Flash Flood Warning 256, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
925 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING 2-3 INCHES ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS ENTIRE AREA TODAY.  COLDEST TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING FROM MAVERICK COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF SAT.
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THESE TOPS MOVE EASTWARD LATE
THIS MORNING.  BREAKS TO WEST OF DEL RIO WILL RESULT IN SOME HEATING
CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED STRONGER AND POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS COUPLED
WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM KENNA SUFFICIENT TO KEEP FLOOD
THREAT GOING BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO FORECAST.

.EWX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ENTIRE CWA...THROUGH TODAY.

10/01/JB

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WILL UPDATE FFA AND EXTEND THROUGH TODAY FOR ANTICIPATED AND ONGOING
CONVECTION. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HIGH POPS IN ORDER FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A GRADUAL TAPERING DOWN OF POPS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KENNA...STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MEXICO...WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE PWS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH A
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH INCREASE EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER SOCAL...WILL OPEN UP
AND ACCELERATE EAST...HELPING TO KICK-OFF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WILDCARD IN THIS FORECAST IS A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY STATIONARY NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD UP TODAY AHEAD OF THE PREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND THEN HEAD SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
HIGHS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY HELP TO FOCUS HEAVY RAINS FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS FROM KENNA WILL
BE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE MOISTURE AXIS FROM KENNA WARRANTS A CONTINUING OF
HIGH POPS FOR CWA EWX FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS AND BEGINS MOVING EAST THIS WEEKEND...AS
A COOL SURFACE AIRMASS HANGS TIGHT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS. AT SOME
POINT...PROBABLY LATE SATURDAY...THE MOISTURE FROM KENNA WILL BE
SHOVED SOUTH OF CWA EWX AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK OVER FROM
MEXICO...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN POPS AND PERHAPS SHUTTING THE RAIN
OFF COMPLETELY.

THE BIG STORY AFTER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT HEADING
OUT OF CANADA AND FORECAST TO BARREL THROUGH TEXAS LATE TUEDSAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

11/02/JB

PRELIMS...
AUS TT 073/059 066/055 066 11887
DRT CC 077/060 067/057 068 11454
SAT TT 076/063 067/057 067 11776=