Wildfire in Texas, March 2 to 3, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1215 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated sub-severe storms are expected across the
  region this afternoon through this evening. Small hail and gusty
  winds are possible with any stronger storms.

- More widespread showers and storms are expected Monday night
  through Tuesday. A few severe storms capable of producing
  damaging winds, hail, and even a couple spin-up tornadoes will
  be possible.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible west
  of I-35 Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This afternoon through Monday/

A potent upper level low is currently moving into the Texas
Panhandle, and will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the region later this afternoon and evening. In addition, some
elevated fire weather conditions will exist this afternoon west of
I-35.

For the remainder of the afternoon, expect breezy conditions with
winds of 15-20+ mph and gusts up to 35 mph. The highest wind
gusts will be west of I-35 where elevated fire weather conditions
are likely to occur in some areas due to humidity values falling
near 30 percent and above normal temperatures reaching the upper
70s. Elsewhere, humidity values will be slightly higher, but
winds will be similar.

To our west, a band of showers and storms already extends towards
Abilene from a compact upper level low that is close to moving
out of New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle. This band, or
line, of showers and storms is aligned along a wind shift that is
ahead of a Pacific front. Over the next few hours, we will see
this band of showers and storms continue to expand south and move
into our western and northwestern counties.

The line of showers and storms will continue moving east across
North and Central Texas through the evening hours. Rain chances
are highest across North Texas where there's an 80-90 percent
chance for rain later this afternoon and evening. Instability and
lapse rates are meager, but the compact low will spread decent
lift across the northern half of the region as it tracks across
southern Oklahoma. The threat for severe storms is very low, but a
stronger storm may produce gusty winds and/or small hail. Due to
the meager lapse rates, thunderstorm and lightning activity may be
isolated in coverage and mostly confined to the North Texas
region with Central Texas experiencing showers. The overall rain
activity will wane late this evening as the line moves east of
I-35 and the upper level support also moves east. There is a
20-30% chance for lingering showers in our eastern counties
overnight, but all rain activity should move out or dissipate
before daybreak Monday.

Low clouds will overspread the region tonight and hang on for most
of the day on Monday. Monday will be noticeably more humid than
today, and it will again be breezy with south winds 10 to 20 mph
and gusts around 30 mph. The dryline will remain to our west on
Monday, setting the stage for our next storm threat starting
Monday night.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 302 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/
/Monday Night and Beyond/

An impressive upper trough will shift over the Southern Plains
inducing strong lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies by Monday
evening. An intense upper-level jet streak (including 500mb winds
greater than 95-100 kts) will round the base of the trough near
the Trans-Pecos region nosing into North and Central Texas by 06Z
Tuesday. An influx of low 60s dewpoints will surge north toward
the Red River by late Monday evening with a narrow corridor of
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE pooling just ahead of this system's Pacific
front/dryline. A strongly-forced line of thunderstorms will
rapidly develop along this boundary in Northwest Texas generally
from Vernon-Haskell-Sweetwater near midnight Monday night. This
system's forward speed is going to be quite fast, so expect this
line or broken line of thunderstorms to rapidly progress eastward
through the night into Tuesday morning reaching our westernmost,
Big Country counties around ~3-4AM, the I-35 corridor (including
the Metroplex) around ~6-7AM, and eventually exiting into our East
Texas counties near ~10AM-11AM Tuesday. Timing adjustments may be
needed as we enter the range of more high-resolution CAMs in the
next 12-24 hours.

Sufficient instability and very impressive deep-layer shear will
promote at least a low-end severe weather threat across most of
our area during this time frame. We want to really stress the
damaging wind threat, especially as storms approach the I-35
corridor around the Tuesday morning commute and tap into some
surface-based instability. A wide swath of 50-60 kt winds will be
present across North and Central Texas just a few thousand feet
above the surface, and it will not take much downward momentum to
get these severe magnitude winds down to the ground. With such
strong deep-layer shear, we will need to monitor for broken line
segments or embedded supercells within the line that could pose a
risk for large hail. The position of the low-level jet and more
favorable, long, curved hodographs look to just outrun the narrow axis
of instability over our forecast area. Therefore, the threat for
any discrete convection ahead of the line of storms with an
enhanced tornado threat seems quite low. However, we will have to
monitor any northwest-southeast oriented segments of the line more
orthogonal to the mean flow for a QLCS, quick spin-up tornado
threat or enhanced wind threat. A couple failure modes: 1. There
is some modest capping along/west of I-35 that could prevent
widespread convection from developing until later in the morning.
2. The time of day storms are moving over our area may limit the
degree of destabilization, and the severe threat may not ramp up
until the line reaches our easternmost counties midday Tuesday.

Nonetheless, all precipitation should exit to our east by 12PM
Tuesday as this severe weather event really ramps up over the
Lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday afternoon/evening. The
rapid nature of this system will keep rainfall totals and the
flooding threat on the lower end with most locations picking up
less than 0.75" of rain through midday Tuesday with a 20-30%
chance that totals exceed 1.5 inches across Northeast Texas. It is
likely that many locations across western Central Texas pick up
less than a tenth of an inch of rain.

Another item to note with this dynamic system on Tuesday: it will
be very windy all day. Expect south winds shifting out of the west
behind the Pacific front gusting to 40 mph at times. A very dry
air mass will usher in behind this system with afternoon RH
plummeting below 20% Tuesday afternoon west of I-35. Any locations
that do not pick up sufficient wetting rainfall could see an
elevated fire weather threat materialize Tuesday afternoon.
Slightly cooler temperatures will move in as well with afternoon
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s expected Wednesday and Thursday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Breezy VFR conditions will persist for the next few hours, but
then a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across
the terminals, followed by MVFR ceilings tonight into Monday.

South winds gusting up to 30 kts will prevail for the remainder of
the afternoon hours. A line of showers and storms is extending
towards the Abilene area at this time. This line will continue
expanding south and move east in the next few hours. Showers and
isolated storms are possible at the North Texas TAF airports
between 00-04Z. Severe storms are not expected due to weak
instability and lapse rates, but a stronger storm could produce
small hail and/or gusty winds. For Central Texas/KACT, the thunder
threat looks even more minimal, so VCSH is included in the TAF
from 02-06Z.

MVFR stratus will develop across the region tonight as strong low
level winds continue to transport increasing moisture north
across the region. Cigs will lower to between 1-2 kft around
05-06Z and remain there through Monday morning. Ceilings are
anticipated to lift slightly above 4 kft Monday afternoon.

JLDunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  58  77  61  73 /  10  40  10  70  50
Waco                77  63  77  62  74 /   5  10   5  40  50
Paris               68  49  67  59  69 /   0  60  20  60  90
Denton              73  55  77  57  70 /  20  60   5  80  50
McKinney            72  54  74  59  72 /  10  50  10  70  70
Dallas              76  58  76  62  73 /  10  40  10  70  60
Terrell             72  55  74  61  72 /   5  40  10  60  80
Corsicana           76  60  77  64  74 /   5  20   5  40  80
Temple              78  62  78  62  76 /   5  10   5  30  40
Mineral Wells       77  57  84  56  72 /  30  30   5  80  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&