Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CST WED MAR 22 2000

LATEST KMAF 88D SHOWS CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING JUST N OF MIDLAND
AND W-E WARM FRONT ALONG EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD...AS WELL AS OVER
PECOS CO.  KMAF CUSTOM 18Z MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE W/SWEAT INDICES ABOVE 400 AND WET BULB ZEROS
AROUND 10 KFT. COULD SEE A TORNADO OR TWO IN ERN CWA BEFORE THE DAY
IS OUT...AND LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY.  PLEASE SEE SEL8 AND SWODY1 FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.  AM DEBATING FFW FOR AREAS THAT GOT CLOBBERED LAST
NIGHT...BUT WILL OBSERVE STORM DEVELOPMENT FIRST...AS MOTION MAY BE
TOO FAST.  WILL ISSUE AN NPW FOR THE GUADALUPES AS LOW KICKS OUT AND
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER TONIGHT. ALSO...W/COLD CORE DIRECTLY OVER THE
GUADALUPES...CANNOT RULE OUT -SHSN ABOVE 6 KFT 1ST PD.

AFTER LOW EXITS AREA...GOOD WRLY DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE
...PUNCH ALL MSTR EWD...AND FOR WARM TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NEXT SYSTEM ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY...BUT LOOKS FARTHER N THAN THIS
ONE.

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  51/76/46/79    6-00
LSA  41/72/36/75    8-00
E41  52/75/47/78    6-00
6R6  65/83/57/84    5-00
MRF  36/70/35/73    5-00
CNM  45/75/44/78    6-00

.MAF...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT 3/23/06Z-3/24/00Z FOR TXZ258.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT 3/23/06Z-3/24/00Z FOR NMZ027.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082
-258-230600-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 PM CST WED MAR 22 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
   TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN INCLUDING LEA COUNTY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT EAST OF LINE FROM PUNKIN CENTER...TO ODESSA...TO CRANE...TO
BAKERSFIELD...AND DRYDEN.

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS GULF MOISTURE
HAS RETURNED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN ARIZONA. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A HIGH DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY...AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ANDREWS
...GAINES...NORTH ECTOR AND LEA COUNTIES...WHERE SOILS HAVE BEEN
SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AS THE MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING FAST...NONETHELESS LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION EARLY TODAY TO PREPARE SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY
BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABlLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.