Drought in Arizona, March 1 to 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
317 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS... A series of weather systems will move across the
region, with one on Saturday and another on Monday. These systems
will bring breezy to windy southwest winds, elevated fire weather
conditions, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving into
northwestern New Mexico and a closed low just off the southern
coast of California. High clouds are streaming in ahead of the low
which will move through tomorrow. It's trajectory will take it
through south-central Arizona then into New Mexico early Sunday
morning. This will lead to strong southwest winds across most of
southeast Arizona with speeds 25-30 mph and gusts to 45 mph. There
will also be a slight chance for precip in the White Mountains but
the main impact/hazard will be the strong winds. Relative
humidity will be low and because of this and the strong winds the
Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
Saturday. The area has been expanded to include fire weather zone
150. Blowing dust will be another hazard especially near the
Wilcox Playa and the Picacho Peak area. A Blowing Dust Advisory
has been issued for Saturday afternoon for most valley locations
in southeast Arizona. The amount of dust will likely be less than
Thursday but reduced visibilities down to a half mile to three
miles will be possible. Temperatures Saturday will be a few
degrees warmer than today especially in the Tucson metro and Gila
River Valley.

Sunday Arizona will be in between systems as another fairly strong
low moves down the West Coast. Temperatures cool a few degrees
Sunday and cool even further Monday and Tuesday to a few degrees
below normal. The low moves through Monday and will bring another
round of strong gusty southwest winds from Tucson eastward. The
strongest winds will be in Cochise and Graham/Greenlee Counties.
Areas of critical fire weather conditions will be possible in
Cochise County and southern Graham/Greenlee Counties. Elsewhere
moisture increases enough that RH values will likely be above 15
percent. Light precip will be possible north/northeast of Tucson
with the best chances in the White Mountains. Tuesday in the wake
of the trough winds stay elevated east of Tucson with a slight
chance for precip in the White Mountains.

Ensembles keep the upper air pattern progressive with another
trough impacting the region late next week after brief ridging on
Wednesday. Most members show a trough late next week but differ
greatly on its timing. For now the forecast calls for near normal
temperatures and breezy winds next week Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 02/00Z.
SCT areas of cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL moving across the area
thru the end of valid pd. SFC winds WLY 5-12 kts with ocnl gusts
to 20 kts thru 01/03z then bcmg terrain driven less than 10 kts
thru Saturday morning. After 01/16Z winds increase out of the
southwest 20-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated with TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Lighter winds today before another round of gusty
winds impact the area on Saturday. Sustained 20 ft winds from the
south-southwest at 25 to 30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH and minimum
RH around 8 to 13 percent in the afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is
in effect Saturday form 11 am to 6 pm MST for Fire Weather Zones
150-152 and 154, only excluding the White Mountains. Less wind
Sunday before gusty winds return to the area on Monday with
potential for near critical fire weather conditions across eastern
parts of Cochise county and southern Graham/Greenlee Counties.
Roller coaster ride in temperatures as these weather systems move
across the area.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for
AZZ502>509.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for AZZ150>152-
154.

&&

Hardin

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