Tornadoes and Flooding in Ohio, April 2 to 3, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
703 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms this morning will become more
  numerous this afternoon and evening. A few storms this morning
  could contain small hail.

- Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening. All severe hazards are possible including damaging
  winds, large hail, and tornadoes, especially along and south
  of the US 24 corridor.

- Windy outside of any showers and storms, with gusts to 35 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Near term, dvlpg convection acrs cntrl IL will expand northeastward
through daybreak in response to continued/sharp low level moisture
advection. In time, overspread of better low level theta-e ridge
beneath at least modest mid lvl lapse rates will promote some small
hail risk with elevated storms within nwd advancing srn flank of
storms later this morning.

Focus then turns to potentially more active period this
evening. Severe risk remains conditional owing to debris cloud
cover, morning convective overturning, poor mid lvl lapse rates
and limited low level theta-e plume. Exception lies south of
US24 where more vigorous diurnal heating is likely to occur and
generally removed from any spoiler morning storms and where
better overlap of the parameter space for supercells exists.
Regardless volatile kinematic env in place by evening with
extreme 0-3km shear present as denoted in all cam based
hodographs warrants much caution this evening.

Otherwise cold frontal boundary sweeps through the area this evening
downstream of intense cyclone lifting through the upper midwest. Mid
lvl dryslot and mixing will promote a mild and windy day Thu post
frontal. Sfc boundary stalls down near the OH river late Thu in
response to primary upper trough hanging back over the desert
southwest. This pronounced wave will eject out into the srn plains
Sat and mix frontal zone back north into the OH valley late Fri-late
Sat with likely several rounds of deep convection and some flood
risk in at least far srn zones.

More pronounced mean troughing dvlps thereafter through ern Canada
which in turn yields much cooler wx next week with showers at times
as a series of upper disturbances drop down through amplifying ern
NOAM flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 702 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Area of showers and thunderstorms has blossomed over both TAF
sites and will persist for at least the first few hours of the
period. Vsbys have been impacted with the activity, but cigs
have generally behaved thus far. Some indications that precip
could either linger or redevelop early afternoon especially at
KSBN. TAFs do not reflect this for now, but trends will need to
be watched. Line of storms as well as some activity ahead of the
line is still expected later this afternoon and evening. A
period of MVFR/IFR is possible as they pass.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Fisher

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
405 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-030900-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
405 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 /305 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this morning. While severe weather is not
expected, a few storms may produce small hail.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon with
a risk for hail and damaging winds. In addition isolated tornadoes
appear possible this evening along and south of the US 24 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional rounds of rainfall are possible late Friday through late
Saturday. Additional significant rainfall could lead to some areal
flooding concerns across portions of northeast Indiana into northwest
Ohio.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is probable this afternoon and evening.

LMZ043-046-030900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
405 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through much of today. Small
hail and wind gusts to 35 knots are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected.