An active pattern during the month of February 2025 continued to improve drought conditions across Middle Tennessee. Multiple rain events, including a significant flooding event during the middle of the month, brought an average of 6 to 12 inches of rain to the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
An active pattern during the month of February 2025 continued to improve drought conditions across Middle Tennessee. Multiple rain events, including a significant flooding event during the middle of the month, brought an average of 6 to 12 inches of rain to the area. This led to only about 6 percent of Middle Tennessee in severe drought which was an improvement over 30 percent in January. Additionally, none of the area was in extreme drought which again was an improvement from 6 percent the previous month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:38 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1038 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1020 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 - Dry weather returns for the weekend. - 20+ degrees above normal starting Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 729 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 The last round of rain is currently making its exit into eastern TN this evening as an upper-level trough tracks out of our area. Radar does show a line of light showers approaching northern Middle TN. If this can hold together, it would bring additional light rain to northern portions of the area. However, do think that the rain is over for most everyone, which would lead us into a dry and quiet Friday night. Temperatures will be cooler in the 50s Saturday post-front, but a big warm-up is in store thereafter. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tonight) Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Showers continue to fall in Middle TN at forecast time. Relegated to areas main along and east of I-65, expectations are for these showers to push completely into East TN in the next few hours. However, we aren't done with the rain just yet. The axis of the upper low from with system, currently positioned over the mid- Mississippi Valley, will push into the TN Valley this afternoon and offer up additional shower chances through the evening hours. I don't think it'll be widespread rain, so not everyone will get these rain chances, but areas along and north of I-40 have at least a medium chance of seeing some early in the afternoon, then as the upper low shifts further east medium to high rain chances will also slip east of I-65 for the evening hours, especially south of I-40. Forecast soundings are unimpressive, so I don't expect anything strong, but I can't completely rule out one or two rumbles of thunder as clouds are starting to clear out in our west and we should warm up enough for a little surface based instability to build before sunset. Rains should be completely out of the mid-state before sunrise Saturday morning, but not before some pretty impressive rainfall totals are racked up. I was looking at MRMS from the last 24 hours and while the Clarksville area was the clear winner, many seeing 3-4 inches in that area, there's a pretty wide swath of 1-3 inches across the whole mid-state region. I don't foresee any flooding issues with the rain from this afternoon/ evening, but creeks and river have swollen slightly. Port Royal continues to climb and should top out just below Action Stage. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 The weekend ahead looks pretty nice. Saturday will likely be the coolest day over the next 7 days as a pretty significant warmup is in store for us. By Monday afternoon highs will climb into the low 70s for many. This is 20+ degrees above seasonal norms -- and it's not just Monday. 70+ degree readings will be with us through Wednesday when afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid- 70s. Of course, for those following along at home, we always know what that culminates with, right? Say it with me: more rain! Rain chances will re-enter the forecast late Tuesday night and into the day on Wednesday and from the looks of it, are going to be with us for a couple of days until Thursday evening when a cold front finally pushes through the TN Valley. Without much energy aloft, I don't currently expect anything other than occasional rumbles of thunder at any point Wednesday or Thursday, but forecast sounding are worth watching over the next few days. Lapse rates nearing 7.0 deg/km, some minimal MUCAPEs and deep layer shear values of 35-45 kts are nothing to sneeze at, so stay tuned on that. Temperatures should respond to the frontal passage on Thursday, cooling things off again, but I don't see any freezing temperatures in the crystal ball any time soon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 VFR conditions remain in place at this time. A deck of low stratus will be moving in from the northwest overnight that will bring widespread low MVFR to high IFR cigs at all terminals. These cigs will be in place through most of the taf period as a cold front works through the area. Periods of patchy fog will be possible overnight, mainly at CSV and SRB where it will take longer for clouds to build in. Winds will be shifting throughout the period, but will remain generally less than 5 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 43 54 42 67 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 41 51 42 67 / 10 0 0 0 Crossville 39 50 37 60 / 60 0 0 0 Columbia 42 54 41 66 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 41 51 39 63 / 60 0 0 0 Jamestown 39 48 37 61 / 70 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 41 54 41 65 / 40 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 42 54 40 65 / 30 0 0 0 Waverly 41 52 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Baggett
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
17 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to abnormally dry to moderate drought across Giles County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to abnormally dry across Lawrence County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to abnormally dry to moderate drought across Maury County in February.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from January 2025 improved to moderate to severe drought across Marshall County in February.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from January 2025 improved to moderate to severe drought across Bedford County in February.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from January 2025 improved to moderate to severe drought across western Coffee County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to abnormally dry to moderate drought across Rutherford County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to abnormally dry to moderate drought across Overton County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to abnormally dry to moderate drought across Putnam County in February.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from January 2025 improved to moderate to severe drought across Cumberland County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to just abnormally dry across DeKalb County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to abnormally dry to moderate drought across White County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to just abnormally dry across Cannon County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to just abnormally dry across Warren County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to abnormally dry to moderate drought across Van Buren County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to just abnormally dry across Grundy County in February.
Severe drought conditions from January 2025 improved to abnormally dry to moderate drought across Fentress County in February.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1230167, 1230168, 1230169, 1230170, 1230171, 1230172, 1230173, 1230174, 1230175, 1230176, 1230177, 1230178, 1230179, 1230180, 1230181, 1230182, 1230183.