A very active weather pattern continued across Middle Tennessee during March 2025 which continued to improve drought conditions across the area. Severe drought conditions were reduced to 0 percent of the area by the middle of the month with only moderate drought across roughly 7 percent of the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A very active weather pattern continued across Middle Tennessee during March 2025 which continued to improve drought conditions across the area. Severe drought conditions were reduced to 0 percent of the area by the middle of the month with only moderate drought across roughly 7 percent of the area. By the end of March, less than 5 percent of the area was classified as only abnormally dry.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 10:58 PM CST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1058 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1057 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 - Cooler temperatures on the way behind a cold front this morning, winds become northwesterly and breezy at times this afternoon. - Elevated fire danger this afternoon with low relative humidity and 10-15 mph northwest winds, gusting up to 25 mph. - High chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night, but confidence remains low on severe weather potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 A moisture starved cold front is knocking on the door, and this will progress quickly through Middle Tennessee throughout the overnight and morning hours. As such, expect a noticable wind shift with a northwesterly breeze and cold advection through the day. Highs in the upper 40s to the upper 50s are forecast, with dewpoints dropping into the 10s and 20s during the afternoon and evening. The dry air and gusty winds will also bring about continued fire weather concerns, mainly during the afternoon hours. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley on Sunday with northwesterly flow aloft extending through the region on the backside of the upper-level trough. It appears the surface high will center near KY Sunday afternoon, so winds will be light and variable overall. This is good news since RHs will once again drop, generally 20-30% during the afternoon, despite cooler temperatures. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid 20s across the Plateau, to the lower 30s westward near the Tennessee River. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 We have a pair of disturbances to impact the region during the long-term. The first will be a relatively weak system near Middle TN on Monday, which will be battling dry air and a shortwave ridge. This system is the current upper-low off the California Baja. Rain chances with this disturbance is low, but not zero. Otherwise, Monday will be a warm-up compared to the weekend. Thereafter, a much more potent/dynamic disturbance is forecast to impact a broad region from the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and pretty much most of the eastern CONUS, Tuesday into Wednesday. Medium-range guidance continues to depict a strong, southerly low-level jet across the Mid South Tuesday afternoon which will support abundant warm advection and wind shear ahead of the advancing cold front and mid-level jet streak. PoPs remain very high in anticipation of a line of convection moving across Middle TN late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. However, guidance still remains somewhat unclear on how boundary layer moisture recovers ahead of the convection. In fact, dewpoints may remain in the 50s through the event, and best dewpoints appear to align with unfavorable lapse rates yielding little to no instability on current guidance. This would suggest our severe threat remains low, and confidence on severe weather potential remains low as a result. However, we're still 4 days from the event, and forecast details will certainly change and be refined in the coming days. It certainly looks like a widespread chance for rain, though, as well as gusty winds. Thankfully the system is transient and flooding is not a major concern at this time either. The rest of the period seems to bring more ups and downs, with an active jet stream remaining stretched across the CONUS. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Surface winds remain gusty across Middle Tennessee as we head into the overnight period. A dry fropa will occur during the next couple of hours that will cause a wind shift to the NW. Also, there are some LLWS remarks in the TAFs where criteria are met owing to increased near-surface winds in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Winds will remain gusty tomorrow, but at least we can enjoy VFR wx for the foreseeable future. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 45 52 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 41 48 25 46 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 40 48 20 44 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 43 54 25 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 41 49 23 43 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 40 47 20 42 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 44 54 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 43 52 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 42 50 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Rose
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions across Marshall County from February 2025 improved to moderate drought conditions by mid-March.
Severe drought conditions across Bedford County from February 2025 improved to moderate drought conditions by mid-March.
Severe drought conditions across western Coffee County from February 2025 improved to moderate drought conditions by mid-March.
Severe drought conditions across Cumberland County from February 2025 improved to moderate drought conditions by mid-March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1233769, 1233770, 1233771, 1233772.