The drought increased in intensity across west central Texas during the month of March. The worse conditions which included severe/extreme conditions were located south of an Ozona to Eldorado to Brownwood line.
Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The drought increased in intensity across west central Texas during the month of March. The worse conditions which included severe/extreme conditions were located south of an Ozona to Eldorado to Brownwood line.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:13 PM CST, 47 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1113 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures today into early next week. - Low chance for showers across the Big Country on Sunday and a Low to Medium chance of showers across West Central Texas Monday night through early Tuesday. - High chance of critical fire weather conditions and very strong winds on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 116 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Lots of sun with temperatures up in the 70s this afternoon as light south and southwest winds prevail. Low level moisture has been slow to climb, and with this in mind, have gone on the cool side of guidance for tonight. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a little better radiational cooling setup, although temperatures not expected to be as cool as they were this morning. Warmer again on Saturday as temperatures climb towards the 80 degree mark for the first day of March. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 An upper level low will move across New Mexico, the TX Panhandle, and into Oklahoma/Kansas Saturday night through Sunday. As a result, a strong surface low will develop in extreme NE New Mexico during the day Sunday, strengthening the surface pressure gradient and causing gusty south winds (around 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph) south of a dry-line and west-southwest winds west and north of the dry-line. Expect another warm day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. There is also a low chance (20-30%) of showers in the Big Country Sunday afternoon where there is a bit more lift and moisture available as the trough axis moves through the TX Panhandle. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen further on Monday, bringing further warming, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Monday evening through early Tuesday morning, there will be low to medium (20-50%) chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as strong lift from the upper level trough and Pacific front/dry-line combines with low- level moisture. A stronger upper low will push from the Four Corners region east through the Central Plains Monday night through Tuesday, with an associated upper level jet streak moving into West Central Texas. This is a favorable pattern for high winds (as well as a significant fire weather threat which is discussed in the Fire Weather section below). 50 kt winds at 850mb and 100-110 kt winds at 500mb will translate to very strong winds at the surface. Model guidance indicates a low-to-medium (20-60%) chance of westerly wind gusts exceeding 50 mph Tuesday afternoon, with a high (70-90%) chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph. Ensemble means indicate the most likely wind gusts will be in the 45-50 mph range, with the reasonable highest scenario showing wind gusts of 60+ mph. There is an increased risk of blowing dust with these strong winds as well. Meanwhile, cooler/dry air from the west will result in cooler highs Tuesday in the low to mid 70s. A cold front will then push down from the north Tuesday night, with lows down into the low to mid 40s. Fair weather expected for Wednesday through Thursday with mainly zonal flow aloft. Cool air mass behind the cold front will result in cooler highs in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday, and lows Wednesday night in the low to mid 40s. Slightly warmer Thursday with highs in the low 70s. Another period of gusty and dry west winds is shown by most model guidance on Friday as another upper level trough pushes through the Central Plains. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 856 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 VFR conditions along with light and variable winds are expected across all West Central Texas terminals through much of the TAF period. South to southeasterly winds are expected to become breezy late tomorrow afternoon through the overnight period, and into Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, there is potential for 15 to 25 knot southerly winds accompanied by higher gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 116 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Fire weather conditions on Tuesday (and to little lesser extent on Sunday) continue to be the biggest threat in the forecast over the next week. Models continue to have their differences in the placement and speed of the upper level trough for late Monday night into Tuesday, and exactly where the associated strongest wind fields will line up. Still, becoming increasingly concerned about the potential fire weather threat for West Central Texas. Taking a peak at some of the probabilistic data shows a high chance (70%+) of at least 25 mph and humidity values below 20% across much of the western half of the area by noon Tuesday afternoon, and this is before the lowest humidity values and strongest winds may occur mid to late afternoon. With information from the Texas Forest Service showing ERC values above seasonal normals, should winds and humidity come together, potential for significant wildfires appear possible. Now, there are still a few things we are watching. As noted already, models are still shifting around some and there will continue to be additional shifts on where the strongest winds come together. There is also a chance for showers on both Sunday and again Monday night into Tuesday morning, although rainfall totals looks light. If rain totals are light, any moisture will rapidly evaporate and have little affect on afternoon humidity values. If rain is heavier, than it may effect humidity values more. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 45 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 20 San Angelo 43 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 45 81 51 79 / 0 0 0 10 Brownwood 41 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 47 77 53 81 / 0 0 0 20 Ozona 44 79 55 77 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 45 78 52 78 / 0 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....SJH AVIATION...TP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
12 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Fisher County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Sterling County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Brown County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Concho County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe/extreme drought conditions across McCulloch County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated severe/extreme drought conditions across San Saba County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe/extreme drought conditions across Crockett County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Schleicher County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Sutton County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated moderate/severe drought conditions across Menard County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated severe/extreme drought conditions across Mason County during the month of March.
The US Drought Monitor indicated severe/extreme/exceptional drought conditions across Kimble County during the month of March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1246114, 1246115, 1246116, 1246117, 1246118, 1246119, 1246121, 1246122, 1246123, 1246124, 1246125, 1246126.