Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
520 PM MST TUE SEP 10 2002

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATER
IN THE WEEK. EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THEN RISE TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...EXTRAORDINARY DAY...WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. EXTREMELY WET AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS BEING
ACTED ON BY A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL. IN
ADDITION TO THIS...STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A JET
STREAK OVER COLORADO WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE CONVECTION NOCTURNALLY.
18Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE EVEN LESS DRYING BEHIND THIS LOW WEDNESDAY
DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...AND WE ARE LIKELY IN FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY THURSDAY BEHIND THIS LOW...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. WILL DRY OUT POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH NO POPS AND
WARM WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. PETERSON.

.FGZ...FFA ALL ZONES UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON WED   THU     FRI        TON WED   THU     FRI
FLAGSTAFF        050/070 046/073 044/074      080 060 040 040 030 020
WINSLOW          058/077 056/080 054/081      070 050 040 030 020 000
PRESCOTT         057/077 054/081 053/082      080 060 040 030 020 000
PAGE             065/080 064/082 063/083      060 050 040 030 020 000
WINDOW ROCK      053/070 050/072 047/073      080 070 060 050 040 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 060/076 057/078 054/079      080 070 060 050 040 020
COTTONWOOD       065/088 062/092 061/093      080 060 040 030 020 000
GRAND CANYON     051/071 047/074 045/075      080 060 040 040 020 000
GREER            049/067 045/070 043/071      080 060 040 040 030 030
HEBER            053/075 049/078 047/079      080 060 040 040 030 020
JACOB LAKE       050/067 046/070 044/071      060 050 040 030 020 000
NAVAJO N.M.      059/068 056/070 053/071      070 050 040 030 020 020
PAYSON           057/081 054/085 053/086      070 050 040 030 020 000
SEDONA           064/085 061/089 060/090      080 060 040 030 020 000
SELIGMAN         050/080 047/084 046/085      080 060 040 040 020 000
SHOW LOW         059/076 055/079 053/080      080 060 040 040 030 030
ST. JOHNS        054/073 052/076 050/077      080 060 040 040 030 020
WUPATKI N.M.     060/079 058/082 056/083      070 050 040 030 020 000

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA
0317 PM MST TUE SEP 10 2002

TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    COSNINO                   AZ   2 INCH HAIL
09/10/02   COCONINO                       REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

0250 PM    DONEY PARK                AZ   2 INCH HAIL
09/10/02   COCONINO                       REPORTED BY DONEY PARK FIRE DEPT