A compact shortwave trough entering the southern Great Plains resulted in westerly high winds across portions of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico's higher elevations and adjacent plains.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A compact shortwave trough entering the southern Great Plains resulted in westerly high winds across portions of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico's higher elevations and adjacent plains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 5:06 AM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 503 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
- Warm and very dry weather with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above normal are expected this afternoon and Monday.
- A strong weather system moves over the region this afternoon
resulting in very windy conditions across the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains, Upper Trans Pecos, and portions of the Permian
Basin with breezy conditions elsewhere. Dangerous fire weather
is expected for much of West Texas and the Southeast New Mexico
Plains.
- An intense weather system moves across the area late Monday
through Tuesday. Very windy conditions are expected for a large
portion of the area with patchy areas of blowing dust.
Widespread dangerous fire weather is expected for much of the
Southern Great Plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 324 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
Warm, dry, and windy: that will be the story for the rest of this
weekend into early next week. A shorter lull between storm
systems Sunday and Monday-Tuesday than in previous runs continues
to be indicated in deterministic and ensemble models, meaning a
shorter break in between strong winds. High clouds streaming from
west to east are present on IR and Nighttime Fog satellite imagery
early this morning, in association with increased lift and mid to
upper level moisture with a short wave trough approaching from
the Desert SW. However, the greatest lift and moisture will bypass
the area to the northeast, so the main impact for our area from
this feature and another short wave to follow is expected to be
hazardous winds.
Highs today in the NBM rise at least 5 to 7 degrees above average
for early March as a result of southwesterly shifting to westerly
downsloping winds. There is not much consistency regarding high
and low temperatures in coarse and high-res deterministic models
for the short term, but generally the high-res models are showing
lows cooler by 5F-10F than coarse res models tonight, and highs
warmer by 5F-10F today and tomorrow. Ensembles are more consistent
in showing highs and lows closer to the NBM and high-res models
as well. 15% to 20% PoPs are again present over Western Low
Rolling Plains Sunday afternoon on southern end of greater lift
and moisture to the north, so rain showers are possible over that
region today. However, dry air near the surface and greater
forcing to the northeast will result in negligible rainfall for
today even in those regions.
Forecast soundings continue to show dry adiabatic lapse rates in
the lower troposphere and elongated straight hodographs,
indicative of efficient boundary layer mixing and winds veering
and increasing with height, respectively. 700 mb geopotential
height and vorticity in models depict a mountain wave signature
both today and tomorrow as well. All of these factors add
confidence to an expected hazardous wind event for this morning
through this evening, and again tomorrow afternoon through
evening, continuing into the extended. NBM tends to under perform
for wind speeds and gusts in these conditions, so again blended in
higher speeds and gusts. Sustained winds 25 to 30 mph and gusts
30 to 35 mph, with sustained winds 30 to 40 mph and gusts 50 to 60
mph in western higher terrain and adjoining foothills are
forecast today. Ensembles depict a 50%- 70% chance of wind gusts
above 55 mph in the Guadalupes. These high winds will lead to
areas of blowing dust over Guadalupe and Davis Mountains,
surrounding foothills, and SE NM plains, as we have not had
measurable rainfall for at least a few weeks and soils are dry. A
High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains into Davis Mountains, as well as the eastern Culberson
County and Eddy County plains this morning through this evening.
Wind advisories are also in effect for Davis Mountains Foothills,
Van Horn, and Highway 54 Corridor and have been expanded to cover
the Upper Trans Pecos and most of the Permian Basin where winds
above 30 mph are apparent for today and aligned with the axis of a
SW to NE oriented thermal ridge extending into TX Panhandle.
Tonight, gusty winds decrease rapidly in-between the lull in
storm systems, but winds remain out of the west. Scattered high
cloud cover limits radiational cooling despite lighter winds. This
keeps lows 8 to 12 degrees above average, translating to lower to
mid 40s, upper 30s in basins of Culberson County and western
Davis Mountain Foothills, and upper 40s to mid 50s Rio Grande
basins into Terrell County, eastern Stockton Plateau, and
southeast Permian Basin. The break in active weather only lasts
into Monday morning before winds again pick up. Winds Monday have
trended higher than previous runs. In addition, winds are expected
to be even stronger than today as a 50 to 70 kt jet streak rounds
the base of the next short wave and traverses the area. As a
result of these expected high winds, a High Wind Watch has been
issued for the western higher terrain W TX tomorrow afternoon into
the extended, as winds will not be decreasing significantly going
into Monday evening. However, once again there will be a sharp
gradient in high winds, this time for far eastern areas closer to
a pre-frontal trough/dryline and ahead of a NW to SE moving
Pacific cold front.
As a result of lift ahead of another short wave, increased high
cloud cover is anticipated for Monday. Despite this, stronger
westerly downsloping winds than Sunday as the jet streak at the
base of the next trough traverses the area. These stronger
westerly downsloping winds allow for warmer highs 10 to 15 degrees
above average on Monday, translating to lower to mid 80s, mid to
upper 70s Marfa Plateau into Culberson County, Eddy County, and
much of Lea County and northwest Permian Basin. Despite adiabatic
compressional warming from westerly downsloping winds, ensembles
are not indicating a run at record high temperatures in the Big
Bend, with a 0% chance of highs in the upper 90s unlike what the
NBM is currently showing. We will have to wait to see how
temperatures in southernmost Rio Grande basin pan out, so stuck
with NBM for highs on Monday for now. PoPs 15% to 20% are present
in far eastern Permian Basin for Monday afternoon and evening
ahead of the pre- frontal trough/dryline, and a few hundredths of
an inch of rain are indicated in the NBM. However, any rainfall
through the short term will not be substantial and we are
expecting most of the rain to be east of the CWA, as is usually
the case for this time of year. The warm, dry, and windy
conditions will also lead to a critical risk for fire weather over
most of the area. Like the strong winds, this is not expected to
let up as we go into next week, and will continue into the
extended. More on this in the fire weather and long term
discussions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
The long term forecast remains active through the remainder of
the weekend into next week. Tuesday can be expected to have the
most widespread hazardous winds and fire weather conditions. This
is supported by an intense mid-level jet streak of 50 to 70 kts
rounding the base of strengthening weather system centered over
the Great Plains. The windy conditions begin late in the day on
Monday and continue through the night into Tuesday. High winds may
be maintained through the night over the mountains with elevated
winds across the remaining area. The continued mixing through the
night keeps the start of Tuesday in the upper 30s and 40s. Wind
speeds quickly pick up through late morning and early afternoon as
diurnal mixing develops. Widespread hazardous winds are likely
with high (60- 80%) confidence in 45+ mph wind gusts for all but
our eastern most areas. Blowing dust is likely to cause at least
localized hazardous travel through the period. Extremely dry
conditions combine with these winds to maintain the fire weather
concerns as discussed in the Fire Weather Discussion below.
Temperatures remain slightly above normal even with the passing
weather system. Widespread afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s
and low 70s are to be expected. Wind speeds quickly diminish by
late afternoon and evening as the system departs to the east.
Wednesday should offer the best weather of the forecast period as
surface high pressure settles over the region. Light winds result
in a cooler morning, mainly in the 30s, across the region before
we warm up nicely by afternoon. Light winds and sunny skies offer
pleasant weather with temperatures in the mid 60s and low 70s.
Enjoy this weather while you can as change quickly follows. A weak
weather system lifts out of northern Mexico on Thursday. Breezy
southwesterly winds make their return as temperatures climb back
through the 70s. The next weather system is right on the heels of
the previous one as it digs into the Four Corners and moves into
the Great Plains Friday. Another day of widespread very windy west
winds and fire weather is to be expected once again. Temperatures
remain warm and above normal with the downsloping westerly winds.
While cooler temperatures arrive on Saturday, dropping the region
back to near normal, gusty winds linger. We are not expected to
see another lull in the winds until Sunday when high pressure
finally returns.
-Chehak
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
The long term forecast remains active through the remainder of
the weekend into next week. Tuesday can be expected to have the
most widespread hazardous winds and fire weather conditions. This
is supported by an intense mid-level jet streak of 50 to 70 kts
rounding the base of strengthening weather system centered over
the Great Plains. The windy conditions begin late in the day on
Monday and continue through the night into Tuesday. High winds may
be maintained through the night over the mountains with elevated
winds across the remaining area. The continued mixing through the
night keeps the start of Tuesday in the upper 30s and 40s. Wind
speeds quickly pick up through late morning and early afternoon as
diurnal mixing develops. Widespread hazardous winds are likely
with high (60- 80%) confidence in 45+ mph wind gusts for all but
our eastern most areas. Blowing dust is likely to cause at least
localized hazardous travel through the period. Extremely dry
conditions combine with these winds to maintain the fire weather
concerns as discussed in the Fire Weather Discussion below.
Temperatures remain slightly above normal even with the passing
weather system. Widespread afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s
and low 70s are to be expected. Wind speeds quickly diminish by
late afternoon and evening as the system departs to the east.
Wednesday should offer the best weather of the forecast period as
surface high pressure settles over the region. Light winds result
in a cooler morning, mainly in the 30s, across the region before
we warm up nicely by afternoon. Light winds and sunny skies offer
pleasant weather with temperatures in the mid 60s and low 70s.
Enjoy this weather while you can as change quickly follows. A weak
weather system lifts out of northern Mexico on Thursday. Breezy
southwesterly winds make their return as temperatures climb back
through the 70s. The next weather system is right on the heels of
the previous one as it digs into the Four Corners and moves into
the Great Plains Friday. Another day of widespread very windy west
winds and fire weather is to be expected once again. Temperatures
remain warm and above normal with the downsloping westerly winds.
While cooler temperatures arrive on Saturday, dropping the region
back to near normal, gusty winds linger. We are not expected to
see another lull in the winds until Sunday when high pressure
finally returns.
-Chehak
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
VFR CIGs expected throughout TAF period. Southerly/southeasterly
winds over Lea County into Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau
shift to southwesterly and then westerly 14Z-18Z today. Gusty
winds above 25 kts are expected to begin following this wind
shift. Currently, there is medium confidence in impacts from BLDU
at terminals, so left out mention of BLDU in TAFs for now. VIS
MVFR or lower expected where BLDU does occur. Winds shift back to
southwesterly at terminals while decreasing below 20 kts from
00Z-05Z Monday into end of period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
A multiple day stretch of critical to extreme fire weather begins
this afternoon. Fuels have dried to critical levels as ERCs have
climbed into the 75th percentile range across the bulk of the
region. A passing weather system this afternoon brings strong
southwest winds and low teens relative humidities for Southeast
New Mexico and much of West Texas. While the strongest winds are
most likely over the mountains, a low-level thermal ridge is
forecast to develop further to the east behind the dryline. This
corridor near the low-level thermal ridge from the Permian Basin
up into the Western Low Rolling Plains has the best juxtaposition
of critically dry fuels and red flag conditions this afternoon.
There will be a threat of significant wildfires within the
aforementioned corridor.
Fire weather returns again on Monday, but shifts westward with
the greatest threat. Our next weather system begins to nose into
the region by Monday afternoon. Strong southwest winds and
extremely dry weather with relative humidity well into the single
digits will be supportive of locally extreme fire weather. The
corridor of greatest threat is forecast to stretch from near the
Davis Mountains north into the eastern New Mexico Plains and
adjacent portions of West Texas. This corridor will have the best
overlap of fire weather conditions as winds weaken with eastern
extent.
Tuesday continues to indicate further fire weather concerns
across the entire region with very strong west winds and
critically dry weather. At this time, the window of greatest fire
weather concerns appears to be focused earlier in the day from
late morning to mid- afternoon. This is the result of the weather
system beginning to exit the area. Winds quickly decrease from
west to east across the region beginning in the mid-afternoon
through the remainder of the evening.
-Chehak
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 75 45 83 44 / 10 0 0 10
Carlsbad 72 46 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 85 51 86 49 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 77 51 86 45 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 63 45 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 71 43 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 70 41 77 36 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 73 46 83 43 / 0 0 0 10
Odessa 73 47 83 43 / 0 0 0 10
Wink 76 43 85 41 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
Davis Mountains-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Upton-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning to 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Chinati
Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Borden-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County Plains-
Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Eddy County
Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupe Mountains.
High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for Eddy Plains-Lea.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-
Northern Lea-Southern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...94The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The RAWS station GDBT2, The Bowl, in the Guadalupe Mountains recorded a maximum wind gust of 76 MPH.
A maximum wind gust of 59 MPH was recorded by the West Texas Mesonet Station Pine Springs GMNP near Guadalupe Pass.
A maximum wind gust of 60 MPH was recorded by the RAWS station WDPT2, Wolf Den Dmp.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1240608, 1240610, 1240606.