Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 25, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
307 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in severe weather east of I-71 has increased for this
afternoon, with an SPC slight risk expected. The probability for
areawide rainfall and QPF > 1" has increased Friday evening into
Friday night. Confidence is increasing in a significant and long
duration heat wave next week, with heat indices likely near or
exceeding 100 degrees for multiple days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is a chance for a few strong to severe storms east of I-71
between 3 and 7 PM today.

2) Areawide rain expected Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Heavy rain is possible south of US-30.

2) Significant heat and humidity builds next week, with heat
indices likely exceeding 100 degrees, especially in Northwest
Ohio.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper-level trough is moving eastward into the
Great Lakes region (noted on water vapor satellite imagery), with
its attendant surface low into west-central lower Michigan.

Morning convection still lingers near Youngstown area (as of ~18Z)
but should exit shortly. This morning's convection left behind
a slightly worked over environment, but broad southwest flow
should yield quick recovery of the atmosphere. Latest
mesoanalysis reveals pooling of low-level moisture and surface
convergence along and in the vicinity of the I-71 corridor,
which is confirmed by a building cumulus field on satellite,
especially the area south of Mansfield. This is likely where we
see convective initiation over the next hour or two (by 4 PM).
Convection will initially begin as a broken line and shear
vector angled around 45 degree to the forcing mechanism (pre-
frontal trough) may actually favor keeping things
clustered/multicellular initially instead of growing upscale
quickly. We are also seeing additional convection developing
farther west near the I-75 corridor and that may also continue
to develop further.

The combination of strong deep-layer shear and modest instability
expected will favor strong to severe thunderstorms with this cluster
of storms. Primary weather hazard will be strong to damaging winds
within the strongest storms, but large hail and a few tornado are
also possible, especially if storm mode can remain a bit more
discrete.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold front swings through tonight, stalling just south of
the forecast area tonight. Low pressure that develops over the
southern Great Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley moves east-
northeast along this boundary and across Ohio Friday night into
Saturday morning. Overall trends in synoptic features has
trended just a bit farther north, with this forecast package
increasing the PoP and QPF forecast, with a slightly greater
risk of heavy rain and localized flooding for areas south of
US-30. We'll have to monitor trends in the system because a
further northward trend could yield greater impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
An upper-level ridge builds into the eastern CONUS next week as
ensembles key in on location and strength of this feature. The
594 dam 500mb heights will be centered over the Ohio Valley, but
500mb heights will actually be most anomalous over lower Great
Lakes. This will result in significant build up of heat and
humidity through all of next week (at least Monday-Friday).
There is high confidence in most of the area reaching multiple
days of temperatures > 90 and heat indices > 100, with >50%
chance of temperatures > 95 and heat indices > 105 especially
along and west of I-71 (particularly the Toledo-Findlay area).

Sometimes confidence is a bit lower due to thunderstorm chances
but with the positioning of the upper-level ridge, it's
becoming less and less likely that storms develop at least
through Wednesday.

One thing to point out is that the impacts of heat tend to
increase with duration. Heat impacts will likely be at their
great Wednesday onward as we see consecutive days of extreme
heat and very little relief overnight (with lows in the low to
mid 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon, with
deterioration to MVFR and IFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front. Already seeing some convection developing just west of
the region across Indiana, though could also see another area
develop near the I-71 corridor in the next couple of hours. The
highest confidence for direct shower and thunderstorm impacts is
at MFD/CAK/YNG where tempo groups currently reside. Some
thunderstorms could be strong to severe with wind gusts in the
40 to 45-knot range in addition to quarter-size hail.

Elsewhere, confidence in direct tsra impacts are lower, so went
with a brief window of vcts at this time. Following the shower
and thunderstorm threat later this evening and overnight, some
patchy fog may develop, particularly east of the I-71 corridor
where rain is likely to be most widespread, though confidence
remains on the lower end.

Winds are generally favoring a west to southwest direction this
afternoon, 8 to 12 knots. Winds will become mainly light and
less than 5 knots overnight and into Friday. A lake breeze is
expected to develop at CLE/ERI late Friday morning with north to
northwest winds of around 8 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Main concern into this evening will be the threat for some stronger
wind gusts associated with thunderstorms. Otherwise, generally quiet
marine conditions are expected through the weekend and into early
next week, though we will need to monitor wind trends on Saturday as
a low pressure system slides east through the Ohio Valley. At this
point, not anticipating northeast winds to exceed 15 knots.
Following Saturday, mainly light east to southeast flow around 10
knots is expected through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006-260830-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-
on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ007>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-260830-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. A
few storms may be severe with damaging winds and small hail, as well
as brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
329 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ006>008-252015-
Wood OH-Ottawa OH-Sandusky OH-
329 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT OTTAWA...CENTRAL SANDUSKY AND
NORTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 329 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Genoa, or 15 miles southeast of Toledo, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fremont, Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Gibsonburg, Genoa, Woodville,
Elmore, Pemberville, Millbury, Luckey, Lindsey, Rocky Ridge, Clay
Center, Vickery, and Stony Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4159 8347 4158 8306 4152 8297 4151 8299
      4152 8294 4152 8289 4158 8285 4156 8281
      4156 8283 4155 8280 4149 8282 4149 8296
      4145 8304 4143 8301 4145 8297 4142 8294
      4144 8285 4131 8285 4140 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 276DEG 26KT 4150 8339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
415 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ029>031-038-047-252100-
Holmes OH-Richland OH-Wayne OH-Ashland OH-Knox OH-
415 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN ASHLAND...SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...WESTERN HOLMES AND
NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 414 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loudonville, or 15 miles southeast of Mansfield, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millersburg, Loudonville, Shreve, Holmesville, Glenmont, Nashville,
Butler, Perrysville, Lucas, Mohicanville, and North Liberty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4047 8240 4068 8250 4082 8202 4052 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 248DEG 21KT 4060 8234

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
436 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ008-009-018-019-252115-
Seneca OH-Huron OH-Erie OH-Sandusky OH-
436 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HURON...
NORTHEASTERN SENECA...ERIE AND SOUTHEASTERN SANDUSKY COUNTIES THROUGH
515 PM EDT...

At 435 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clyde, or near Fremont, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Norwalk, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, Green Springs, Northern Milan,
Milan, Ballville, Monroeville, Berlin Heights, Flat Rock,
Bloomingville, and Vickery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4138 8244 4116 8249 4121 8313 4139 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 266DEG 35KT 4131 8304

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
439 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ020-021-030>032-252115-
Summit OH-Stark OH-Medina OH-Wayne OH-Ashland OH-
439 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA...EAST
CENTRAL ASHLAND...WEST CENTRAL STARK...SOUTHWESTERN SUMMIT AND WAYNE
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 439 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Wooster, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Wooster, Barberton, Wadsworth, Orrville, Rittman, Doylestown,
Creston, Dalton, Chippewa Lake, Norton, Canal Fulton, Seville,
Smithville, Clinton, Westfield Center, Marshallville, Gloria Glens
Park, Burbank, and Congress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 8212 4088 8224 4115 8177 4084 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 242DEG 29KT 4084 8210

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
503 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ011-252145-
Cuyahoga OH-
503 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CUYAHOGA COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

At 503 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Westlake, or 11 miles west of Cleveland, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Lakewood, Euclid, Cleveland Heights, Westlake,
Warrensville Heights, Highland Hills, North Olmsted, Garfield
Heights, Shaker Heights, Maple Heights, South Euclid, Rocky River,
East Cleveland, Fairview Park, Bay Village, Lyndhurst, University
Heights, Beachwood, and Brooklyn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4141 8149 4143 8197 4150 8197 4148 8189
      4150 8180 4149 8176 4149 8171 4153 8167
      4156 8160 4156 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 269DEG 26KT 4148 8191

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
525 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ021-022-031-032-252200-
Summit OH-Portage OH-Stark OH-Wayne OH-
525 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PORTAGE...NORTHERN
STARK...SOUTHERN SUMMIT AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 600
PM EDT...

At 525 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Green, or 8 miles northwest of Canton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Canton, Cuyahoga Falls, Massillon, Kent, Barberton, Green,
Alliance, Hudson, Tallmadge, North Canton, Louisville, Rittman,
Mogadore, Doylestown, Hartville, Stow, New Franklin, Norton, and
Brimfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 8147 4098 8178 4099 8177 4099 8169
      4104 8169 4123 8143 4096 8108 4086 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 241DEG 21KT 4090 8148

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04