Tornadoes · United States · Michigan · 2018

EF1 tornado, Baldwin to Baldwin Muni Arpt, Michigan, August 28, 2018

From Baldwin to Baldwin Muni Arpt, this EF1 tornado ran 1.0 miles across Lake County on August 28, 2018, touching down at 7:30 PM EDT and reaching 500 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $100,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
August 28, 2018
Touchdown
7:30 PM EDT (23:30 UTC)
Lifted
7:31 PM EDT (23:31 UTC)
On the ground
1 minutes
Path length
1.0 miles (1.6 km)
Path width
500 yards (457 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$100,000
County
Lake County
Touchdown point
43.890, -85.830
Lift-off point
43.882, -85.816
Record number
1808281730-01

The damage survey

16 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS GRR, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 93 mph.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A line of severe thunderstorms impacted lower Michigan during the evening hours of August 28th, 2018. Strong winds of 50 to 60 mph were common along the line with pockets of intense damaging winds of 75 to 90 mph. There were also two tornadoes embedded within the strongest winds near Baldwin and Idlewild. The most extensive damage was along US-10 from Ludington to Reed City, with separate areas of intense damage near Big Rapids and Le Roy.

An EF-0 tornado with estimated max winds of 85 mph caused tree and property damage in the village of Baldwin. A few bulidings had collapsed walls, damage to siding, or loss of roofing material.

An EF-1 tornado with maximum winds of 100 mph caused tree and property damage just east of the village of Baldwin near Idlewild. Tree damage was immense with trunks snapped in a narrow zone.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down.

The county was under a severe thunderstorm watch, issued at 22:24 UTC and running to 00:48 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
22:00 UTC06:43 UTCFlood WatchGRR
22:24 UTC00:48 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WatchGRR
23:14 UTC00:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRR

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 19:44 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), 12:00Z

11.5 hours before the tornado, 193 km from the path. August 28, 2018.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2018-08-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 41 joules per kilogram, CIN -407, lifted condensation level 1253 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2018-08-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 138 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 54 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
41 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-407 J/kg
Surface CAPE
29 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1253 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
138 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
152 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
3.8 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), 00:00Z

0.5 hours after it, 193 km from the path. August 29, 2018.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2018-08-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 101 joules per kilogram, CIN -150, lifted condensation level 840 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2018-08-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -62 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 46 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
101 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-150 J/kg
Surface CAPE
88 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
840 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-75 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
4.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Big Rapids (RQB), 31 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
21:35 UTC81.772.5200° 5 kt1012.2
21:55 UTC8172.5210° 7 kt1011.9
22:15 UTC80.672.3220° 9 kt151012.9
22:35 UTC80.672210° 4 kt181012.5
22:55 UTC8072230° 5 kt1012.2
23:15 UTC79.372.5160° 5 kt1011.2
23:37 UTC7972.70° 0 kt1011.9
23:55 UTC76.668.4320° 22 kt481014.6RA
00:15 UTC65.563.7340° 9 kt201013.2+RA
00:35 UTC66.264.6330° 4 kt1013.2-RA
00:55 UTC66.2650° 0 kt1012.9
01:15 UTC65.864.8190° 6 kt1013.2

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 23:28 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
22:45 UTCTSTM WND DMG3 Sse Le RoyOsceola, MISEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
23:00 UTCTSTM WND DMG3 Ne Little Point SableOceana, MIMULTIPLE TREES DOWNED AROUND THE SILVER LAKE AREA. AN UNKNOWN NUMBER OF BOATS WERE FLIPPED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE. RELAYED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
23:00 UTCTSTM WND DMGPentwaterOceana, MISCATTERED TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS PENTWATER DUE TO STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THERE WAS NO DISTINCT PATTERN TO THE WIND DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
23:00 UTCTSTM WND DMGSilver LakeOceana, MIAT LEAST THREE LOCATIONS WHERE TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED ON THE EAST SIDE OF SILVER LAKE. VIA MPING.
23:00 UTCTSTM WND GST 804 N LudingtonMason, MINWS STORM SURVEY TEAM FOUND A ~20 MILE SWATH OF 70 - 80 MPH WINDS WHICH CAUSED EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE. THE DAMAGE STARTED AT TAMARACK PARK AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO LONG LAKE AND EMERSON. POWER POLES WERE DESTROYED ALONG
23:06 UTCTSTM WND DMG2 Ese WalhallaMason, MITREES DOWN ON STRUCTURES AROUND BRANCH TOWNSHIP. US-10 PARTIALLY BLOCKED. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
23:10 UTCTSTM WND DMG3 Ene CusterMason, MINUMEROUS TREES DOWN. SOME DAMAGE TO BARNS AND HOUSES.
23:15 UTCTSTM WND GST 51Mason Co AptMason, MIAWOS STATION LDM, MASON CO APT.
23:27 UTCTORNADO1 Wnw BaldwinLake, MIAN EF-0 TORNADO WITH ESTIMATED MAX WINDS OF 85 MPH CAUSED TREE AND PROPERTY DAMAGE IN THE VILLAGE OF BALDWIN. PATH LENGTH AROUND 1 MILE. MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH AROUND 500 YARDS. A SECOND TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN LAKE COUNTY A
23:28 UTCTSTM WND GST 702 Nw BaldwinLake, MINWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMS 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS DOWNED MULTIPLE TREE BRANCHES PRIOR TO THE EF0 TORNADO IN BALDWIN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
23:30 UTCTSTM WND DMG3 S MeauwatakaWexford, MIREPORTS OF NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.
23:30 UTCTORNADO1 Se BaldwinLake, MIAN EF-1 TORNADO WITH ESTIMATED MAX WINDS OF 100 MPH CAUSED TREE AND PROPERTY DAMAGE JUST EAST OF THE VILLAGE OF BALDWIN NEAR IDLEWILD. PATH LENGTH AROUND 1 MILE. MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH OF AROUND 500 YARDS. THIS TORNADO WAS T
23:34 UTCTSTM WND GST 456 Ene DublinWexford, MIMESONET STATION MC047, 6 ENE DUBLIN.
23:34 UTCTSTM WND DMG1 Ne BitelyNewaygo, MINUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN LILLEY TWP. SOME ROADS INACCESSIBLE.
23:38 UTCTSTM WND GST 541 S BaldwinLake, MIMESONET STATION BDWM4, 1 S BALDWIN.
23:40 UTCTSTM WND DMG3 Wsw CadillacWexford, MIMULTIPLE TREES DAMAGED, SOME BLOWN ACROSS ROAD.
23:40 UTCTSTM WND DMG3 Nnw ScottvilleMason, MITREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN FROM THE LUDINGTON, SCOTTVILLE, CUSTER, AND FOUNTAIN AREAS.
23:40 UTCTSTM WND DMGReed CityOsceola, MIMULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS REED CITY.
23:45 UTCTSTM WND DMG3 Sw WoodvilleNewaygo, MIMULTIPLE TREES DOWN.
23:45 UTCTSTM WND GST 754 Wsw WoodvilleNewaygo, MINWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMS AN AREA OF TREE DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH UP TO 75 MPH WIND GUSTS SOUTHEAST OF BROHMAN ALONG 6 MILE ROAD NEAR EVERGREEN DRIVE EXTENDING TO SPRUCE AVENUE. SPOTTY AND MUCH LESS INTENSE DAMAGE CONTINU
23:48 UTCTSTM WND GST 803 Sse Le RoyOsceola, MINWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED A SMALL SWATH OF INTENSE WIND DAMAGE OCCURRED AROUND WELLS LAKE. DAMAGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE WAS IMMENSE WITH A NARROW SWATH OF NEARLY ALL TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. WEST OF THE LAKE, D
23:49 UTCTSTM WND DMG4 Wnw StanwoodMecosta, MINUMEROUS TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
23:49 UTCTSTM WND GST 80Big RapidsMecosta, MIDAMAGE FROM THUNDERSTORM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 75-90 MPH STRETCHED FROM PARIS TO BIG RAPIDS TO STANWOOD. NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND DAMAGE TO PROPERTY FROM FALLING TREES, WITH WORST DAMAGE CONCENTRATED IN PARIS AND STANWOOD.
23:51 UTCTSTM WND DMGMcbainMissaukee, MICORRECTED DATE OF EVENT. BARN HEAVILY DAMAGED BY TWO FALLING CONCRETE SILOS. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
23:55 UTCTSTM WND DMGCadillac - Wexford CounWexford, MIAWOS STATION CAD, CADILLAC - WEXFORD COUNT ARPT.
23:55 UTCTSTM WND GST 47Cadillac - Wexford CounWexford, MICORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM CADILLAC - WEXFORD COUNT ARPT. AWOS STATION CAD, CADILLAC - WEXFORD COUNT ARPT TO THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.
23:55 UTCTSTM WND GST 55Big Rapids Roben-Hood AMecosta, MIAWOS STATION RQB, BIG RAPIDS ROBEN-HOOD ARPT.
23:59 UTCHEAVY RAIN 1.67WellstonManistee, MIMESONET STATION WLLM4, WELLSTON. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.
00:00 UTCTSTM WND DMG5 E AvondaleOsceola, MITREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS.
00:00 UTCTSTM WND DMGParisMecosta, MINUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE AREA, SOME BLOCKING ROADS. TREES CRUSHED A FEW CAMPER TRAILERS.
00:07 UTCHEAVY RAIN 1.41WellstonManistee, MIMESONET STATION E0269, WELLSTON. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.
00:15 UTCHEAVY RAIN 1.871 Ssw ManisteeManistee, MIMESONET STATION D9113, 1 SSW MANISTEE. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2018 tornado in MichiganEvery tornado in Michigan since 1950Warnings in force in Michigan nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of August 28, 2018

25 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
August 283:00 PM CDTEF1Marquette, WI0.750
August 283:03 PM CDTEF1Marquette, WI1.875
August 283:17 PM CDTEF1Green Lake, WI3.190
August 283:25 PM CDTEF0Green Lake, WI2.150
August 283:55 PM CDTEF1Fond du Lac, WI4.6175
August 284:00 PM CDTEF0Fond du Lac, WI0.650
August 284:04 PM CDTEF1Fond du Lac, WI4.4100
August 284:08 PM CDTEF0Fond du Lac, WI0.150
August 284:09 PM CDTEF1Fond du Lac, WI0.9100
August 284:11 PM CDTEF1Fond du Lac, WI0.180
August 284:11 PM CDTEF2Fond du Lac, WI3.9150$169,000
August 284:12 PM CDTEF1Dodge, WI2.7100
August 284:16 PM CDTEF1Fond du Lac, WI2.8100
August 284:22 PM CDTEF1Fond du Lac, WI4.590
August 284:27 PM CDTEF1Fond du Lac, WI4.0100
August 284:30 PM CDTEF0Fond du Lac, WI0.080
August 284:33 PM CDTEF1Calumet, WI1.075$75,000
August 284:36 PM CDTEF1Sheboygan, WI5.3100
August 284:57 PM CDTEF0Sheboygan, WI0.375
August 287:27 PM EDTEF0Lake, MI1.1500$100,000
August 287:49 PM EDTEF0Antrim, MI6.670$80,000
August 287:09 PM CDTEF0Scott, IA4.125
August 288:53 PM EDTEF1Ogemaw, MI0.240$65,000
August 288:58 PM EDTEF0Arenac, MI0.440$45,000
August 289:14 PM EDTEF1Arenac, MI0.950$70,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.