High Wind in Arizona, March 17 to 18, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1016 PM MST Mon Mar 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mild temperatures and gusty winds today, as a
storm system begins to make its way toward the region. Even stronger
winds on Tuesday, with colder temperatures and chances for rain and
snow showers north of the I-40 corridor. A drying and warming trend
develops by mid-week and continues into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Relatively mild temperatures this evening across the
Northland with winds now gusting 20-35mph across the area. As the
trough continues to move eastward across the Great Basin
overnight winds will increase ahead of the trough axis
(particularly downwind of the higher terrain - Mogollon Rim) where
gusts 40-50mph can be expected. The winds will increase in
coverage on Tuesday morning across eastern AZ, and slowly decrease
later in the afternoon as the trough moves east of the state. Current
models continue to show rain and snow showers developing later
tonight and Tuesday morning across far northern Arizona along the
cold front with a couple inches of snow accumulation possible
north of the Grand Canyon and over the Chuskas (Buffalo Pass).
Generally less than an inch expected elsewhere. Travel impacts
should be minimal in most areas.

Current forecast is in great shape, with no significant updates
expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /417 PM MST/...Today and Tuesday...High clouds
continue to increase today ahead of an approaching trough.
Southwest winds will also begin to increase later this evening in
areas that remain mixed, mainly areas downwind of the higher
terrain, as the trough axis approaches. However, most areas will
remain calm as the boundary layer remains decoupled. As we get
into the daytime hours on Tuesday, winds begin to increase
areawide from the west. Peak gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible
from the northern edge of the Mogollon Rim and northward, with
gusts to around 25-35 mph possible elsewhere. Given the slightly
higher- based nature of some showers, there will be the potential
for some showers and areas of virga to have some briefly gusty
winds as well. Winds turn north/northeast overnight, and become
calm for most, but locally gusty northeast winds will remain
during the overnight in the downslope areas of the Mogollon Rim
and Bradshaw Mountains.

Rain and snow showers look to develop early Tuesday morning,
especially across the Kaibab Plateau and Chuska Mountains. Moisture
remains limited given the track of the low, thus the greatest
chances will mainly be along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
Precipitation amounts will also generally be minimal, with only a
few hundredths to a tenth expected for most. The only exception
being the Kaibab where around a quarter of an inch of a half inch of
liquid is forecast. Much of the activity should diminish by the late
afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Sunday...Northeast flow remains on Wednesday, but
begin to rise once again as high pressure builds back into Arizona.
Breezy to gusty winds return on Thursday as a shortwave passes just
to the north of Arizona through Utah. A strong area of high pressure
looks to then build off the Pacific by the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 18/06Z through Wednesday 19/06Z...Mainly VFR
expected. Gusty SW-NW winds at 30-40 kts, with stronger gusts
downwind of the higher terrain. SCT -SHRA/SHSN with MVFR
conditions, mainly along and north of KCMR-KFLG-KRQE line between
09Z-18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 19/06Z through Friday 21/06Z...VFR expected
through the period. Lighter NE winds at 10-20 kts through
Wednesday, becoming SW at 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts on
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Wednesday...A cold front will make
its way through northern Arizona tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
Expect gusty southwest to northwest winds, 30 to 40 mph, with
stronger gusts of up to 50 mph downwind of higher terrain. Scattered
rain/snow showers are forecast along and north of the Mogollon Rim
during this time. Conditions improve Tuesday night into Wednesday
with lighter northeast winds, 10 to 20 mph, and near average
temperatures.

Thursday through Saturday...A warming and drying trend develops
Thursday and persists through this weekend with 5 to 10 degree above
average temperatures by Saturday. Conditions will be dry with low
humidity values decreasing to 15 to 20% each afternoon. Expect
westerly winds, 15 to 25 mph, each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/
Tuesday for AZZ004-009-011-039-040.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ012>017.

&&

PUBLIC...BAK/Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff