Tornadoes · United States · Missouri · 2002

F1 tornado, Arnica, Missouri, December 18, 2002

This F1 tornado ran 1.0 miles across Cedar County on December 18, 2002, touching down at 2:38 AM CST and reaching 100 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $2,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. F040 to 72 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. F173 to 112 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. F2113 to 157 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. F3158 to 206 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. F4207 to 260 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. F5261 to 318 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
F1
Date
December 18, 2002
Touchdown
2:38 AM CST (08:38 UTC)
Path length
1.0 miles (1.6 km)
Path width
100 yards (91 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$2,000
County
Cedar County
Touchdown point
37.750, -93.670
Lift-off point
37.770, -93.670
Record number
422

What the Weather Service recorded

Tornado touched down in extreme northeast Cedar County and damaged a barn and an out building.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

25 minutes of warning. NWS SGF issued a tornado warning for this county at 08:13 UTC, 25 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 08:45 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
08:13 UTC08:45 UTCTornado WarningSGF

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a General Thunderstorms Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 04:46 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Springfield, MO (KSGF), 00:00Z

8.6 hours before the tornado, 96 km from the path. December 18, 2002.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2002-12-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 39 joules per kilogram, CIN -55, lifted condensation level 1087 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2002-12-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 267 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 48 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
39 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Surface CAPE
24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1087 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
267 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
432 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
7.0 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Springfield, MO (KSGF), 12:00Z

3.4 hours after it, 96 km from the path. December 18, 2002.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2002-12-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 894 joules per kilogram, CIN -3, lifted condensation level 549 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2002-12-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 425 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 69 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
894 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-3 J/kg
Surface CAPE
185 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
549 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
425 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
449 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.4
Supercell composite
8.2
0-3 km lapse rate
6.2 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 08:35 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2002 tornado in MissouriEvery tornado in Missouri since 1950Warnings in force in Missouri nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of December 18, 2002

38 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
December 1812:55 AM CSTF0Cherokee, KS0.520
December 181:08 AM CSTF0Cherokee, KS0.520
December 181:48 AM CSTF1Jasper, MO1.5100$50,000
December 181:53 AM CSTF1Barton, MO9.510017$140,000
December 182:45 AM CSTF1Polk, MO11.01002$540,000
December 189:49 AM CSTF0Webster, MO0.550
December 189:55 AM CSTF0Wright, MO10.0100$70,000
December 183:35 PM CSTF3Faulkner, AR9.8150113
December 183:50 PM CSTF0Hot Spring, AR0.125
December 183:50 PM CSTF1Faulkner, AR9.1100
December 183:55 PM CSTF2Union Parish, LA to AR20.2110$1.0 million
December 184:05 PM CSTF0White, AR4.025
December 184:08 PM CSTF0Saline, AR0.525
December 184:55 PM CSTF0Ashley, AR1.050$30,000
December 184:56 PM CSTF0Independence, AR2.230
December 185:05 PM CSTF0Lonoke, AR5.540
December 185:10 PM CSTF0Union, AR1.125
December 185:23 PM CSTF0Drew, AR1.030
December 185:32 PM CSTF0Prairie, AR2.075
December 185:42 PM CSTF0Ouachita, AR1.830
December 186:01 PM CSTF1Desha, AR9.050
December 186:08 PM CSTF1Woodruff, AR5.0100
December 186:19 PM CSTF0Ouachita, AR5.730
December 186:20 PM CSTF1Woodruff, AR4.0100
December 187:10 PM CSTF1Caddo Parish, LA2.380
December 187:10 PM CSTF1Prairie, AR8.8100
December 187:45 PM CSTF0Jefferson, AR0.220
December 188:10 PM CSTF0Ouachita, AR5.140
December 188:33 PM CSTF0Jefferson, AR1.225
December 188:36 PM CSTF0Jefferson, AR0.320
December 188:44 PM CSTF0Calhoun, AR0.225
December 188:45 PM CSTF0Arkansas, AR3.050
December 188:48 PM CSTF0Calhoun, AR1.240
December 189:30 PM CSTF0Lee, AR1.025$10,000
December 189:57 PM CSTF1Bradley, AR3.1125
December 1810:20 PM CSTF0Lincoln, AR0.525
December 1810:53 PM CSTF1Lincoln, AR0.8752
December 1811:05 PM CSTF0Desha, AR0.220

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.