NWS Riverton, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 9:55 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 9:55 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
955 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Atmospheric River snow event begins tonight, with heavy and
widespread mountain snow.
- Snow will have difficulty getting into central WY, but some
improved confidence for light snow for Sunday.
- Strong winds increase tonight and continue through the day
Saturday for a large portion of the state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025
Not much change to the forecast here, as the atmospheric river
event begins to set up across the northwestern US. With a long
fetch of moisture off the Pacific setting up, and likely not
moving much during the next several days, a significant addition
to the western snowpack is shaping up.
Western Mountains: The western mountains are in prime placement
to intercept the fetch of moisture off the Pacific, and snow
will begin to increase early this evening. The fetch of moisture
will be mostly consistent, with one inch of snow per likely
through most of the period through Monday. One brief decrease is
possible Saturday night, but overall, higher elevations will
reach well above 24 inches accumulations, with 60 inches not out
of the question at all. The complicating factor in actual snow
measurements will be the very gusty winds. The jet stream aloft
will likely be reaching 150kts, so winds at mountain tops could
easily gust 50 mph or better through the period, with lower
Jackson Hole and Star valley gusting 25 to 35. This will
bring widely varying blowing and drifting, but the snow mass
across the region will be significantly increased through the
period. Warnings currently run through Sunday evening, but will
undoubtedly need extending as the event continues.
Southern WY (Lincoln, Sweetwater, and Sublette Counties): The
forecast for this area is somewhat more difficult. Some of the
Pacific moisture will be able to reach the lower elevations in
these areas, but temperatures will be hovering near freezing
each day Saturday and Sunday. For Saturday, temperatures will be
warm enough to create a rain and snow mix during the afternoon.
This keeps accumulations lower, with generally slushy
conditions. Once the temperatures decrease near sunset, this
switches over to all snow, with some light accumulations mainly
north and west of RKS. Along with this will be the likely
increase in gusty winds for the region, with gusts 30 to 40 mph
Saturday and Saturday night. This will bring some treacherous
travel conditions. Sunday, models are better noting a warm push
of air northward into far southern WY, with temperatures
reaching 40 degrees along and south of I-80. This switches
precip back to mostly rain for the day Sunday, limiting any snow
accumulations to northern Sublette County. By Sunday evening
when the cold air returns, most of the moisture available will
be shunted to the north. So taking these into account, have
added Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
Lincoln County and the remainder of Sublette County for the
combination of snowfall and blowing and drifting snow. The Warm
air pushing northward will stay in place, with models noting a
considerable warmup for the first half of next week, reaching
into the 40s and possibly 50 around RKS.
East of the Divide: Moisture impacting western WY will have
considerable trouble getting past the barrier mountains to
provide any accumulating precip, but some areas are trending
upwards. The main impact on this side will be the very gusty
winds mixing down from the upper level 150kt jet stream. Winds
have already jumped up quickly in places this afternoon, and
will continue to increase through the night to night and peaking
on Saturday. Widespread gusts 40 to 60kts across central WY,
with decreasing readings for Wind River Basin, the Bighorn
Basin, and the I-25 corridor. Any areas that can get a good
southwest flow going will see temperatures well into the 40s
Saturday afternoon. If we can get the wind to carve more into
the Wind River basin, that will help better mix the cold pool
stuck in the basin, otherwise temperatures will be steady around
freezing during the day.
Sunday, a sfc front will slide slowly southward across northern
WY.This boundary will get to central WY before meeting a push
of warmer air surging northward. The front will stall wherever
these meet. Temperatures north of the front will generally
hover in the 20s during the day. With the boundary fluctuating
across Natrona and Fremont counties, temperatures there will
highly vary depending on the final placement, so could reach
only the upper 20s or reach the lower 40s. The front will also
tap some of the Pacific moisture bringing some snow chances for
the Bighorn Basin and the I-25 corridor Sunday. Models have been
trending upwards with snow for the Cody Foothills, so an
Advisory may be needed in that area for Sunday and Sunday night.
This trend of cold temps north and warm temps central WY will
continue into Monday and Tuesday, but most of the precip will
shut back down quickly, focusing back to the NW in the Absarokas
and western WY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 955 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025
West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals
An influx of Pacific moisture within westerly flow aloft streams
across the region through the forecast period. IFR persists at
KJAC with afternoon wind gusts around 25kts. The primary
moisture plume shifts slightly south by mid/late afternoon
Saturday, leading to only a 40 percent chance of IFR from
00Z-06Z/Sunday. This southward shift also provides an increasing
chance (60 percent) of light snow, perhaps mixed with rain, and
MVFR developing at KRKS in the afternoon. Until that time, KRKS
sees mainly VFR with nearby showers. As for KPNA and KBPI, the
chance for IFR/MVFR steadily increases after 10Z/Saturday with
the heaviest snow between 15Z-22Z/Saturday. Mountains obscured
through the period.
East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals
The strong westerly flow aloft leads to drier downsloping flow east
of the Continental Divide with gusty wind the primary hazard.
Southwest wind 24G38kt will be fairly consistent throughout the
forecast period at KCPR. Westerly wind 14G24kt may briefly ebb at
KCOD Saturday morning before returning by afternoon. As for KRIW,
KLND, and KWRL, 10-20kt southwest surface is most likely between 20Z-
Saturday and 01Z/Sunday with confidence highest at KLND.
Conditions remain VFR through the period, although a few SHSNRA
could sneak off the Absarokas into the vicinity of KCOD Saturday
afternoon. Mountain tops obscured along the Continental Divide.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Sunday for WYZ001-002-
012>015-023>025.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM MST Sunday
for WYZ016.
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for WYZ019-020.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday for WYZ026-027.
&&
DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...CNJ