A deepening low pressure system strengthens and moves out of the Rockies and strengthens quickly. As the system neared the forecast area, there was very strong mid-level winds and deep vertical mixing.
Every event with a place to put it; 37 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
A deepening low pressure system strengthens and moves out of the Rockies and strengthens quickly. As the system neared the forecast area, there was very strong mid-level winds and deep vertical mixing. This created very strong surface winds of 70+. Into the overnight of 3/18-3/19, a cold frontal passage generated a line of mixed precipitation that fell as primarily snow. The falling snow combined with lingering strong winds created a period of blizzard like conditions. Multiple high wind and blizzard reports were gathered with this system.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 5:55 PM CST, 4 hours 5 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 655 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme fire weather risk Monday and Tuesday afternoons, with unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures and strong southwest winds. - An intense storm system will bring accumulating wet snow and intense north winds, Tuesday night and early Wednesday with a High Wind Watch in effect. Near blizzard conditions are most likely along and north of K-96 early Wednesday. - Dramatically colder with intense, potentially damaging, northwest winds Wednesday. Upgrading the High Wind Watch to a High wind warning is expected to be required. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Currently the southern half of the CWA is in a Red Flag Warning until 8 PM. Most of the warning has already met the criteria with relative humidities well below 10%. Winds have been a little lighter than previously forecasted and are struggling to meet the 25 mph threshold. Most of SW Kansas have reached 80 degrees and the rest of SW Kansas is expected to reach at least 80 today. Into tomorrow morning, another Red Flag Warning is in effect starting at 11 AM and also ends at 8PM. Relative humidities are forecasted, and backed by ensembles, to be similar to Monday with even stronger winds. While this is happening, RAP mesoanalysis has a shortwave over the NW CONUS that is forecasted to continue moving over the Rockies through Tuesday supported by short ranged models/ensembles. Ensembles continue to hold firm that the shortwave will quickly deepen and strengthen to a closed low pressure system before entering Kansas as it moves off the Rockies. Shortly after reaching Kansas there is great agreement among models/ensembles that the system will become negative titled and eject northeastward up out of Kansas. Nearly every model/ensemble have the mid-level system over NW Kansas by the start of Wednesday. It will be crucial to see how this track holds up over the next couple days as it directly influences the winter weather potential. Prior to that, a High Wind Watch is in effect starting 7 PM CDT Tuesday. Northwest winds are expected to be from 35-45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph. Winds will continue to strengthen as the system does, especially behind the cold front. Between radiational cooling and the cold front generating significant CAA, a tremendous temperature drop is expected over Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning of over 40 degrees. Wednesday will see the highest winds with gusts up to 70 mph supported by strong winds through the entire atmospheric column. The entire forecast area is expected to see very strong winds until the system exits with the High Wind Watch currently set to expire at 7 PM CDT Wednesday. With the high confidence for very strong winds, it is expected that it will need to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning within the next day. With the winds and blowing dust potential, precautions should be taken especially those traveling. The systems precipitation potential is the most uncertain and potentially the most seriously impactful aspect. Ensembles have a >75% chance for precipitation for virtually all of SW Kansas except along the OK/KS border where it drops to 50%. Nearly every facet of the precipitation forecast has uncertainty including how much will fall, how far south will it stretch, and when will the rain shift to snow. The onset will be warm enough for all of the initial precipitation to fall as rain behind ensembles' frontogenesis band at 850 mb pushing into SW Kansas very late Tuesday. As the temperatures plummet, most of the rain is expected to switch to snow over Wednesday morning except for the leading edge. Areas north of Highway 56 have the best opportunity for snow. During this shift, areas that received rain could freeze freeze creating some slick surfaces especially with the very strong winds. Rainfall accumulations are expected to be minimal (<0.25 in) with the light rain moving quickly and shifting to snow. Snowfall amounts forecasted have peeled back slightly with new guidance being closer to the 1-3 inch range. Accumulations will be even less as it falls as wet snow where much could melt on contact with the surface. Caution should still be taken as places where snow does accumulate could lay over frozen surfaces where rain/melted snow fell previously. While the accumulations amounts are not too significant, not much falling snow will be needed to drop visibilities to near zero, especially with the very strong winds. The WPC continues to have areas along and north of Highway 96 at a >50% for moderate blowing snow impacts. If all of this realizes, blizzard conditions will be met despite the relatively low snowfall amounts. Between the high wind watch and the winter storm watch, there is high confidence in both. The only pause in upgrading to a blizzard warning is the uncertainty to the spatial extent of the snowy conditions. For example, the RAP and ECMWF have meaningful snowfall as far south as the southern row of Kansas' counties; the NAM has snow restricted to the northern 6 zones while the GFS and HRRR are in between the two. Regardless of the extent of the winter storm, the entirety of SW Kansas should take precautions especially those with expected travel. Highs on Wednesday will work to fight back up to the 50s after the system exits and the northwest winds weaken significantly. With continued CAA on Wednesday, lows Thursday morning are forecasted to be in the 20s. On Thursday, southwesterly winds return with some downslope winds sharply warming into the 60s where ensemble means currently reside. Friday is expected to host a subtle shortwave trough to the north of the forecast area by models/ensembles. Little tangible impact is expected to be felt outside of a sharp wind shift and some CAA as the system's precipitation potential remains near 0. Yet another shortwave is depicted by ensembles Sunday, but uncertainty remains fairly high this far out. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 An upper level storm system will approach the plains during the period. South to southwest winds at 10 to 15 kts will increase to 20-25 kts by 18-21z as stronger mid level winds mix to the surface with daytime heating. VFR conditions are forecast; but blowing dust could reduce visibilities to 2-3 miles or less at KLBL between 20-00z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 A Red Flag Warning is currently in effect until 8 PM CDT Monday for the southern two rows of counties including Hamilton and Kearny. Relative humidities are expected as low as 5% with most of the Warning already having reached below 10%. Sustained southwest winds remain just shy of criteria at 15-20 mph, but the southwestern counties have consistently gusted above 25 mph. Another Red Flag Warning is in place for the entire CWA starting at 11 AM CDT and ending at 8 PM CDT. Widespread 8-15% relatives humidities are expected to carry over from Monday with the transport of dry air from the southwest. Winds will be more significant on Tuesday from the southwest with a developing system moving off the Rockies. Sustained winds are expected up to 40 mph with gusts potentially reaching 50 mph during the duration of the Warning. Later on Tuesday, after the Warning, a sharp wind shift out of the northwest is expected with a frontal passage as winds continue to strengthen. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ030-031-043>046. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074>078-080-081-084>090. && DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Finch FIRE WEATHER...KBJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-181715- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 /1101 AM MDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas, south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from 1 PM to 8 PM. The southern counties with relative humidities as low as 8% and wind gusts up to 30 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday On Tuesday, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1 PM to 9 PM for all counties. Relative humidities as low as 10% and winds up to 40 mph and gusts up to 55 mph. On Wednesday the CWA is split between a high wind watch and a winter storm watch. There is great confidence in the very strong winds, but snowfall extent continues to hold some uncertainty. As Wednesday approaches it is expected that they both will be upgraded to high wind warning and a blizzard warning respectively. Whether the warnings take the exact shape of the watches remains to be seen. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected to be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
31 high wind, 4 blizzard, 2 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
An emergency manager reported about 4.5 inches of snow through the event with periods of heavy snow on the morning of the 18th with high winds.
Report from 2 W Liberal. ASOS station KLBL Liberal recorded a 61 mph gust.
Mesonet station UR350 Kismws recorded a 73 mph gust.
KZLF_Transmitter_Site recorded a gust of 70 mph.
AWOS station KTQK Scott City recorded a 62 mph wind gust.
A personal weather station kksscott4 recorded a wind gust of 65 mph. A couple other public weather stations recorded a 63 and 61 mph wind gust around the same time.
Ambient Weather Network site: B-Hart-Farm recorded a wind gust of 59 mph.
Official NWS snow observations at KDDC were 4.4 inches at the end of the event.
AWOS station K36K 2 N Lakin recorded a 60 mph wind gust.
Ambient Weather Network site: Videra Weather recorded a wind gust of 60 mph.
The 1 WSW Richfield Kansas mesonet recorded a wind gust of 74 mph. Mesonet station CGLK1 Cimarron recorded a wind gust of 68 mph around an hour later.
AWOS station KEHA Elkhart Site recorded a wind gust of 70 mph.
AWOS station KHQG Hugoton recorded a 63 mph wind gust.
Public station Prairie_AG:AWN recorded a wind gust of 64 mph.
A public weather station KKSNESSC2 reported a 58 mph wind gust.
One-quarter mile visibility in snow and blowing snow with frequent 55 to 65 mph wind gusts from roughly 2 AM to 10 AM at Garden City Airport.
AWOS station KJHN Johnson City recorded a 75 mph wind gust.
Kansas State Mesonet Lane County recorded a wind gust of 64 mph.
Ambient Weather Network site: M Isaac recorded a wind gust of 60 mph.
Personal Weather Station: KKSDIGHT22 recorded a wind gust of 70 mph.
Report of large tree limbs broken and covering driveway and portions of street. Report received from social media with picture.
Mesonet station UP313 2.1 W Minneola (UPR) recorded a wind gust of 59 mph.
Frequent one-quarter mile or less visibility in snow and blowing snow with frequent 55 to 65 mph wind gusts. Blizzard conditions began around 5 AM CDT and lasted until around 11 am.
Official backup equipment recorded a wind gust of 69 mph. The asos at KDDC recorded a 64 mph wind gust a few hours later.
Personal Weather Station: KKSPLAIN57 recorded a wind gust of 69 mph.
K5COO US-50 @ MP 4.4 Syracuse station recorded a 61 mph wind gust.
Hays ASOS recorded a wind gust of 60 mph.
Mesonet reported one quarter mile to one eight of a mile visibility began being reported before high winds and heavy snow disabled the reporting equipment. The Blizzard visibility and wind criteria began at 7 am and lasted into the late morning as winds were sustained to 40 mph and gusting to up to 60 mph commonly.
Mesonet station UP852 3.7 W Ogallah (UPR) recorded a wind gust of 63 mph.
ASOS station KGCK Garden City recorded a 68 mph wind gust.
Ambient Weather Network site: TyWeather Station recorded a 76 mph wind gust. Another public station recorded a wind gust of 73 mph a few hours earlier.
Off-duty NWS employee relayed a picture of a downed traffic light at 14th and W Comanche.
Mesonet station UP372 2.3 W Mullinville (UPR) recorded a wind gust of 66 mph. Another nearby station recorded a 61 mph wind gust a half hour prior.
Emergency manager reported that a large Tree branch fell on a powerline causing a house fire.
Emergency manager reported blizzard conditions including 60 mph gusts, one quarter mile visibility in snow and blowing snow roughly between 10 am and 3 pm.
Two carports were destroyed by high winds at the airport; reported by an emergency manager.
ASOS station KP28 Medicine Lodge recorded a wind gust of 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1241216, 1241252, 1241253, 1241182, 1241248, 1241250, 1241238, 1241230, 1241239, 1241234, 1241244, 1241243, 1241255, 1241237, 1241246, 1241223, 1241254, 1241241, 1241235, 1241242, 1241231, 1241184, 1241224, 1241226, 1241219, 1241236, 1241218, 1241217, 1241256, 1241221, 1241225, 1241232, 1241240, 1241185, 1241247, 1241233, 1241183.