Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 1999

SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING TO MOVE/DISSIPATE SE ACROSS N/E PB ATTM IN
ASSOCN WITH WEAK SHRTWV TROF IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING ACROSS AREAS N
OF PECOS RIVER AND INSTABILITY. INSOLATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON AND WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND PWS AROUND 1 TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP. FULL SUN HOWEVER HAS BEEN ONGOING IN MTNS WHERE 85H-7H
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU/SHRA
DEVELOPING DAVIS/GDP MTNS AND WILL LOOK FOR WDLY SCT TSTMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX TO MOVE SE OUT OF NM MTNS SE NM/W TX. MODELS (EXCEPT AVN)
DEPICT A SHRTWV TROF MOVING SE ACROSS NM TONIGHT. STILL ETA/NGM
DIFFER ON WHERE BEST ENERGY WILL COME OUT WITH NGM BEING FARTHEST N.
IF COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP WOULD FEED INTO LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WHICH WILL BE INVOF OR JUST E OF MTNS. ETA IS AGGRESSIVE WITH FEATURE
INDICATING DEEP LAYERED POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTIONS AND WITH PWS
AROUND 1...THEREFORE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS WOULD EXIST
WITHIN COMPLEX. HAVE COORD WITH ABQ/LBB AND WILL WORD LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH LIKELY POPS SE NM AND NEARBY W TX COUNTIES. SCATTERED POPS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE POPS REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES LATE WITH
COMPLEX. WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON FFA ATTM BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
MONITOR. LONG RANGE PATTERN SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRIER PER
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WARM 7H TEMPS.

MAF 60/89/62/93 40/20/20/20
CNM 60/90/61/94 60/30/20/10
MRF 52/86/55/86 20/20/20/-
P07 65/87/67/92 20/20/20/-

GPM