NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 1:59 PM PST, 8 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 2, 1:59 PM PST, 8 hours 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
159 PM PST Sun Mar 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* A fast-moving storm moving across the region will continue to
bring gusty winds, Sierra snowfall, and rain/snow showers through
Monday morning, with travel impacts over Sierra passes and higher
terrain east of US-95.
* A midweek system may bring additional snowfall and reinforcing
cold, with the potential development of a Tonopah Low, which could
increase snow impacts for western Nevada.
* Active weather may persist into mid-March, but storm details
remain uncertain beyond Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday Afternoon – Monday Morning: Quick-Hitting Winter Storm
* A low-pressure system continues tracking through the Sierra and
western Nevada, bringing colder temperatures, gusty winds, and
snowfall down to 4000-5000 feet. Snowfall potential has increased
significantly for portions of Pershing and Churchill counties,
prompting a Winter Storm Warning for elevations above 5000 feet,
while areas below 5000 feet remain under a Winter Weather Advisory.
* Snow Accumulations: Sierra: Trace-1 inch in Tahoe Basin, 1-4
inches on passes (Donner, Echo, Carson). Western NV: Light
rain/snow mix, with up to 1 inch in foothills south of US-50.
Basin and Range: 0-3 inches in valleys, 6-10 inches in higher
terrain, locally up to a foot in the Clan Alpine, Desatoya, and
New Pass ranges.
* Winds: Sierra Ridges: 40-60 mph gusts. Western NV Valleys: 25-35
mph gusts. US-395 (Mono/Douglas) & US-95 (Mineral): 30-50%
chance of gusts 40-45 mph. Post-frontal NW winds Monday: 30-40
mph gusts in the Basin and Range, choppy lake conditions on
Pyramid Lake (Lake Wind Advisory).
Midweek System (Wednesday-Thursday)
* A developing midweek storm system will bring additional snowfall
and reinforce colder air across the region. Some models hint at
the formation of a Tonopah Low over central Nevada that can
enhance frontogenetic banding and synoptic lift, leading to
locally higher snowfall amounts in western Nevada. The storm’s
impacts will depend on key factors, including: Preexisting cold
air mass, positioning of the upper-level jet and vorticity
advection maxima, and mid-level deformation and frontogenesis.
These elements could enhance snowfall well into western Nevada,
bringing higher-than-expected snowfall totals if the low organizes
favorably. While nothing is certain yet, this system is worth
monitoring closely.
* Snow Accumulation Potential: Sierra: 45-60% chance of 6+ inches at
pass level, 5-15% chance of a foot or more. Western NV Valleys: Up
to 20% chance of a dusting in lower valleys, 25-50% chance of 1+
inch above 5000 feet. Basin and Range: 5-10% chance of 1+ inch
along I-80 to Winnemucca, 40-60% chance of 3+ inches for higher
elevations along US-50.
* Winds: 30-50% chance of gusts 40+ mph across western Nevada and
the eastern Sierra.
Extended Outlook: Active Pattern Continues?
* Long-range models suggest continued storm activity into mid-March,
but storm intensity and track remain uncertain.
-Johnston
&&
.AVIATION...
Rest of Today – Monday Morning
* Turbulence & LLWS: FL100 winds 30-40 kts, strongest east of the
Sierra crest. Multiple G-AIRMETs are active for turbulence through
tonight.
* Surface Winds: Gusts 25-35 kts, strongest along I-80.
* Terminal Impacts: Sierra Terminals (KTRK/KTVL): IFR/MVFR with
trace-2 inches of snow by 18Z Monday. Western NV Terminals
(KRNO/KCXP/KMEV): Brief MVFR in snow showers, 20-40% chance of
rain/snow mix at KMEV/KCXP Sunday night as snow levels drop to
4000-5000 feet.
Midweek System (Wednesday-Thursday)
* Mountain obscurations, IFR/MVFR conditions, and turbulence
concerns expected. Accumulating snowfall likely for Sierra
terminals, with rain/snow mix in western Nevada. Potential for
heavier snowfall in west- central Nevada and along the Sierra
Front.
- Johnston
&&
.AVALANCHE...
A fast-moving winter storm will bring colder temperatures, gusty
winds, and snowfall through Monday. A second system midweek will
bring additional snowfall, heaviest south of Highway 50.
* SWE & SLR: 0.20-0.30 inches SWE expected in the Tahoe Basin and
Eastern Sierra through Monday morning.
* SLRs 12-15:1, favoring drier, lighter snow.
* Snowfall Totals: Tonight: 1-4 inches at 7000-8000 ft, 4-6 inches
above 8000 ft. Monday: Light snow showers tapering off, with 0-1
inch additional accumulation above 8000 ft.
* Ridgetop Winds: Tonight: West 15-30 mph, gusting 45 mph. Monday:
W/NW 15-30 mph, gusting 40-45 mph, gradually weakening. Bridgeport
& Eastern Sierra: NW 30-45 mph, gusts up to 60 mph Monday.
Midweek System (Wednesday-Thursday)
* Another round of Sierra snowfall, heaviest south of Highway 50.
Snow levels 4500-5000 ft, lowering into Thursday. Breezy
conditions persist, with additional mountain snowfall expected.
- Johnston
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday NVZ002.
Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday NVZ004.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ004.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&