High Wind and Strong Wind in Texas, April 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
617 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Well above normal temperatures and breezy to windy conditions are
expected today through Thursday across Deep South Texas. A 500mb
trough continues to deepen into the Desert SW with a series of
surface low pressure systems swinging through the Southern Plains,
this will maintain dry conditions locally with an enhanced pressure
gradient, setting up strong LLJs along the lower Texas coast, with
45 to 55 kts at 850mb.

DESI probabilities nudge above 70 percent for wind gusts over 40 mph
through this morning across the lower valley and lower Texas coast,
less than 30 percent for wind gusts over 45 mph, with sustained
winds likely falling below 30 mph. Still, a brief Wind Advisory may
be needed from 9 or 10 AM through 1 or 2 PM across Cameron County if
stronger winds do mix down to the surface after sunrise. For winds,
ran with a blend of NBM75 and NBM90 for inland areas today through
Thursday, hand editing across Cameron County where necessary. Winds
should remain breezy overnight and increase once again into Thursday
afternoon, with gusts to 35 mph.

Highs range from the low to mid 90s east into the low 100s west
today, only dropping a couple of degrees on Thursday, mainly east.
If winds turn more SSW this morning into this afternoon,
temperatures will rise quickly across the lower valley due to
downsloping and mid to upper 90s may be achievable.

There is a high risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast
until further notice.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key Messages:

* Unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions are expected to
  take place Thursday night through Friday; widespread moderate
  Heat Risk is expected on Friday with heat indices between
  100-105F degrees.

* A cold front passes through on Saturday; isolated showers and
  thunderstorms are possible along with gusty winds out of the
  northeast.

* Behind the cold front, unseasonably cool temperatures are
  expected beginning Saturday night into Sunday.

* Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist
  through the weekend, before improving early next week.

A changeable weather pattern is expected to take shape during the
extended. A sfc cold front will be the main driver in this
changeable pattern. Ahead of the cold frontal passage on
Saturday, unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will take
place across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Behind
the cold front, unseasonably cool conditions will occur.

We start off the long-term period Thursday night where a mid-upper
trough will be situated over the Southwestern U.S. As this feature
gradually shifts eastward, it will drive a sfc cold front
southeastward into Texas and towards Deep South Texas over the
weekend and into next week.

Before the cold front arrives however,southwesterly winds aloft
and southeasterly winds at the sfc will result in persistent moist
and warm air advection (WAA). Furthermore, an enhanced sfc
pressure gradient and strong 850 mb low level jet (LLJ) winds
sampled between 45-50 kts will translate to moderately strong
south-southeast winds that may warrant the issuance of a Wind
Advisory Thursday night into Friday.

Given the situation, unseasonably warm temperatures with elevated
humidity values will continue Friday into Saturday. Daytime high
temperatures on Friday are progged to climb into the 90s across
much of Deep South Texas (80s near/along the coast and triple
digit heat far northwest across northwestern Zapata County). With
dewpoint temps in the 70s, a moderate Heat Risk will be present
for much of the region on Friday with heat indices ranging between
100-105F degrees. During the day on Saturday, the aforementioned
mid-upper low over the Southwestern U.S. will continue to
translate eastward and will help to drive a cold front south-
southeastward through Deep South Texas. Just before the cold front
arrives, high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to
lower 90s (slightly cooler than Friday).

While the cold front is expected to be mainly dry due to limited
instability and moisture, a few showers and thunderstorms are
possible along the cold front. Behind the cold fropa, cooler and
drier than normal conditions are expected.  Sunday and Monday will
be amongst the coolest days of the week with high temperatures in
the 70s across the region. Overnight lows are also expected to be
near normal levels, but maybe slightly cooler than normal.
Overnight lows are expected to climb into the Saturday night and
Sunday night are expected to be in the 50s across much of the
area. Monday night is expected to be the coolest night of the
period with overnight lows in the upper 40s across the Northern
Ranchlands and the low to mid 50s along the Rio Grande Valley.

Temperatures look to rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime
highs in the 70s and 80s returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through this
evening before MVFR ceilings return overnight. Southeasterly winds
will remain breezy to windy through most of the TAF period,
with the strongest gusts associated with a 50 to 55 kt low level
jet this morning into early this afternoon from west to east. Have
continued wind shear in TAFs to help highlight the threat, even
though there is already better mixing occurring and surface wind
gusts could reach 34 kts or slightly higher. Wind Advisories and
AWWs may be needed late this morning into this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Now through Thursday....An enhanced pressure gradient due to low
pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will
maintain elevated winds across all coastal waters, driving
elevated seas and adverse marine conditions. Small Craft
Advisories have been extended and will likely continue until
further notice.

Thursday night through Wednesday....Strong south-southeast winds
ahead of the cold front will result in adverse to hazardous marine
conditions Thursday night through Friday. Following the cold
frontal passage on Saturday, strong northerly winds are expected
to develop leading to continued adverse to hazardous marine
conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions due to these strong
winds and elevated seas will persist from Thursday night through
the weekend. By Monday, these winds are expected to subside
giving way to moderate seas. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next
week, favorable marine conditions are finally expected with low
to moderate seas and winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio
Grande Valley, water levels across both the Arroyo Colorado and Rio
Grande remain elevated and both the main floodway and north floodway
are flowing.

The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting
18.03 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting
12.62 ft and falling.

The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0
ft around 12 PM Friday and crested at 54.04 ft early Sunday morning,
just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito
have fallen to 49.10 ft and are expected to fall back below action
stage of 44.0 ft this afternoon.

The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of
24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday afternoon, and crested at 24.71 ft
Tuesday afternoon. Water levels at Lower Brownsville have fallen to
24.56 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 24.0 ft
late this afternoon or early this evening.

The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 18.40 ft and
falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 12.03 ft
and falling.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  90  76  89 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               73  93  75  91 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 75  97  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  82  75  80 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  90  74  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...56-Hallman