A cold front swept through the region Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave neared from the west.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A cold front swept through the region Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave neared from the west. These sources of lift allowed for thunderstorms to develop across the Western Low Rolling Plains and the eastern Permian Basin. These thunderstorms produced very large hail, up to the size of baseballs. Meanwhile, as the front swept through the area high winds were recorded at a couple of Mesonet sites in west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 4:44 AM MST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
644 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
- There is a low to medium (10-40%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening across portions of
the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos.
- A few storms may become strong to severe this afternoon/evening,
with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.
- Breezy conditions are expected with today's cold frontal
passage, with higher winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
A dryline bisects the Permian Basin north-south just to the west of
Midland/Odessa this morning. It will act as one of two foci for
isolated storms to develop over parts of the Permian Basin this
afternoon and evening. A cold front currently in Kansas/Oklahoma
will push down across the Plains and into the region by early this
afternoon. Timing will be important as a later arriving front may
mean more storms across the area before the front pushes through and
shoves the dryline to the southern and eastern portions of the CWA.
With both the front and the dryline, isolated convection will be
possible and a few storms may be strong to severe capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds. As the front pushes
southward, isolated convection from the dryline gets pushed east and
may congeal into a line of thunderstorms either as the activity
exits the region or shortly after it moves into west-central Texas.
Highs this afternoon will be dependent on frontal passage timing,
essentially, the later the front, the warmer areas will be able to
get. With the current forecast, most areas will reach into the 90s
before the front moves through with the exception of portions of SE
NM and the northern tier of counties in the Permian Basin.
After sundown, most convective activity should be to the south and
east of the region and cold air advection brings lows to near normal
for many in the 50s north of I-10 and in the 60s generally to the
south. The Davis Mountains stay cooler. Strong winds behind the
front will make for difficult travel conditions across the Guadalupe
and Delaware Mountains. For this, a High Wind Warning has been
issued with this forecast package. Post frontal winds decrease by
Monday morning as surface high pressure builds in across Texas.
Daytime highs end up in the low to mid 80s for most with low 90s
down across the Rio Grande.
-Stickney
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Cold air advection continues behind the front Monday morning due to
surface high pressure located over the Southern Plains, filtering in
cooler air. By Monday afternoon, winds become easterly creating
upslope flow as the area of high pressure shifts to the east. This
yields afternoon highs in the 80s for most, except 70s in the higher
terrain and 90s in some spots along the Rio Grande. Temperatures
begin to climb Tuesday as long-range ensemble guidance shows
increasing heights associated with an upper-level ridge.
Temperatures top out into the mid-to-upper 90s by mid-to-late next
week as the ridge axis moves over southeast New Mexico and west
Texas. However, cluster analysis depicts the upper-level ridge
breaking down by the latter half of the week, allowing for a couple
of shortwaves to move overhead. This would yield cooler temperatures
than what is currently forecast and possibly bring chances of rain.
Though this would depend on moisture quality and exact track of the
shortwaves. With that said, there is uncertainty in how hot
tempertures will get late next week and trends will need to continue
to be monitored.
Greening
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
VFR conditions in place at all terminals. Winds pick up behind a
cold front this morning and remain northerly with gusts up to
30kts through much of the afternoon. Isolated storms possible this
afternoon, but confidence surrounding impacts remains too low to
include with latest issuance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 91 56 80 58 / 30 10 0 0
Carlsbad 87 56 83 59 / 10 0 0 0
Dryden 98 63 84 62 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Stockton 97 59 83 60 / 10 10 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 81 56 76 57 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 82 51 81 55 / 10 0 0 0
Marfa 91 50 80 48 / 10 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 92 57 82 59 / 10 10 0 0
Odessa 91 57 82 59 / 10 0 0 0
Wink 92 57 83 59 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 4 AM
CDT /3 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT Monday for
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...93The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The West Texas Mesonet station 164 Carlsbad Caverns NP measured a period of high winds, including gusts up to 65 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1323996.