Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST WED SEP 11 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. EXPECT FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS
IS CAUSING STORM COVERAGE OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE COCONINO
PLATEAU TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST.  NO ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OR
DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED. FARTHER
EAST...STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THESE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DOESNT LOOK
LIKE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS TOO LIKELY OVER THE EAST...BUT THERE
WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS WITH HEAVY RAIN SO WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TIL MIDNIGHT THERE. FURTHER DRYING AT 500 MB AND ABOVE
TOMORROW BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH A
5H COLD POOL OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
STORMS. STORM COVERAGE OVER YAVAPAI AND N. GILA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISOLATED. STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE A DRIER FLOW WITH NO POPS
INCLUDED IN THE FCST. MODELS SHOW NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
COOL FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH OVER THE
WEEKEND.

FOR THE EXTENDED...GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED. A TROUGH WILL
PASS BY TO THE NORTH SUN/MON KEEPING THE CWA IN A DRY WLY FLOW. NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL RETURN.
JOHNDROW

.FGZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT COCONINO...APACHE...NAVAJO
       COUNTIES.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON THU   FRI     SAT        TON THU   FRI     SAT
FLAGSTAFF        045/069 043/069 043/070      030 030 020 020 000 000
WINSLOW          053/078 053/079 052/080      040 030 020 020 000 000
PRESCOTT         053/079 051/079 052/080      020 020 020 010 000 000
PAGE             060/079 060/080 060/080      030 040 020 020 010 000
WINDOW ROCK      045/070 044/071 043/072      050 050 030 030 020 010
CANYON DE CHELLY 052/076 051/077 050/078      040 040 030 020 000 000
COTTONWOOD       061/090 059/090 060/091      020 020 020 010 000 000
GRAND CANYON     046/070 044/070 044/071      030 030 020 020 000 000
GREER            044/066 042/066 042/067      040 040 030 030 000 000
HEBER            048/074 046/074 046/075      020 030 020 020 010 000
JACOB LAKE       045/066 043/066 043/067      030 030 020 020 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      051/068 050/069 049/070      050 040 020 020 000 000
PAYSON           053/083 051/083 052/084      020 020 020 010 000 000
SEDONA           060/087 058/087 059/088      030 030 020 020 000 000
SELIGMAN         046/082 044/082 045/083      030 030 020 020 000 000
SHOW LOW         054/075 052/075 052/076      040 030 030 020 000 000
ST. JOHNS        049/074 049/075 048/076      040 030 030 020 000 000
WUPATKI N.M.     055/080 055/081 054/082      040 030 020 020 000 000

AZZ004>018-037>040-111930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST WED SEP 11 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MST...

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
STATE TODAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING. MANY STREAMS AND WASHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE ARE ALREADY RUNNING AT BANKFULL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVER YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT DECREASING THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...

RODEO-CHEDISKI BURN AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE FIRE SITE IS MODERATE TODAY.

INDIAN BURN AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE TODAY.