EF1 tornado, Augusta to Dodgeville, Iowa, May 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A DEEPENING SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE KANSAS CITY AREA...WITH A MAIN SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
UNDULATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO JUTS NORTH OF BURLINGTON AND TO
SOUTH OF PRINCETON IL. SFC BASED CAPES HAVE GROWN TO 1500 TO 2000
J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IN AFTERNOON HEATING.
..12..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...
ANOTHER SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT APPEARS IMMINENT ACRS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA IN TH VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY
AND HEATING MAX. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL TYPE
PHENOMENA WITH SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL UP TO
PING PONG BALLS AND ENHANCED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 70 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH 02Z-03Z OR SO.

HEAVY RAIN ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS THE OTHER THREAT IN THE FORM
OF FLASH FLOODING AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH A
TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD AND IN TIME TO 10Z THU MORNING.

THIRD CONCERN IN NEAR WAKE OF PASSING VIGOROUS CYCLONE ACRS MO AND
IMPRESSIVE TROP FOLD DOWN TO AT LEAST H6 MB...IS ENHANCED GRADIENT
WINDS ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA FROM MID
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TIME OF DAY BEING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MIGHT MAKE IT MARGINAL AND WOULD BE A SLAM DUNK IF SCENARIO
OCCURRED DURING DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL BANK ON THE GRADIENT TO
HELP SFC WINDS MAKE THE SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF 30 MPH FOR A LENGTH OF
TIME. BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE SOME GUSTS OF 38 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
AS WELL. SOME GRAVITY WAVE RIPPLES AS WELL MAY ENHANCE THE GUSTS AT
TIMES TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS
AND IT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION CLEARS LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AN AFTER THOUGH
WITH SO MUCH GOING ON AND WILL PLAY THE CONSALL GAME OF MID 40S IN
THE NORTH...TO LOW TO MID 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA TOWARD 11Z
THU MORNING. ..12..

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME RANGE.

THURSDAY IS THE TAIL END OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE MORNING...AND THEN ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON.  HAVE LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MORNING IS PRETTY SIMILAR.
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WITH THE COOLEST VALUES IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE RAIN CONTINUES LONGEST...ONLY IN THE 50S.  IT
WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE WE MAY MANAGE TO GET A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE QUIET WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES.  THE SURFACE
RIDGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO BE FAIRLY STRONG...AND WE MAY GET AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
BUT...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE BREWING OUT ON THE
PLAINS...AND SOME CIRRUS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST TO SPOIL THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS...WHILE I HAVE
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTH...THE WET
GROUND FROM TODAYS RAINFALL SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT TO CHANCE POPS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES.  SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY
THIS BOUNDARY.  THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK...SO
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE.

THE FRONT SURGES NORTH OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...PUTTING US INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND AN EFFECTIVELY DRY
FORECAST.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA...AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL.  THE FRONT REMAINS IN
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GENERATE
ANY STORMS ALONG IT...SO HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO NORMAL.    ..LE..

&&

.AVIATION...
A SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IS DETERMINING THE
CATEGORY CUT-OFF WITH LOWER IFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME FOG AT DBQ NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...TO MVFR CIGS OR EVEN VFR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. BUT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SCTRD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS TURBULENT FLYING CONDITIONS. AS THE
NIGHT GOES...NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK FROM
20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT CID AND THE
DBQ TERMINALS.  ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-
     JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR JO
     DAVIESS-ROCK ISLAND.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

12/LE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
450 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-261000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL
IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM SAVANNA ILLINOIS THROUGH WASHINGTON IOWA.  THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW THREAT OF TORNADOES.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR OTTUMWA TO
GALESBURG.  WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST WINDS COULD GUST OVER 40
MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DLF/08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1124 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW CALAMUS           41.80N 90.77W
05/25/2011  M1.10 INCH       CLINTON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

1123 AM     HEAVY RAIN       W CANTRIL               40.64N 92.07W
05/25/2011  M1.40 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL PAST 12 HOURS

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW CUTSHAW BRIDGE ST 42.48N 92.07W
05/25/2011  M1.45 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 6 PM MAY 24TH

&&

TAS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
439 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PROSPECT GROVE          40.52N 91.99W
05/25/2011                   SCOTLAND           MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HEAVY RAIN CAUSING CLOSURE OF SECONDARY ROADS INCLUDING
            ROUTES H, A, AND N.

0425 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E FORT MADISON        40.62N 91.33W
05/25/2011                   LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WITH STRONG ROTATION

&&

DMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
442 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             WEST BURLINGTON         40.82N 91.18W
05/25/2011  E0.25 INCH       DES MOINES         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
443 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E CANTRIL             40.64N 91.98W
05/25/2011  M1.00 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL THUS FAR

&&

DMD