Tornadoes · United States · Michigan · 2018
EF1 tornado, Sterling to Au Gres, Michigan, August 28, 2018
From Sterling to Au Gres, this EF1 tornado ran 0.9 miles across Arenac County on August 28, 2018, touching down at 9:14 PM EDT and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $70,000 of property damage.
The rating scale
Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.
EF065 to 85 mph
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
EF2111 to 135 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
EF3136 to 165 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
EF4166 to 200 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
EF5over 200 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.
The record
- Rating
- EF1
- Date
- August 28, 2018
- Touchdown
- 9:14 PM EDT (01:14 UTC)
- Lifted
- 9:16 PM EDT (01:16 UTC)
- On the ground
- 2 minutes
- Path length
- 0.9 miles (1.5 km)
- Path width
- 50 yards (46 m)
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $70,000
- County
- Arenac County
- Touchdown point
- 44.016, -83.706
- Lift-off point
- 44.017, -83.687
- Record number
- 1808281914-01
The damage survey
32 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS APX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 95 mph.
Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.
What the Weather Service recorded
Another line of thunderstorms crossed northern Michigan in the evening of the 28th. This line produced considerable wind damage, along with a handful of tornadoes.
A tornado with estimated maximum winds of 85 mph briefly touched down along the Rifle River, about 4 miles northeast of Sterling. A number of hardwood and softwood trees were knocked over or snapped, damaging a few structures in the process.
A tornado with estimated maximum winds of 100 mph briefly touched down a couple of miles south of Au Gres, and just west of the Point Au Gres Campground. The tornado lifted near near the Lake Huron shoreline. Dozens of mature hardwood trees were snapped and uprooted. An RV at the campground was destroyed by fallen trees. One person was briefly trapped, but was not injured.
From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.
The warnings
No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down.
The county was under a severe thunderstorm watch, issued at 22:23 UTC and running to 01:48 UTC.
| Issued (UTC) | Expired | Product | Office |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 UTC | 10:12 UTC | Flood Watch | APX |
| 22:23 UTC | 01:48 UTC | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | APX |
| 00:29 UTC | 01:15 UTC | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX |
Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.
The forecast that day
The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 00:38 UTC.
SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.
The air that afternoon
The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.
Detroit, MI (KDTX), 00:00Z
1.2 hours before the tornado, 146 km from the path. August 29, 2018.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2227 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -4 J/kg
- Surface CAPE
- 3046 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1131 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 84 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.9
- Supercell composite
- 6.3
- 0-3 km lapse rate
- 6.7 K/km
Detroit, MI (KDTX), 12:00Z
10.8 hours after it, 146 km from the path. August 29, 2018.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -211 J/kg
- Surface CAPE
- 29 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1350 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 149 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
- 0-3 km lapse rate
- 4.8 K/km
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 128 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 01:16 UTC.
Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track
Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.
What was reported nearby
Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.
| Time (UTC) | Report | Where | County | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:50 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | 3 E West Branch | Ogemaw, MI | LAW ENFORCEMENT RELAYED REPORT OF ROOF RIPPED OFF A HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR AND TIME OF REPORT RECEIVED. |
| 00:53 UTC | TORNADO | 4 Ne West Branch | Ogemaw, MI | A BRIEF EF-1 TORNADO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 MPH TOUCHED DOWN 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST BRANCH IN CENTRAL OGEMAW COUNTY. DAMAGE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO TWO HOMES ALONG MUD LAKE RD. TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS 0.17 MILES WIT |
| 00:58 UTC | TORNADO | 4 Ne Sterling | Arenac, MI | AN EF-0 TORNADO WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 MPH BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN ALONG THE RIFLE RIVER ABOUT 3.75 MILES NORTHEAST OF STERLING. TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS 0.40 MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 40 YARDS. |
| 01:00 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | Sterling | Arenac, MI | REPORTS OF 4 HOUSES WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN THE AREA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. |
| 01:00 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | 6 Ene Sanford | Midland, MI | NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS MIDLAND COUNTY. |
| 01:05 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | 2 N Pinconning | Bay, MI | MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS BAY COUNTY. |
| 01:14 UTC | TORNADO | 2 S Au Gres | Arenac, MI | AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 MPH BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN ABOUT 2.25 MILES SOUTH OF AU GRES NEAR THE POINT AU GRES CAMPGROUND BEFORE LIFTING NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS 0.91 |
| 01:15 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | 2 S Au Gres | Arenac, MI | DAMAGE ALONG LAKESHORE INCLUDING BOATS WITH DAMAGE, AS WELL AS A PERSON TRAPPED IN AN OVERTURNED CAMPER. |
| 01:39 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | 1 Ese Caseville | Huron, MI | REPORT OF TREE BLOCKING ROADWAY. |
| 01:40 UTC | NON-TSTM WND GST 42 | 2 Se East Tawas | Iosco, MI | MESONET STATION TAWM4, 2 SE EAST TAWAS. |
| 01:54 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | 5 Wsw Bad Axe | Huron, MI | REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ROUGHLY 6 TO 8 INCHES IN DIAMETER. |
| 02:02 UTC | NON-TSTM WND GST 45 | 4 S Sid Town | Iosco, MI | MESONET STATION SCKM4, 4 S SID TOWN. |
From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.
This ground now
The live radar over the trackEvery 2018 tornado in MichiganEvery tornado in Michigan since 1950Warnings in force in Michigan nowThe forecast where you are
The other tornadoes of August 28, 2018
25 more were confirmed in the United States that day.
| Date | Time | Rating | Where | Path (mi) | Width (yd) | Deaths | Injuries | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 28 | 3:00 PM CDT | EF1 | Marquette, WI | 0.7 | 50 | |||
| August 28 | 3:03 PM CDT | EF1 | Marquette, WI | 1.8 | 75 | |||
| August 28 | 3:17 PM CDT | EF1 | Green Lake, WI | 3.1 | 90 | |||
| August 28 | 3:25 PM CDT | EF0 | Green Lake, WI | 2.1 | 50 | |||
| August 28 | 3:55 PM CDT | EF1 | Fond du Lac, WI | 4.6 | 175 | |||
| August 28 | 4:00 PM CDT | EF0 | Fond du Lac, WI | 0.6 | 50 | |||
| August 28 | 4:04 PM CDT | EF1 | Fond du Lac, WI | 4.4 | 100 | |||
| August 28 | 4:08 PM CDT | EF0 | Fond du Lac, WI | 0.1 | 50 | |||
| August 28 | 4:09 PM CDT | EF1 | Fond du Lac, WI | 0.9 | 100 | |||
| August 28 | 4:11 PM CDT | EF1 | Fond du Lac, WI | 0.1 | 80 | |||
| August 28 | 4:11 PM CDT | EF2 | Fond du Lac, WI | 3.9 | 150 | $169,000 | ||
| August 28 | 4:12 PM CDT | EF1 | Dodge, WI | 2.7 | 100 | |||
| August 28 | 4:16 PM CDT | EF1 | Fond du Lac, WI | 2.8 | 100 | |||
| August 28 | 4:22 PM CDT | EF1 | Fond du Lac, WI | 4.5 | 90 | |||
| August 28 | 4:27 PM CDT | EF1 | Fond du Lac, WI | 4.0 | 100 | |||
| August 28 | 4:30 PM CDT | EF0 | Fond du Lac, WI | 0.0 | 80 | |||
| August 28 | 4:33 PM CDT | EF1 | Calumet, WI | 1.0 | 75 | $75,000 | ||
| August 28 | 4:36 PM CDT | EF1 | Sheboygan, WI | 5.3 | 100 | |||
| August 28 | 4:57 PM CDT | EF0 | Sheboygan, WI | 0.3 | 75 | |||
| August 28 | 7:27 PM EDT | EF0 | Lake, MI | 1.1 | 500 | $100,000 | ||
| August 28 | 7:30 PM EDT | EF1 | Lake, MI | 1.0 | 500 | $100,000 | ||
| August 28 | 7:49 PM EDT | EF0 | Antrim, MI | 6.6 | 70 | $80,000 | ||
| August 28 | 7:09 PM CDT | EF0 | Scott, IA | 4.1 | 25 | |||
| August 28 | 8:53 PM EDT | EF1 | Ogemaw, MI | 0.2 | 40 | $65,000 | ||
| August 28 | 8:58 PM EDT | EF0 | Arenac, MI | 0.4 | 40 | $45,000 |
What this means
Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.
Sources
NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.