High Wind in California, March 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
952 AM PST Sun Mar 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Windy conditions today across the area as a storm
system moves through the desert southwest. There is not a lot of
moisture so only light rain and mountain snow is possible, mainly
late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures increase midweek before
another storm system brings precipitation and breezy conditions
mid to late week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Wind is the story of the day. Gusty southwest wind has developed
areawide with gusts mostly in the 40-45 mph range in the valleys
with pockets for gusts over 55 mph. These winds will persist
throughout the day, decreasing a bit tonight, but breezy
conditions will remain. Low visibility due to blowing dust is
possible in areas near good sources of dust. Wind advisories
remain in place across the area today.
-Berc

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...356 AM PST Sun Mar 2 2025...

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.

A trough digging along the California coast today will bring some
notable changes to our weather today and Monday. The most impactful
aspect of this system will be the winds which will begin to increase
this morning across San Bernardino southern and southern Inyo
counties. Winds will then increase and spread across east across the
forecast area through the remainder of the morning and the
afternoon. Southwest to west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph
will be fairly common across the area with locally higher gusts
especially in the lee of the Spring Mountains and Sierra where
localized downslope winds will develop. Went ahead and expanded the
wind advisory to include the remainder of the southern half of the
forecast area, including Mohave, southern Clark and eastern San
Bernardino counties. This also includes the area lakes where wave
models are indicating waves of 1-3 feet, and closer to 2-4 feet on
Lake Mead this afternoon. Areas of blowing dust will also be a
concern this afternoon with some areas close to dry lake beds seeing
visibilities drop to less than 3 miles at times.

The other aspect of this system will be the rain/snow potential
across the area. With the center of the low tracking through central
Nevada, we will not see the most favorable trajectory for moisture
and most of the precipitation will be intercepted by the Sierra.
Areas above 8000 feet could see between 2-5 inches of snow by this
evening, but overall snow amounts won't be too significant. A cold
front will push through central Nevada this afternoon and we could
see some precipitation along and behind the front, especially across
Esmeralda and central Nye counties where some brief bursts of
moderate rain/snow will be possible with snow levels between 4000-
4500 feet. Overall, precipitation amounts will be light and any snow
accumulations in those area are expected to remain light and rain
amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch. By the time the
front makes it to southern Nevada, most of the precipitation will be
over, but some light snow showers will be possible in the Spring
Mountains this evening.

As the low begins to push east Monday, there will still be enough
dynamics from the low for some isolated rain/snow showers over
mainly the higher terrain. As mentioned before, there isn't much
moisture to work with, so any precipitation amounts will remain
light. We will still see some gust northwest winds, but overall wind
speeds will be much lighter than Sunday. Mild temperatures today
with highs dropping about 4-7 degrees on Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Shortwave ridging will build in on Tuesday with fair weather and
temperatures returning to near normal levels for early March. The
break will be short-lived however as the wave train of Pacific
troughs continues.  This midweek weather system will be deeper than
the one that preceded it, and will also have an improved moisture
tap, with precipitable water value anomalies of 150-200% spreading
into the region Wednesday and Thursday. This will encourage
widespread shower activity across the forecast area, especially
north of I-40. In addition, snow levels will hover in the 6000-6500
foot range on Wednesday before falling to 4000-5000 feet on Thursday
as the colder air aloft moves in.  NBM probabilities of 6 inches or
more of snow in Lee and Kyle Canyons remain high, roughly about 80
percent, with similar probabilities in the Sierra.  Enough snow to
impact travel on Highway 93 and 95 heading into the Great Basin will
also be a possibility to monitor as the event draws closer.  Outside
of the higher terrain, fairly progressive nature of the storm
system, along with pockets of enhanced rain-shadowing, will keep
precipitation amounts fairly light, with most likely precipitation
totals across the deserts of a tenth or an inch or less.  Showers
may linger across our eastern zones Friday as the low departs, with
ridging building back in for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Shortwave ridging will build in on Tuesday with fair weather and
temperatures returning to near normal levels for early March. The
break will be short-lived however as the wave train of Pacific
troughs continues.  This midweek weather system will be deeper than
the one that preceded it, and will also have an improved moisture
tap, with precipitable water value anomalies of 150-200% spreading
into the region Wednesday and Thursday. This will encourage
widespread shower activity across the forecast area, especially
north of I-40. In addition, snow levels will hover in the 6000-6500
foot range on Wednesday before falling to 4000-5000 feet on Thursday
as the colder air aloft moves in.  NBM probabilities of 6 inches or
more of snow in Lee and Kyle Canyons remain high, roughly about 80
percent, with similar probabilities in the Sierra.  Enough snow to
impact travel on Highway 93 and 95 heading into the Great Basin will
also be a possibility to monitor as the event draws closer.  Outside
of the higher terrain, fairly progressive nature of the storm
system, along with pockets of enhanced rain-shadowing, will keep
precipitation amounts fairly light, with most likely precipitation
totals across the deserts of a tenth or an inch or less.  Showers
may linger across our eastern zones Friday as the low departs, with
ridging building back in for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Southwest winds gusting 30 to 40 knots will be the big
concern today. These winds could also raise dust and slightly reduce
visibility. Winds will subside this evening, but remain gusty
through Monday. VFR conditions are expected, with clouds around 10K
feet moving in this evening. Lower clouds and showers will be
possible over the Spring Mountains.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Southwest winds gusting
30 to 40 knots in the deserts and 40 to 60 knots over the mountains
will be widespread today, with at least moderate mechanical
turbulence. A cold front was entering the southern Great Basin late
this morning and will push south today before washing out as it
reaches the Mojave Desert. Behind this front, winds will shift to
northwesterly, and lower ceilings, terrain obscuration, and showers
will develop. Strong winds will become less widespread tonight and
Monday, but locally strong winds and turbulence will remain
possible. Chances for rain could make it as far south as southern
Mohave County on Monday before ending Monday evening.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Morgan

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