NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 12:45 PM PST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 12:45 PM PST, 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
145 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will move through the area today
and tomorrow, bringing strong winds with it and leaving below-normal
temperatures in its wake. Light precipitation chances return to the
northern half of the area with minor winter impacts possible in the
Sierra, Spring Mountains, and northern Lincoln County. Temperatures
moderate in the second half of the week as passing systems bring
periods of breezy, cooler conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday.
An area of low pressure just off the central California coast will
continue push east this afternoon before exiting the region Tuesday.
Southwest winds ahead of the trough have been increasing so far
today and are only expected to get stronger as the afternoon and
evening goes on. Most areas are seeing southwest to west winds
gusting between 30-40 mph, but by late afternoon and evening we can
expect to see winds gusting between 40-50 mph. Wind Advisories are
currently in place for much of southern Nevada, the Mojave Desert,
and Death Valley National Park. These advisories will remain in
place through late tonight or Tuesday morning. Due to the potential
for strong downslope winds, High Wind Warnings are currently in
effect for the eastern Sierra slopes and Owens Valley were winds
gusts to around 60 mph will be possible through this evening.
Another area that is under a High Wind Warning is portions of
southern Nye County and the Las Vegas Valley where we are expecting
to see strong downslope winds develop. The latest hires models along
with numerical guidance are showing winds potentially gusting over
60 mph along the northeast and eastern slopes of the Spring
Mountains between 6pm and 12am. The latest probabilities indicate
about a 70-90% chance of wind gusts over 50 over the western and
southwest Las Vegas Valley, including Mountains Edge, Summerlin, and
Centennial Hills. The probabilities of gusts over 60 mph currently
sits at 30-50% and even around a 10% chance of reaching 70 mph in
some of the more favored terrain. Another area of concern would be
between Las Vegas and Indian Springs on Highway 95 due to the
potential of 60 mph wind gusts and the highway being perpendicular
to the flow.
Winds across the region will swing to the northwest behind the
trough axis late tonight into Tuesday. While these northwesterly
winds won't pack quite the punch that the preceding southwesterly
winds did, they will still be capable of causing minor-to-moderate
impacts. In addition to winds turning to the northwest as the trough
axis swings through, we will also see much cooler temperatures
behind the trough with temperatures dropping around 8 to 12 degrees
from today to tomorrow.
In additional to the gusty winds and cooler temperatures, this
system will also bring some precipitation to mainly the higher
terrain of southern Nevada and Inyo County, as well as the far
western Mojave Desert and far northern Mohave County. Precipitable
water (PW) will briefly reach 100% to 130% of normal as this system
moves through. However, considering that normal PWs for mid-March in
Las Vegas are around 0.30", we aren't working with an abundance of
moisture. In addition to the lack of moisture, the speed at which
this system swings through will be another limiting factor when it
comes to precipitation. Snow levels will start out around 7,000 feet
as the trough moves into the area and will crash to around 4,000 to
5,000 feet as the trough axis swings through. In the Sierra, we are
only expecting minor impacts with 3 to 5 inches of snow between
6000ft and 8,000ft. Areas above 9000 feet could see up to a foot of
new snow. For the Spring Mountains, snow accumulations around 2 to 4
inches will be possible for areas above 8,000 feet with generally
lighter amounts below. Another area to watch will be northern
Lincoln County where some brief heavy snow is possible along and
behind the cold front as it swings through overnight. Some of these
convecting showers could produce a quick couple of inches for areas
generally north of Caliente and quickly reduce visibility in some
places, especially places like Panaca Summit. A dusting to an inch
of snow will be possible across the southern Great Basin and Arizona
Strip with up to two inches possible in the mountain peaks. We could
also see a few isolated thunderstorms across central Nye and
northern Lincoln County as the front pushes through helping to
enhance any showers.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.
Winds subside across the forecast area on Wednesday as weak ridging
builds over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will look similar to
Tuesday afternoon's, despite increased heights, as atmospheric
mixing subsides. This weak ridging will be brief, as a shortwave
trough is expected to pass through the southern Great Basin
Wednesday night through Thursday. The bulk of the moisture
associated with this system will stay north of our forecast area,
with the Sierra Nevada intercepting any moisture that makes it far
enough south. The primary moisture-related impact will be increased
cloud cover across the southern Great Basin and northern Mojave
Desert. Expect elevated west-southwest winds across the western
Mojave Desert and northwest winds across the southwestern Great
Basin on Thursday as the trough axis pushes through the region. Gust
speeds will range from 25 to 35 mph, with a 10-20% chance of gusts
exceeding 40 mph.
A Pacific ridge of high pressure will continue to build through the
remainder of the forecast period, with the Desert Southwest
positioned beneath a dry northwest flow. This will allow
temperatures to quickly rebound back to near-normal by late-week and
to 5-8 degrees above-normal over the weekend. This pattern is
conducive to weak shortwave troughs sliding along the upper-level
flow, which could result in occasional afternoon breeziness through
the weekend and start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty
winds are the primary aviation concern this forecast. Through
early this afternoon, south- southwesterly gusts to 20-25KT are
expected until around 20-21Z, when winds will veer more to the
southwest and increase to 20-25KT sustained with gusts to 30-35KT.
High-resolution guidance indicates the period of strongest winds
will be from roughly 18/01Z through 18/06Z, when periodic gusts to
around 40KT are expected. While there is a 70% probability for
gusts at KLAS to exceed 40KT during that window, there is only a
20% probability for gusts to exceed 45KT, so there is moderate to
high confidence that gusts will remain within that range.
Thereafter, winds will drop off, but remain gusty through the
night, ahead of a northwesterly wind shift around 18/12Z. While
there is a brief window prior to 12Z for wind gusts to diminish,
confidence in this is low, thus have maintained gusty winds
through the wind shift, with gusty northwesterly winds then
expected through the end of the forecast period. Aside from winds,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail, though during the period
of strongest southwesterly winds this afternoon and evening, FEW-
SCT clouds around 8kft are expected to develop, before skies
gradually clear overnight through Tuesday morning.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds are the
main concern the next 24 hours. KHND and KVGT will follow similar
trends to KLAS, with gusty southwesterly winds through tonight,
shifting to the northwest by Tuesday morning. This wind shift will
arrive at KVGT by around 10Z, and at KHND by 15Z, with gusts to
25-35KT at both terminals through the forecast period. KBIH will
see gusty southerly winds early this afternoon that will veer to
the west as winds downslope off of the Sierra, with gusty westerly
winds then continuing through sunset. Winds there will shift to
the north-northwest this evening through Tuesday morning, with
consistent gusts to 25-30KT. KDAG, unlike other terminals, will
see largely unidirectional westerly winds the next 24 hours, with
some variability between 250-280. Winds will increase sharply this
afternoon into tonight, with gusts to 35-40KT expected through
Tuesday morning. Around 15Z, winds are expected to start
diminishing, though gusts to around 25KT will persist through 18Z.
KEED and KIFP will largely be sheltered from the strongest winds
until later this afternoon, when southerly to southwesterly gusts
to 20-25KT develop. Gusty winds then persist through the period at
KEED, though guidance indicates KIFP will have a lull overnight,
with a period of light and variable winds around daybreak. Both
KEED and KIFP will see the northwesterly wind shift arrive late in
the period, with winds increasing sharply and becoming gusty.
Aside from the winds, VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with
SCT mid clouds through the period that will gradually clear out
toward Tuesday morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Phillipson
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