Drought in Oklahoma, February 10 to 28, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
506 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 502 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

-  Elevated fire weather risk is possible today due to north winds
   gusting to 40 mph
-  Chance of light rain today and tonight for southern portions
   of the area
-  Widespread rainfall is likely end of the week into this weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Latest observations indicate a cold front is currently oriented from
southwest to north-east KS. This cold front makes an entrance within
the next few hours and will be marked by strong north winds sustained
to 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph. A developing surface low is anticipated
to develop near the front over northwest Oklahoma and track across north-
central Oklahoma before exiting our CWA mid- morning as the front moves
into central Oklahoma. This will foster a tight pressure gradient and
continued breezy conditions as the front progresses through the area.
Given the high probabilities of several hours of at least 40 mph gusts
with the evening run of the HREF, a Wind Advisory was issued for northern
and western Oklahoma. Elevated fire weather conditions are a concern
today across northwest, north-central, west-central, and southwest
Oklahoma, and a fire danger statement has been issued for these
areas. Abundant cloud-cover could hinder satellite fire detection
today.

High temperatures have been lowered for large portion of the CWA today
towards the short-term model guidance. Temperatures will range from
the mid-50's (northwest Oklahoma) to mid/upper-70's (portions of north
TX and southern Oklahoma).

As for precipitation, there is a medium-high probability (60% to 90%)
of at least a trace of QPF by tonight for southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas (in the vicinity of the 700 mb frontogenetical zone). The
closed mid-level low pressure system, which is currently spinning along
the eastern shore of the Baja peninsula, begins to open today and expected
to reach southwest Texas this evening. Forecast soundings show relatively
high LCLs (near 700 mb, or 8- 12kft) with a deep and dry sub-cloud layer
which would promote primarily virga and sprinkles (at least initially).
These vertical profile characteristics could begin to modify towards
the afternoon and evening hours, and therefore, POPs increase during
this time frame ahead of the elevated frontal zone. Areas with greatest
chances of seeing rainfall are far southern TX and OK counties near
the Red River with chances exiting late Tuesday night as the upper
trough passes south of our area.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Expect decreasing clouds and colder temperatures on Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, with lows in the upper 20's to low 40's. Mostly
sunny skies, cooler conditions, and considerably lighter northeast winds
are expected on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front and as a ridge
crosses the southern plains. Then, mid-level height falls ahead of a
weak shortwave trough overspread the region and prompts the re-development
of a surface trough late Wednesday. This marks the return of southerly
winds late Wednesday over northwest Oklahoma.

Warm conditions return on Thursday before the arrival of the next cold
front, which has the potential to become quasi-stationary over northern
Oklahoma before being nudged a bit southward on Thursday night. Low
rain chances return to the area on Thursday night.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

By Friday, a potent trough reaches Baja California as a closed mid-
level low pressure system. This system will bring much needed rainfall
to our area this weekend. NBM shows generously high probabilities
of at least 1 inch of rainfall for a good chunk of the FA, with
70-80% chance of this occurring for areas east and south of a
line from Wichita Falls to Fairview to Ponca City.

Southwest flow and mid-level height falls overspreads our region on
Friday afternoon. Mid-level moisture content progressively increases,
and by late Friday, high PWAT values of 1 to 1.25 inches (> 90th percentile
for this time of year) are expected in our area. Widespread moderate
rainfall is likely by Friday night and will continue on Saturday as
this system potentially deepens over our region along with strong low-
level WAA. There is a signal for the quasi- stationary front to remain
in our area as this upper-level system approaches. The southwest steering
flow atop this quasi- stationary surface boundary could lead to training
of showers and storms (though only low instability is forecast).

As is often the case in our neck of the woods, it's sometimes a case
of feast or famine with regards to rainfall (or lack thereof). Given
the high chances of beneficial rainfall (1+ inches), there are signals
that several ingredients could align and lead to too much rainfall in
a short time. So, we will have to monitor for the flash flood potential
as we head into Valentine's Day weekend. As is often the case with closed
low pressure systems, there is at least some potential that this rainfall
event could be delayed by a day or so.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Widespread mid/high clouds expected throughout much of the TAF
period with clouds starting to slowly clear early Wednesday.
Light rain will be possible today and tonight with chances mainly
in parts of southern OK and north TX which could affect
KLAW/KSPS/KDUA. Winds will shift towards the north today as a cold
front moves across the area. Gusty northerly winds are expected
behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  37  61  42 /   0  10   0   0
Hobart OK         58  33  61  39 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  40  65  42 /  40  40   0   0
Gage OK           54  27  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     59  32  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         75  45  66  44 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>017-021-022-034-035.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25