F1 tornado, Gould to Garrett Bridge, Arkansas, December 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 PM CST WED DEC 18 2002

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL DEAL WITH THE ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.
RIGHT NOW...HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
POF-HOT-TXK. THIS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. VERY GOOD
WARM ADVECTION AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...HAVE ALLOWED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE
PLACE. STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS ENHANCED THE TORNADIC
THREAT.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND WILL ACT TO PUSH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER IN
THE MORNING...BUT ALL SHOULD BE GONE BY MID DAY AS THE DRY SLOT AND
THE COLD FRONT FORCES REMAINING CONVECTIVE PRECIP EASTWARD.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE
NORTHWARD INTO MISSOURI ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. WILL THUS
CONTINUE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

FWC GUIDANCE FITS IN WELL AT MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
IT...WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE.

.EXTENDED FORECAST (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)....
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OUT OF THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

POSSIBLE INTERESTING SCENARIO SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER OLD MEXICO AND
THE BIG BEND AREA OF WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONT COMING DOWN OUT OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE ANY HEADWAY
NORTHEASTWARD. MORE LIKELY...THE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF
COAST. IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY HAVE AN OVERRUNNING TYPE SCENARIO
SETTING UP OVER US. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SHOW THE THICKNESS
VALUES CLOSE TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUPPORTING SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THAT FAR OUT INDICATE ONLY A SHALLOW MELTING LAYER.

KEEPING IN MIND SOLUTIONS DO USUALLY CHANGE IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUNS...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY WINTER WEATHER UNTIL THE
PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL ACT TO PUSH IT OUT
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

OVER ALL...TENDED TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

FCSTID =   57
HRO   42  57  31  49 /  60  20  10   0
LIT   48  62  35  55 /  70  30  10   0
HOT   47  61  34  55 /  70  30  10   0
PBF   50  64  37  56 /  80  40  10   0

.LZK...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
120 PM CST WED DEC 18 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE...AND ANY SUCH STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES AS WELL AS LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY IN MOST OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS...VISIT THE LITTLE ROCK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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