Dry conditions allowed for severe (D2) drought conditions to continue across southeastern Pennsylvania through March 2025. A prolonged spell of dry conditions across south-central Pennsylvania did allow for severe drought to begin expanding along the Mason-Dixon line towards the end of the month with the most significant precipitation limited to the western half of Pennsylvania during the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Dry conditions allowed for severe (D2) drought conditions to continue across southeastern Pennsylvania through March 2025. A prolonged spell of dry conditions across south-central Pennsylvania did allow for severe drought to begin expanding along the Mason-Dixon line towards the end of the month with the most significant precipitation limited to the western half of Pennsylvania during the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:31 PM EST, 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1131 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... *Strong low pressure passing well north of the region will keep temps well above normal overnight thanks to widespread clouds and a moderately gusty south to southwest breeze *Windy and cold start to March with snow showers Saturday across the Northern and Western Mountains *Spring-like warming trend precedes rain into next Wednesday followed by another cool down for late week && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Strong/deep clipper sfc low tracks from the northern MI/Lake Huron up the Saint Lawrence River Valley tonight through Saturday morning. Surface warm front developing/lifting across Northern PA and Southern New York will lead to a relatively mild night for the forecast area thanks in part to abundant cloud cover and a moderately gusty southwest to southerly breeze - in the teens to low 20s (KTS). A rather meager axis of relatively higher PWAT air, a tad over 0.50 inch, extended across our NW Mtn zones and was approaching the Laurel Highlands at 03Z. Most places across the NW half of our CWA will see a few showers, but as noted in the earlier discussion - very light rainfall amounts. Only areas near the Mason dixon line and southeast of I-81 remain clear to partly cloudy this evening, while layered, mainly high based stratocu and altocu blanketed the Central and Northern zones where the best WAA was focused. Min temps in the 30s to low 40s (outside of the far NW that will see the cold front push through by 09Z Sat). These mins will average 10 to 15 deg F above normal for 3/1. Again, precip-wise, this is a classic case of high POP/low QPF with most places seeing less than 0.05 of an inch of LEQ and areas near and to the SE of I-81 likely receiving nothing more than some late night sprinkles. Rain to snow showers will occur over the NW Alleghenies for the second half of the overnight hours and there could be a coating of snow across the NW Mtns by sunrise Sat. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cold/arctic front sweeps across CPA Saturday morning and can't rule out a couple of heavier snow showers or bands with the frontal passage across the Central and Western Mtns. The rest of the first day of March will be windy and cold with falling temps and frequent wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range. Wind chills are fcst in the single digits and teens over the northwest 1/2 of the CWA by the late afternoon. Will maintain POPS way above baseline NBM/HREF and in-line with some of the wetter high res members, which indicate a strong signal for multi band lake effect/upslope snow showers extending well inland to the southeast of Lake Erie along with a possible Huron connection. The perennial snowbelts in the NW mtns and favored summits and ski resorts in the Laurels should pick up an inch or two of fluffy snow by Sunday morning with low temps 10-20F and min wind chills mainly in the -5F to +10F range (a few spots in the western and northern mtns could see WCs as low as 10 below zero). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Snow showers and flurries likely linger into Sunday morning especially over the northern tier. Low clouds are also likely to persist in the NW Alleghenies under the subsidence inversion. Max temps in the 20-35F range will be 10 to 20 degrees below the historical average for the start of March. Diminishing wind and clearing underneath the sfc high will make for a seasonably cold Sunday night/early Monday morning. We maintained lower min temps across the far north to account for efficient radiational cooling. Fcst lows in the single digits to mid teens are about 10 degrees below climo. Dry wx to start next week as high pressure slowing drifts to the east. Expect Monday and most of Tuesday to remain dry. Warmer weather for Tuesday, as the surface high moves off of the Mid Atlantic Coast and a southerly flow ensues. The next mild day looks to be Wednesday, as low pressure tracks west of the area. This will push temperatures well above normal. Widespread showers expected as well, thus high POPS. Gusty northwest winds are expected late Wednesday/Wed night into Thursday. The synoptic set up of an intensifying low tracking north of PA would support wind gusts >40ts on Thursday. Deep moisture within the deformation zone of the exiting low will likely bring lingering light rain to mainly the Allegheny Plateau Wed night, with change to snow showers Thursday as colder air arrives. After the departure of this quasi full-latitude trough over the N. Atlantic and Canadian Maritimes on Friday, a developing split flow will support the chance for a light wintry mix headed into next weekend. As expected at this time range, the amount of phasing between waves in both branches of the jet stream will dictate the precip potential and type. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Clouds have not thickened/lowered over the state too much in the past 6 hrs, but sat shows a gradual push southward with the cloud shield. Radar already shows some returns across the N, but all aloft thus far. There is a convective look to the returns over LE and now moving thru wrn NY and far NWrn PA where llvl convergence is maximized. Expect light precip in BFD shortly. Most of the Central Ridge and Valley airfields will see cloud bases at FL030 to FL040 by Sat morning as a sharp cold front pushes through. The rain showers may dip someone to 2SM, but only a 30pct chc of that and only for a very brief time. Clouds should also not dip to IFC even at BFD where the most rain/showers until... Temp profiles do get cold enough by sunrise at BFD to turn SHRA to SHSN. Then, there will be a much higher chc for a reduction to IFC with a 70-80pct chc at BFD. Just a 30 pct chc then at JST before 18Z before the SHSN dissipate. LLWS will also be an increasing concern under the influence of an enhanced (~50-60kt) 850mb SSW jet. Highest concern is across the western airfields; however, chances look favorable for all of central Pennsylvania beginning this evening and last til around daybreak across the Central Mtns and perhaps until 13Z over the Lower Susq Valley prior to the cfropa. Inversion should lower enough by 00Z that the chc of reductions to IFC will be gone. Clearing over the west starts Sat night except perhaps at BFD where lower clouds will linger all night. Sunday and Monday look fair/VFR under high pressure. Outlook... Mon...Mainly VFR. Tue...PM SHRA and restrictions poss. Wed...Widespread Rain and sub VFR conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... The passage of a strong cold front early Saturday will be followed by gusty west to northwest winds (30-35 mph) and an elevated risk of fire spread over several counties in South Central PA, where conditions have been notably drier (at or below 40 percent of normal precip) over the past 2 months after a near to slightly above normal Dec 2024. Sfc dewpoints will fall off markedly in the afternoon Saturday and combine with the gusty winds to help dry our 10 hour fuels into the teens (which is still several percent or more above the 10 percent Fuel Moisture threshold for a Red Flag Warning). Minimum relative humidity values across the bulk of the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state will be between 25 and 35 percent Saturday afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...Lambert/Dangelo FIRE WEATHER...Lambert
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 854 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063-020200- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- 854 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ064>066-020200- Adams-York-Lancaster- 854 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Gusty west winds of 30 to 40 mph late Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon will combine with low relative humidity and drying fine fuels to produce an elevated potential for wildfire spread, especially on west-facing slopes of the ridges. Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across Lancaster County throughout all of March 2025. A Drought Watch remained across portions of Lancaster County with public water suppliers enacting mandatory water conservation measures across the county.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across Lebanon County throughout all of March 2025.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across Schuylkill County throughout all of March 2025. Mandatory water conservation measures were continued for communities served by the Roaring Creek Water plant throughout all of March 2025.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across southern Columbia County throughout all of March 2025. Mandatory water conservation measures were continued for communities served by the Roaring Creek Water plant throughout all of March 2025.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across southeastern Northumberland County throughout all of March 2025. Mandatory water conservation measures were continued for communities served by the Roaring Creek Water plant throughout all of March 2025.
Continued dry conditions allowed for D2 (severe) drought conditions to continue across eastern York County throughout all of March 2025.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1238435, 1238436, 1238437, 1238438, 1238439, 1238440.