NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 4:13 PM MST, 7 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 4:13 PM MST, 7 hours 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
413 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A winter storm will continue to impact northern Utah
through the weekend and into Monday. Another winter storm will
bring windy conditions to western Utah Monday and Tuesday,
followed by another round of snow to the higher terrain
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Tuesday)...Moisture advection associated
with an atmospheric river event continues to push eastward into
northern Utah this afternoon. Expect precipitation to begin across
the northern mountains, particularly the west faces of the Wasatch
north of Ogden between 5 and 7 PM, spreading south with time this
evening. Dewpoint depressions are stout for the northern valleys,
so it will take some time to see precipitation to the surface,
especially with low precipitation intensities.
Initially, snow levels will start between 5000-5500 feet,
gradually rising through the day Saturday. By Saturday afternoon,
snow levels will be nearing 6000 feet north of I-80, 6500 feet
south of I-80. This will gradually change any remaining snow to
rain for most of the Wasatch Back, though Park City could linger
with rain/snow mix or even snow at times into Saturday evening. By
Sunday afternoon, snow levels will be near 7000 feet near the
Idaho border to near 8500 feet across the southern Wasatch
Mountains. This will change some high elevation areas over to rain
on Sunday, particularly below 8000 feet.
The period of strongest lift/heaviest precipitation looks to be after
midnight tonight until next midnight Saturday night, especially
for mountain ranges that do well in west to west-southwest flow.
Precipitation will continue through the day Saturday and gradually
end from south to north Monday morning into Monday afternoon.
Snow will become increasing dense across the higher terrain of
northern Utah Saturday into Sunday. With snow ratios near 5 to
6:1 at times, snow will eventually be more reminiscent of typical
Sierra Nevada snow, rather than typical Wasatch snow. Expect a
general 1 to 2 feet for most northern mountain locations, with up
to 3 feet in the upper Cottonwoods, high Uintas, Ben Lomond area
and up to 5 feet in the Bear River Range. Wasatch Back locations
will range from trace to 2 in lower valleys to 2 to 7 inches Park
City, Kamas, Francis, up to 10 inches for Eden and Liberty. The
Bear River Valley of Utah, Bear Lake area and western Uinta County
will see 2 to 6 inches or so.
Winter driving conditions can be expected on most mountain routes
across northern Utah, with the Cottonwoods, Sardine Summit, and
Logan Summit being the most impacted routes. Lower elevation
routes like Parleys and roads around the Park City area may be
impacted through at least early Saturday afternoon. Patchy blowing
snow will also be possible for the Logan Summit area (US-89) and
I-80 through Uinta County, WY.
Headlines remain unchanged with the exception of shifting the
Winter Weather Advisory for the Wasatch Plateau and Book Cliffs
earlier to account for snow arriving faster than previously
forecast. Otherwise, going winter weather products continue.
Latest model runs keep the Cache Valley as mostly if not all rain,
with little precipitation in the western Uinta Basin. Both of
these areas will need to be monitored if snow levels are lower
than forecast. There appears to be little threat of freezing rain
in any location across northern Utah.
.LONG TERM (After 00Z Tuesday)...The longwave trough that brings
the atmospheric river (AR) event through the weekend will eject
inland next week. Models are in good agreement that instead of the
whole system tracking inland, there will be shortwave energy
breaking off the trough that will track into southwest Wyoming and
Utah. Compared to the AR event, these shortwaves will be drier,
but still bring enough moisture for substantial precipitation,
colder, and reach further south.
Warmer than normal conditions will last through Tuesday, with
gusty southwest flow ahead of the aforementioned longwave trough.
Valley temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for most of Utah
with 70s for lower Washington County. Southwest winds will gust in
excess of 30 mph for much of southern Utah. The AR event will
largely have tracked northward, but isolated to scattered rain and
snow showers will last through the day for southwest Wyoming and
northern Utah.
Shortwave energy will track in from the northwest Wednesday. The
associated cold front will most likely track into northern Utah
during the morning and track south and east through the day. That
will bring forcing and moisture for continued precipitation for
much of southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. The storm will lower
temperatures some 10-20F from Tuesday, but valley conditions will
be warm enough to where minimal, if any snow accumulation is
likely through the day. Northern mountain snow accumulation will
exceed 12" for locations with upslope orographic enhancement from
the northwest. Valley and mountain precipitation will generally be
lighter further south, but light totals will extend into much of
southern Utah.
Confidence decreases after that shortwave, but there will most
likely be another as the aforementioned longwave trough ejects
inland Friday or into the weekend, which would bring valley rain
and snow and mountain snow.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC... Occasionally gusty winds will prevail at KSLC
predominately out of the south, though occasional influence from
the lake breeze may produce winds out of the west-northwest before
becoming true southerly around 03-06z lasting through the
remainder of the period. Light rain with lowered CIGs will arrive
later this evening resulting in reduced vsbys and mountain
obscurations lasting through the remainder of the TAF period.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING... Winds w ill prevail out of
the south for the remainder of the TAF period across all sites
ahead of an approaching system with occasional terrain-driven
influences at KPVU, KHCR, and our southern UT sites. Rain will be
the main precipitation type across all of our northern sites,
though KHCR will see snow initially before transitioning to a
rain-snow mix during the evening tomorrow. KEVW will see a
prolonged period of light snow, though gusty winds will bring
vsbys down notably through the period.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Saturday for UTZ108.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Sunday for UTZ109.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for UTZ110.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Monday
for UTZ111-112.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM MST
Sunday for UTZ113.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
Sunday for WYZ021.
&&
Kruse/Wilson/Worster/Traphagan
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