EF0 tornado, Elizabeth, North Dakota, June 7, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
751 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 749 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

We are currently in a local "lull" after earlier
isolated/disorganized convection produced marginal severe hail in
a less favorable environment. The main severe threat will be with
the warm front lifting northward and the severe clusters to the
west of our CWA should maintain a severe threat as they remain
rooted along this boundary following 0-6km mean winds to the
northeast. Axis of 35-45kt effective shear and very steep lapse
rates, increasing BL moisture (Tds over 60) should continue to
support organized severe threat within these clusters over the
next 3-4hr, with hail up to 2". DCAPE 1200-1400 J/KG and 0-3km
shear 30-40kt is supportive of wind gusts to 70 mph as activity
remains rooted along frontal zone. Less certainty if it becomes
more elevated north of the front later this evening/overnight.
Instability decreases late, but MU CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG could
still support at least marginal hail threat, with organization of
the clusters and movement orthogonal to strong 0-3km shear still
supportive of possible surges within clusters overnight that could
break through low level stable layers with isolated strong wind
threat. Will have to see how this activity evolves later this
evening during that transition of air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Fire weather and severe weather are the main forecast challenges.

The warm front continues to lift back northward across South
Dakota late this afternoon. Temperatures have risen back to around
90 along the ND/SD border, but dewpoints are still only around 50.
However, the 60 dewpoints are poised back by Watertown SD now,
extending over toward Pierre. So the front is slow, but it is
still moving northward. With the dry air in place, afternoon
humidity levels have varied from the teens to the 20s. Southeast
winds have picked up to 15 to 25 mph, but really only across
southeast ND. So with these two parameters, near critical fire
weather conditions will continue into the early evening.

The latest high resolution model guidance continues to show storms
developing over north central SD/south central ND in the 7 to 10
pm range. Therefore, the activity may become elevated during the
mid to late evening, north of the surface warm front. This would
favor the Fargo to Bemidji corridor for storms to track after
formation, in the late evening and overnight hours. There is a low
level jet tonight, though it is not all that strong. Some sort of
organized complex is possible, but think the best chances for
severe weather would be during the evening. If a complex does get
going, there could be a severe weather threat during the
overnight hours. There will be more heat and humidity on Tuesday,
with breezy east-southeast winds by afternoon along and west of
the Valley. Did not spend a lot of time looking at thunder chances
for later Tuesday into Tuesday night, but they have been looking
best to the west of the FA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Impactful weather chances will occur a few times this week featuring
tstm risks. Heat will be less of an issue for the most part.

Chances for pcpn and storms enter the picture Wed with moist air and
dewpoints in the 60s result in more substantial CAPES. But there are
still questions about additional forcing mechanisms on Wed and only
general tstms are outlooked at this time. Best chances would be
associated with a frontal boundary looking to push through the
forecast area later Wed into the evening. Thu night into Fri will
offer the next chance for more active weather aided by a more robust
short wave and some low level jet action. A supply of cooler
(relatively) and drier air will filter in later Fri and could well
persist through the weekend.

Temp regime will continue to have above normal readings for the mid
to late week period with highs Wed and Thu above 90 for most spots
before easing back into the 80s for Fri into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Cluster of weakening thunderstorms have transitioned into
northwest MN and will likely fall apart near KTVF. Additional
thunderstorms should spread into eastern ND this evening and
transition into MN overnight. A few of these storms could be
strong/severe with hail/strong winds. Besides thunderstorm
potential, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

MESOSCALE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions will continue into the early
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the early to mid evening, continuing into the overnight hours.
Some storms may be severe this evening, with hail up to 2 inches
in diameter, wind gusts up to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Chances for thunderstorms will exist almost daily. The coverage
and intensity of thunderstorms each day is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
540 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             BUXTON                  47.60N 97.10W
06/07/2021  M0.75 INCH       TRAILL             ND   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

0539 PM     HAIL             HATTON                  47.64N 97.46W
06/07/2021  M1.00 INCH       TRAILL             ND   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN HATTON, RELAYED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
551 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     HAIL             HATTON                  47.64N 97.46W
06/07/2021  M1.00 INCH       TRAILL             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MARK EWENS (KNOX) REPORTS QUARTER SIZED
            HAIL. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
601 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             3 NE ELDRED             47.71N 96.73W
06/07/2021  M0.75 INCH       POLK               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA SPOTTER NETWORK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
852 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             3 N HASTINGS            46.73N 98.08W
06/07/2021  E0.75 INCH       BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&