Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 10, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of strong to severe storms likely this evening into tonight.

- Seasonably warm temperatures and dry weather expected Monday and
  the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 518 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of South
Central Texas through midnight tonight. The main severe threats
are damaging wind gusts (some up to 75 mph) and large hail. Can't
rule out an isolated tornado mainly across the Hill Country area.
In addition, locally heavy rain is forecast with the passage of
the cold front this evening and part of the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move northwest
to southeast across most of South-Central Texas this evening into
tonight. The primary severe threat posed by these storms is
damaging wind, with a more isolated potential for large hail and
locally heavy rain. Strong lines of storms can produce wide swaths
of gusts of 50-60 mph with stronger pockets of gusts near and
above 75 mph possible. Frequent lightning is also likely. The
severe risk is expected to be highest when storms first enter the
Hill Country and Austin area earlier in the evening, and the SPC
has highlighted a Level 3 of 5 (Enhanced) risk of severe weather
for these areas primarily due to the strong wind concerns. Storms
should remain strong to severe as they move farther south with a
continued threat for strong winds and locally heavy rain, but the
severe risk is expected to gradually decline later in the night.

An upper-level shortwave trough currently diving southeast over
the Rockies and an accompanying cold front will provide the lift
to trigger widespread thunderstorms this evening. This front is
already moving across North Texas as of early afternoon Sunday and
will be encroaching upon our area soon. There is a low to medium
chance of a few isolated thunderstorms developing earlier in the
day (with mainly a lightning, gusty wind, and small hail threat),
mainly over the Coastal Plains, in the late afternoon and early
evening. The dry- line should also push slightly eastward into Val
Verde County ahead of the approaching front and may itself be a
trigger for some isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon over
the southern Edwards Plateau, but the cold front will produce the
majority of the storm and severe activity. Most models indicate
an initial arrival of storms in the Hill Country near or just
after sunset, starting by about 7 PM, reaching the I-35 corridor
over the following hours and moving across the Coastal Plains
closer to midnight. It is worth noting that storms of this variety
with conditions favoring a wind- driven line of storms can often
accelerate in forward speed during their development, so it is
plausible that storm arrival could be a few hours earlier than the
model consensus. In general, the focus is this evening. The
greatest chances for severe weather for any particular location
will likely be in the first 1-2 hours of storm onset. Stay indoors
and have multiple ways to receive weather information.

The highest likelihood for stormy weather and a more contiguous
line of storms is generally over the Hill Country, I-35 corridor,
and Coastal Plains, where the forward momentum of these storms is
expected to be greatest. There is some uncertainty over the
western extent of the line of storms over the Rio Grande Plains
and areas west of US-83, but overall storm activity is still
likely to be at least scattered in those areas with isolated
severe potential. This evening's storms will likely be moving
briskly, keeping regional rain totals mostly in the 0.5-1 inch
range. However, a few pockets of heavier downpours could produce
isolated and locally higher totals in the 2-4 inch range.

Once the main line of storms and cold front passes, residual
lightning and light rain from the trailing stratiform cloud deck
may continue for a few hours, but will subside with the entirety
of South-Central Texas dry by sunrise on Monday. Light northerly
winds throughout the day will keep temperatures in check, though
temperatures should still warm into the upper 70s (with the most
moderated temperatures in the Hill Country and Austin area) to mid
80s (with the warmest temperatures in the Rio Grande Plains)
under mostly sunny conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Dry and warm weather is expected to continue for much of the week
as a ridge builds overhead and maintains strength. Widespread
highs in the 90s are expected by Thursday and Friday, continuing
into the weekend. The last few afternoons of the week are forecast
to be breezy as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the
Plains. Rain chances stay near-zero for the entire work week, but
some rain potential may start to reenter the picture early next
week as the ridge weakens and a few upper-level disturbances start
to impinge on our area within largely zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms associated with a cold
front is forecast to push across the area terminals this
evening/night period. Storms are forecast to affect the KDRT first
between 01Z through 03Z Monday, then KAUS from 02Z through 04Z
Monday, and for KSAT/KSSF between 03Z and 05Z Monday. Several
hires models show the line of storms bowing through this
evening/night with the potential for strong wind gusts of 35 knots
to 45 knots. Also, large hail is possible with stronger storms.
In addition, heavy rain and strong wind gusts could bring
visibilities to 2 miles. The storms are forecast to quickly move
to the south and into the Coastal Plains after midnight tonight.
The winds decrease overnight, however, stay around the 8 to 10
knots. MVFR cigs are forecast middle of the overnight period
through late Monday morning with VFR conditions returning for the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  81  65  85 /  90  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  81  65  85 /  90  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  82  64  85 /  90  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  78  61  83 /  90  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  85  67  88 /  60  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  79  63  83 /  90  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             67  84  64  87 /  70  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  82  64  85 /  90  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  81  66  83 /  90  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  84  65  87 /  80  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           68  84  66  87 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
458 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ183-102245-
Val Verde TX-
458 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Val
Verde County through 545 PM CDT...

At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Pandale to 9 miles north
of Pumpville to 15 miles southeast of Dryden. Movement was southeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Langtry, Shumla, Pumpville, and Pandale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10176 3028 10117 2974 10140 2975 10142
      2977 10140 2975 10144 2978 10145 2979 10147
      2976 10154 2981 10154 2980 10157 2977 10158
      2977 10163 2976 10164 2977 10166 2976 10171
      2978 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 297DEG 15KT 3025 10165 3008 10173 2987 10194

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Platt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
543 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ183-102330-
Val Verde TX-
543 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Val Verde
County through 630 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles west of Juno to 16 miles north of
Shumla to 6 miles west of Langtry. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Comstock, Langtry, Juno, Shumla, Seminole Canyon State Park, Pecos
River Boat Ramp, Bakers Crossing, Devils River State Nat Area Del
Norte and U.S. Highway 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2987 10176 3027 10136 2999 10075 2953 10126
      2962 10125 2963 10126 2957 10129 2959 10131
      2965 10130 2965 10136 2970 10137 2975 10142
      2977 10140 2975 10144 2979 10147 2976 10154
      2981 10154 2977 10158 2976 10164 2978 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 301DEG 23KT 3013 10129 3001 10137 2980 10167

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Platt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ183-184-110015-
Val Verde TX-Edwards TX-
636 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Edwards and
eastern Val Verde Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 636 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Loma Alta to near Comstock.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Del Rio, Comstock, Loma Alta, Lake View, Amistad Acres, Carta Valley,
Amistad Village, Black Brush Point, Seminole Canyon State Park, Box
Canyon, Diablo East, Governors Landing, Long Point, Cienegas Terrace,
Pecos River Boat Ramp, 277 South Boat Ramp, 277 North Campground,
Rough Canyon Recreation Area, Spur 406 Campground, and Rock Quarry
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Lake Amistad, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3009 10093 2978 10055 2936 10097 2937 10101
      2946 10106 2947 10115 2952 10117 2954 10126
      2957 10124 2962 10125 2963 10127 2958 10128
      2958 10131 2965 10130 2966 10134 2965 10136
      2968 10137 2970 10137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 304DEG 22KT 2991 10090 2969 10113

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Platt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
801 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ184>188-110145-
Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-Edwards TX-Real TX-Bandera TX-
801 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Bandera,
Kerr, Gillespie, northeastern Edwards and northeastern Real Counties
through 845 PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Castell to 14 miles southeast of Yates
Crossing to near Telegraph. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kerrville, Fredericksburg, Ingram, Hunt, Stonewall, Cherry Spring,
Luckenbach, Cain City, Tivydale, Doss, Willow City, Rocky Hill, LBJ
State Park, Kerr Wildlife Management Area, Waltonia, Harper, Mountain
Home, Blumenthal, Eckert, and Crabapple.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9860 3022 9859 3014 9882 3014 9892
      3010 9892 2975 9984 3028 9995 3029 9930
      3050 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 332DEG 40KT 3065 9901 3045 9943 3031 9996

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Platt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
804 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ193-110145-
Bastrop TX-
804 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bastrop
County through 845 PM CDT...

At 803 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rosanky, or 9 miles south of Bastrop, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bastrop, Rosanky, Wyldwood, Circle D-KC Estates, Upton, Red Rock,
Bastrop State Park, Hills Prairie, Rockne, Watterson, Alum Creek, and
Buescher State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Austin San Antonio.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2991 9725 2991 9745 3014 9748 3014 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 182DEG 11KT 2997 9734

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CM