 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Apache, Navajo | 2 hr |
| Sep 10, 5:55 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 2 hr |
| Sep 10, 5:58 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Sep 10, 7:45 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Apache | 105 min |
| Sep 10, 8:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 25 min |
| Sep 10, 8:54 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 36 min |
| Sep 10, 9:40 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Apache | 65 min |
| Sep 10, 9:49 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Apache | 116 min |
| Sep 11, 1:25 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Sep 11, 1:25 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 2 hr |
| Sep 11, 12:25 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Sep 11, 12:25 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 110 min |
| Sep 11, 12:28 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Navajo | 32 min |
| Sep 11, 2:00 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 45 min |
| Sep 11, 3:05 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Sep 11, 3:05 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 2 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.