Dust Storm and High Wind in Texas, March 4, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
529 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

 - Dangerous high wind event today with a risk of wind gusts to 70
   mph.

 - A risk of dust storm conditions will exist today.

 - Critical fire weather expected area wide today.

&&

.DISCUSSION... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 234 PM CST
Mon Mar 3 2025

A potent upper level storms system is making its way through eastern
Colorado early this morning and this will provide for a notable
wind event across West Texas. By sunrise this morning, the parent
low should be centered roughly to our north over southwestern
Kansas. Given the strength of the system, we are perhaps
marginally fortunate in that a slower trajectory would likely
have yielded an even more volatile wind scenario than what we will
be dealing with already. The system should make its way up into
the Great Lakes region by mid-day Wednesday as we start to come
under the influence of gentle ridging out west and increasingly
zonal flow into Thursday. As that happens, the next weather maker
will dive south along the Pacific Coast with a complex multi-
lobed morphology noted over the northern Rockies late this week
evolving into a closed (or nearly so) low near the Four Corners by
Friday evening. Thus far, most solutions track this system
straight into the Texas Panhandle for the weekend.

In terms of sensible weather, today will probably be the least
palatable of the next seven days as a flavor of dust will abound.
Winds will ramp up later this morning and are expected to exceed
high wind criteria across most, if not all our counties. The
decision to upgrade on the evening shift yesterday continues to
look like a sound decision based on the available data. Have
elected to go with NBM95th percentile which actually remains just
a bit lower than LAMP which has been doing rather well with speeds
as of late. Traditionally, we see some variability in the
guidance late on the day before high winds events and given how
things appear with the wrapped up cyclone in WRN KS, will edge on
the higher side of guidance. There is a bit of a fly in the
ointment as guidance shows a slug of mid-level moisture being
ejected from southeastern Colorado here over the next few hours
which would yield potential for virga showers in the 15-18Z time
period. Attempting to correlate this feature, with the higher
clouds over COs, I am failing to see this shot of moisture
materializing as advertised. This moisture would be problematic on
a couple of levels. Certainly, the clouds would serve to inhibit
some degree of downward mixing of the free-flow winds above the
moist layer as well as introduce the prospect of downburst
producing virga. As such, will wait to see if this advertised
moisture around H7 manifests in a manner that would have a notable
impact and adjust the forecast accordingly. That aside, we're
still expecting a high wind day with the potential of gusts up in
the 60 to 70 mph range this afternoon. See the FIRE WX section for
more insight on the fire weather concerns.

Winds will slowly diminish this evening with much more typical
southerly winds on tap for the period Wednesday through Friday.
Scant little low and mid-level moisture is indicated until late
Friday / Saturday as the aforementioned upper level low tracks into
the area. At this point, there looks to be an opportunity of a
wintry mix under the core of the low, but let's get this windbag
system behind us before we put much diagnosis into that solution.

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

Very strong west-to-northwesterly winds sustained near 35 kts
will persist at all sites through this evening. Periods of reduced
visibility due to blowing dust is also possible. VFR CIGs will
continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1257 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

Primary concern today will be winds and their associated ability to
trigger fires from downed power lines.  Based on the latest data,
the areas which may end up with some of the highest wind speeds
(perhaps up toward Childress) are also experiencing mildly lower
volatile fuel moistures.  Still, given sustained winds of 40-45 mph
and gusts as high as 70 mph, any established fire will have the
potential for rapid spread. RH values this afternoon should be
marginally better than we saw on Monday with values ranging from
15 to 25 pct.  We'll see a couple of discrete wind shifts. Early
this morning, mostly westerly winds are indicated with a shift, by
late morning, to a northwesterly direction. Then, toward sunset,
we should see a more northerly direction evolve. Some incoherent
variability may be situated INVOF a surface boundary across the
southwestern south plains where surface wind fields may become
more complex. Still, the general trend will be toward a more
northerly direction around sunset with slowly decreasing wind
speeds into the overnight hours.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>044.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening
for TXZ021>044.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
113 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

TXZ021>044-050715-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
113 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning are in effect today for
northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph along with a few gusts to 70 mph.
Blowing dust is likely during the day with localized dust storm
conditions in the South Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

A risk of wintry precipitation may return late Friday into Saturday.