High Wind in Nevada, March 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
356 AM PST Sun Mar 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cloud cover will decrease tonight as a weather system
moves away to our southeast. Sunday into Monday, a stronger system
will bring chances for light rain and mountain snow to the region
along with gusty southwest winds on Sunday and gusty northwest winds
on Monday along with cooler temperatures. Temperatures recover
midweek before an additional system returns precipitation chances
and breezy conditions mid-to-late week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.

A trough digging along the California coast today will bring some
notable changes to our weather today and Monday. The most impactful
aspect of this system will be the winds which will begin to increase
this morning across San Bernardino southern and southern Inyo
counties. Winds will then increase and spread across east across the
forecast area through the remainder of the morning and the
afternoon. Southwest to west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph
will be fairly common across the area with locally higher gusts
especially in the lee of the Spring Mountains and Sierra where
localized downslope winds will develop. Went ahead and expanded the
wind advisory to include the remainder of the southern half of the
forecast area, including Mohave, southern Clark and eastern San
Bernardino counties. This also includes the area lakes where wave
models are indicating waves of 1-3 feet, and closer to 2-4 feet on
Lake Mead this afternoon. Areas of blowing dust will also be a
concern this afternoon with some areas close to dry lake beds seeing
visibilities drop to less than 3 miles at times.

The other aspect of this system will be the rain/snow potential
across the area. With the center of the low tracking through central
Nevada, we will not see the most favorable trajectory for moisture
and most of the precipitation will be intercepted by the Sierra.
Areas above 8000 feet could see between 2-5 inches of snow by this
evening, but overall snow amounts won't be too significant. A cold
front will push through central Nevada this afternoon and we could
see some precipitation along and behind the front, especially across
Esmeralda and central Nye counties where some brief bursts of
moderate rain/snow will be possible with snow levels between 4000-
4500 feet. Overall, precipitation amounts will be light and any snow
accumulations in those area are expected to remain light and rain
amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch. By the time the
front makes it to southern Nevada, most of the precipitation will be
over, but some light snow showers will be possible in the Spring
Mountains this evening.

As the low begins to push east Monday, there will still be enough
dynamics from the low for some isolated rain/snow showers over
mainly the higher terrain. As mentioned before, there isn't much
moisture to work with, so any precipitation amounts will remain
light. We will still see some gust northwest winds, but overall wind
speeds will be much lighter than Sunday. Mild temperatures today
with highs dropping about 4-7 degrees on Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Shortwave ridging will build in on Tuesday with fair weather and
temperatures returning to near normal levels for early March. The
break will be short-lived however as the wave train of Pacific
troughs continues.  This midweek weather system will be deeper than
the one that preceded it, and will also have an improved moisture
tap, with precipitable water value anomalies of 150-200% spreading
into the region Wednesday and Thursday. This will encourage
widespread shower activity across the forecast area, especially
north of I-40. In addition, snow levels will hover in the 6000-6500
foot range on Wednesday before falling to 4000-5000 feet on Thursday
as the colder air aloft moves in.  NBM probabilities of 6 inches or
more of snow in Lee and Kyle Canyons remain high, roughly about 80
percent, with similar probabilities in the Sierra.  Enough snow to
impact travel on Highway 93 and 95 heading into the Great Basin will
also be a possibility to monitor as the event draws closer.  Outside
of the higher terrain, fairly progressive nature of the storm
system, along with pockets of enhanced rain-shadowing, will keep
precipitation amounts fairly light, with most likely precipitation
totals across the deserts of a tenth or an inch or less.  Showers
may linger across our eastern zones Friday as the low departs, with
ridging building back in for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast
Package...Southwesterly winds under 10 knots will continue until
sunrise before increasing and becoming gusty.  Gusts in the 30 to 40
knot range are expected through the afternoon, with the best
potential (30%) for gusts to 40 knots between 20Z and 01Z.  Some
improvement in winds is expected after sunset, but winds gusting to
20 knots will likely continue into Monday morning.  Light
precipitation is possible after 00Z over the higher terrain north
and west of the field, but no precipitation is forecast at the
field.  FEW to SCT clouds with bases AOA 12kft AGL can be expected
through the TAF period.  Lower bases to around 6kft to 8kft AGL are
possible after 00Z but will be associated with any of the
precipitation that develops near the higher terrain.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to what is described above for
Harry Reid.  Elsewhere, west-to-southwest winds will develop and
increase across all areas today.  The highest winds are expected
across the western Mojave Desert with gusts of 45kts possible (25%
chance) after 01Z.  Gusts to 30 knots are also expected near KBIH
through the afternoon before turning more northerly and decreasing
after sunset.  In the lower Colorado River Valley, south-to-
southwest winds to around 30 knots can be expected during the
afternoon before decreasing.  A few showers in the vicinity of KBIH
(mainly west of the field) are possible through the afternoon. There
is a slightly better chance that a shower or two could make it to
the field after 22Z as the front approaches and a PROB30 group has
been included for that.  A few showers are also possible near KDAG
after 00Z, but the current thinking is that activity will stay to
the south over the higher terrain.  Away from any precipitation, FEW
to SCT clouds with bases AOA 10kft AGL can be expected.  Near
precipitation areas, bases of 6kft to 8kft AGL will be possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

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