A cold front swept through the region Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave neared from the west.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A cold front swept through the region Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave neared from the west. These sources of lift allowed for thunderstorms to develop across the Western Low Rolling Plains and the eastern Permian Basin. These thunderstorms produced very large hail, up to the size of baseballs. Meanwhile, as the front swept through the area high winds were recorded at a couple of Mesonet sites in west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 12:21 PM CST, 58 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
121 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
- A 25% to 55% chance of showers/storms over the northeast and eastern
to central parts of the Permian Basin, and a 15% to 35% chance
from the Marfa Plateau into Stockton Plateau. A few storms be
may be strong, with damaging winds and hail the main threats.
- Strong north/northeast winds are forecast for the SE NM plains into
eastern Culberson County until this afternoon, and continuing
into the evening for the Guadalupes. Blowing dust will reduce
visibility. Delay travel through passes if possible.
- Cooler weather to start the week before warmer than average temperatures
return. Rain chances also develop each afternoon/evening later
in the week into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
An active late weekend is shaping up. Much of the weather across
the area will depend on timing of a cold front developing in from
the OK and TX Panhandles into the TX South Plains, and now moving
through the SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin. Behind the
cold front, expect highs ranging from the 70s to mid 80s F. Ahead
of the cold front, southerly winds are still prevalent, which will
allow highs to climb into the 90s F, mid 80s F higher elevations.
Models have trended up regarding highs over the central Permian
Basin, and observations early this afternoon depict increasing
southerly winds shifting to more southwesterly across the central
and eastern Permian Basin (including the Midland-Odessa area) into
Terrell County. This suggests that the cold front may stall
anywhere from there to along the Pecos River today. If this
happens, we are looking at an increased risk for showers/storms
farther west since the dryline will not be pushed as far south and
east. This will allow for a more unstable air mass to sync with
daytime heating, forcing along the cold front, and a northwest to
southeast developing short wave disturbance to aid in formation of
showers/storms over the northern and eastern Permian Basin into
Stockton Plateau and Terrell County by the afternoon/evening. A
25% to 55% chance of showers/storms will be maximized over the
easternmost Permian Basin, while a 15% to 35% shower/storm chances
also exists over the Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, and we
even cannot rule out of stray shower/storm over the SE NM plains
into Guadalupes. Assuming a slower passage of the cold front, the
chance of showers/storms over western higher terrain will also be
greater, since forcing along the dryline will be in closer
proximity to daytime heating of elevated terrain. SPC has extended
a MRGL risk from the easternmost CWA along the Pecos River and
western higher terrain of W TX and a SLGT risk into the
easternmost Permian Basin, with damaging winds and hail
highlighted as the main threats in stronger storms. Brief heavy
rainfall is also possible. However, given relatively quick
northwest to southeast motion of storms in high-res CAMs and
deterministic and ensemble models continuing to show rainfall of
only a few tenths of an inch at most except for far eastern
portions of the Permian Basin, we are not expecting widespread
flooding at this time in most locations where heavy rain does
fall. The other story as the short wave develops southeast will be
north/northeast winds over the western higher terrain (especially
Guadalupes), sustained at 35 to 45 mph and gusting to and above
65 mph at higher elevations. Accordingly, a High Wind Warning
remains in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and
surrounding passes this afternoon/evening through tonight. A Wind
Advisory has also been issued for the southeast New Mexico plains
into eastern Culberson County until this afternoon, due to
observed strong northerly winds. It is advisable to delay any
travel through passes for the duration of the strong winds if you
are able to. Lows tonight fall into the 50s to lower 60s F, mid to
upper 40s F northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau as the cold
front finally clears the area and CAA sets in.
The beginning of the week is shaping up to be much quieter. Highs
will struggle to reach the mid 80s F, mid 70s F higher elevations
north of the Rio Grande basin, and only rise into the lower to mid
90s F for the warmest spots along the Presidio Valley into the Big
Bend. Surface high pressure behind the cold front develops to the
east of the area during the day, allowing winds to veer back to
southeasterly upslope flow. However, air mass recovery will take
some time to occur, so dew point temperatures remaining in the 40s
and 50s F coupled with highs in the 70s and 80s F will maintain
relatively cool and dry weather for the remainder of the day, giving
way to nighttime lows largely once again in the 50s to lower 60s F.
This cooler weather is virtually certain to be short-lived. Read the
Long Term Discussion for more details.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
The mid to upper pattern will give way to increased ridging and
large scale sinking motion beneath return southeasterly upslope
flow, allowing warmer than average temperatures to return while
drier conditions characterized by dew point temperatures 30F and
below remain farther west. By Tuesday, highs in the mid 80s to 90s
F will once again be commonplace, with lows falling into the
upper 50s to mid 60s F. Mid to upper ridging over the
Intermountain West expands to the east by mid-week, with a warming
trend in temperatures from Wednesday and Thursday through Friday.
Highs in the upper 80s to 90s F, triple digits along the Presidio
Valley and Big Bend Wednesday persist into Thursday, then rise
into the 90s F and above for all but the highest elevations on
Friday, with triple digits along the Pecos River into the Permian
Basin as well as the Rio Grande basin. To give an idea of how warm
it might get, readings near 110F are indicated over the Big Bend
by the end of the week. Lows likewise climb from lower to mid 60s
F, lower to mid 50s F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos
Wednesday night to mid 60s F to lower 70s F, lowers 60s F Marfa
Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos by Friday night. We are still
monitoring the potential for hazardous heat over the area late
next week. However, the building heat will be constrained by
increased rain chances beginning Thursday and continuing into the
weekend. At this time the specifics of what kind of impacts will
accompany shower/storm activity are still unclear, but each day
PoPs 15% to 20% over heated terrain during the day are indicated,
increasing to 20% to 25% over southern and eastern portions of the
area by the end of the weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Seeing strong north winds across the SE NM terminals behind a
cold front with gusts approaching 50 mph. This front will slide
south affecting KMAF and KFST later this afternoon with similar
winds. TS could affect KMAF, but confidence is to low to add in
the forecast for now. MVFR CIGs will develop behind the front
affecting most of the terminals this evening and overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 56 80 58 92 / 10 0 0 0
Carlsbad 56 83 59 97 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 63 84 62 90 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 59 83 60 94 / 10 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 56 76 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 51 81 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 50 80 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 57 82 59 92 / 10 0 0 0
Odessa 57 82 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 57 83 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Eastern
Culberson.
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains
of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy
County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
TXZ046-047-101945-
Dawson TX-Borden TX-
153 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BORDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...
At 153 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Lamesa Municipal Airport, or 10 miles east of Lamesa,
moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lamesa, Gail, Lamesa Municipal Airport, Los Ybanez, Sparenberg, and
Key.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
western Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3277 10117 3253 10183 3268 10200 3296 10167
3296 10139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 234DEG 19KT 3271 10178
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
94The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:18 UTC.
8 hail, 1 flash flood, 1 strong wind, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Public report via an MPING of Ping Pong ball sized hail from a storm west of Westbrook. The total time of occurrence is estimated from radar.
A storm chaser reported Golf ball to Hen Egg sized hail over Westbrook via social media. The total time of occurrence is estimated from radar.
Delayed report from the public relayed by broadcast media of Golf ball sized hail from the west side of Snyder. The total time of occurrence is estimated by radar.
Public report via an MPING of Quarter sized hail in Colorado City. The total time of occurrence is estimated from radar.
Public report of Ping Pong ball sized hail on the northeast side of Snyder. The total time of occurrence is estimated from radar.
Public report via an MPING of street/road flooding. The total time of occurrence is estimated. No damage was reported.
Public reported via an MPING of Ping Pong ball sized hail south of Westbrook. The total time of occurrence is estimated from radar.
Public report via social media of Ping Pong ball sized hail north of Colorado City. The total time of occurrence is estimated from radar.
LANDSPOUT. Location: 32.21,-100.78/32.20,-100.77. A storm chaser reported a gustnado via social media near the intersection of Highway 208 and CR 337 southeast of Colorado City. Based on the report, gustnado was persistent for at least 10-15 seconds, potentially longer. The amount of time it lasted and the distance it travelled is estimated, as are the wind gusts associated with it. No damage was observed.
Multiple MPING reports were received from a trained spotter of Tennis ball to Baseball sized hail along TX Highway 208 10 miles NW of Silver. The total time of occurrence is estimated from radar.
The West Texas Mesonet station 55 5SW St. Lawrence, TX measured a brief period of high winds, including wind gusts up to 62 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1324212, 1324224, 1324231, 1324213, 1324210, 1324209, 1324217, 1324220, 1324233, 1324229, 1323997.