EF0 tornado, Sterling to Au Gres, Michigan, August 28, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
739 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Thunderstorm intensity is perhaps a little less than anticipated
to this point (especially given the relatively monstrous storms
that loomed just off of Leelanau as the event started). Still,
some brief spin-up looking features is making for some challenging
warning decisions.

Otherwise am fine-tuning timing of precip arrival in gridded and
text products.

Will begin removing some counties/marine zones from the watch (behind
the convective line) in the near future.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...Severe storms, excessive rain possible...

High impact weather potential...severe storms this evening and
heavy rainfall tonight in northern lower MI.

Cold front is very slowly drifting south from the Straits area,
slowed by a wave along the front in ne IA/sw WI. Stratus is slowly
mixing out across eastern upper MI, though additional cloud cover
and even some convection is inbound from the w. A broken stratocu
deck covers a good portion of northern lower MI, with strong
sunshine now seen only near/s of an HTL-OSC line. That hasn't
kept temps from creeping close to 80f under some portions of the
stratocu. And with dew points in the upper 60s, MlCape values are
slowly bubbling up past 500j/kg along and south of M-32, and some
1k j/kg values are merging near and s of TVC. More abundant
instability is seen to our west across WI, thanks to a series of
approaching shortwaves and associated cooling temps aloft (and
despite limited sunshine over that way). Evolution of convection
tonight, including svr and heavy rain threats, is the main
concern.

Overall trends in guidance are similar from this morning. A slightly
slower initiation, and a slight southward shift, continues in CAMs.

Instability will continue to slowly build, aided by deeper forcing
for ascent/cooling aloft arriving as 130+kt 300mb jet ejects across
northern Ontario. We are seeing a tongue of convection develop
eastward just w of GRB. This should continue to build eastward
toward roughly Leelanau Co and the M-32 tier of counties toward and
after 7 pm. Strong/svr cells are possible within this wing.

Trailing very quickly behind that will be the QLCS, making landfall
in parts of nw lower MI toward 8 pm. (A particularly intense cell is
already advancing across w central WI.) Various HRRR runs have had
multiple well-defined, small bow echoes with this section. The most
recent run does not, which is perhaps just a outlier, or is perhaps
indicative of instability not being quite as juicy as earlier
progged. The presence of the cell in w central WI suggests the
former. This line will exit off to the se toward midnight/1 am.
Wind damage is clearly the primary concern, and in nw lower MI
(where instability is highest and DCape is highest thanks to an
earlier storm arrival), some winds gusts appear possible. Some
large hail can also be expected. 0-3km helicities briefly push
300 in far sw portions of the forecast area early this evening.
This would produce some supercellular storm structures, and
perhaps a tornado or two (which our present low LCLs would
assist). Our surface winds are already backed along the Lake MI
coastline (FKS/MBL/LDM); that will be an area to watch.

The window for trailing cells across northern lower MI may be a
smidge shorter than it appeared earlier, which reduces the
potential for explosive rainfall amounts. Widespread 1-2" totals
are still a reasonable expectation, but getting way more than that
will be more difficult. That said, some of the highest amounts
continue to be progged in some of our more vulnerable locales
(Benzie Co into TVC), so will leave the flood watch alone.

Precip will not cleanly end as the business end of the QLCS departs
the forecast area. Showers and even a few storms will be thrown
up our way, as deep convection remains very active downstate. Risk
of sct showers will continue across all of northern MI all night.

Min temps will range thru the 50s in eastern upper MI, and thru the
60s in northern lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...Quieting Down...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The models have the clearing during the
late afternoon, mainly, although the GFS is a little faster than the
ECMWF. However, it looks like the rain should be out of the forecast
area by early Wednesday evening, and skies clearing that night.
Thursday, high pressure will be over the region and the weather will
be quiet and cool.

Wednesday, the temperatures fall by 10 to 15 degrees from today and
remain around 70 on Thursday. It looks like fall is trying to make
an appearance.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Rain shower timing is a little
uncertain. This is the first major frontal passage coming through
for this time of year, and it has a major cool down post frontal.
This could cause issues as the cooler air moves over the the lake
and extends the clouds and rain into the afternoon. However the
drier air is suppose to push in enough by the late afternoon that
skies should begin to clear out.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Extended (Friday through Tuesday)...High pressure builds into the
region and remains until Friday evening, before another system moves
into the Upper Great Lakes late Friday night/Saturday morning. The
cold front moves through during the day. The sky will clear out
overnight and will remain quiet through Labor Day weekend. Monday
night rain comes back into the forecast area late and affects the
region through Tuesday.

Temperatures warm to around 80 on Friday and slowly warms to the mid
80s or so by Tuesday, which will be about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, with the normals in N Lower around the mid 70s and the in E
Upper around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Strong storms this evening. MVFR to IFR cigs with some showers
behind the line overnight, improving Wednesday.

Line of thunderstorms is making progress across nw lower MI, east
of MBL and over TVC as I type. The worst will stay south of PLN,
but APN could get a brief shot of IFR/LIFR conditions later this
evening. After this departs, some showers will linger, as will
lower cigs (MVFR to IFR) into early Wed morning. Much cooler/less
humid air eventually arrives on Wednesday.

Relatively light winds tonight, briefly gusty near storms. An
increasingly breezy nw/nnw wind on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Small craft advisory-level winds/waves on Lake MI will taper off
late today, as a cold front prepares to ooze southward across the
area. However, they will return on Wednesday as somewhat stronger
nw to n winds get ushered. The break period isn't quite long
enough to be worth take advisories down and immediately putting
that up again, so have simply extended advisories on Lake MI thru
Wednesday. Additional advisories may also be needed on our other
waters Wednesday, but there is no need to issue those yet.

Another round of strong/svr storms is expected this evening,
especially near/s of the Manitous on Lake MI. Extreme winds are
at least an outside possibility there in the few hours.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning for MIZ020>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-291200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will cross northern Michigan this evening and early
overnight. Severe storms are possible across all of northern
Michigan between 5 pm and 1 am, though the highest risk is across
northern lower Michigan, south of M-68. The primary severe
threats are damaging winds and large hail, though a few tornadoes
are also possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will also result in locally heavy
rainfall, especially across northern lower Michigan, near and south
of M-32. Localized flooding may develop tonight. See ongoing
flood watch for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon and
this evening.

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JZ

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