Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow on the order of 45 to 60 kts ahead of a crossing cold front resulted in strong to high winds across Southwest MT as the front crossed.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow on the order of 45 to 60 kts ahead of a crossing cold front resulted in strong to high winds across Southwest MT as the front crossed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 10:47 AM MST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1147 AM MDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of mostly mountain snow continue through Tuesday, with the most widespread snowfall expected Sunday and Monday. - Strong winds are expected today along the Rocky Mountain Front and over portions of southwest Montana. - A brief period of drier conditions is expected for the mid- week period before another round of Pacific weather systems brings more unsettled conditions heading towards next weekend. && .UPDATE... /Issued 1008 AM MDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ Winds have begun to increase across Southwestern Montana as our weather system pushes into the area. Winds will continue to increase through the remainder of the morning and afternoon, likely peaking in the late afternoon. With that said, the existing forecast remains on track, so no changes are needed at this time. Ludwig && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1008 AM MDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: A series of Pacific weather systems will move over the area through Tuesday, bringing periods of mostly mountain snow, scattered lower elevation rain/snow showers, and breezy to windy conditions. A weak and fast-moving upper level ridge will make its way across the region Wednesday into Thursday morning. This will give the region a short break in precipitation before another active pattern with multiple rounds of Pacific weather systems sets up again towards the end of the week into early next week. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Wind Today... Model guidance continues to lock in on the high wind potential in southwest Montana this afternoon into the overnight hours. There is still a bit of uncertainty as to whether the strongest wind gusts will reach the valleys of southwest Montana but there is high enough confidence and concern for impact that the warning is justified through today. Overall, the probabilities and confidence have not deviated from previous forecasts. Thus, no changes were made to the current High Wind Warning. Snow Today through Tuesday... Snow will slowly become more widespread across the mountains through today and last through late Monday afternoon. A final, weaker system will move through Tuesday bringing light snow showers to the mountains before a brief break through the middle of the week. By region, the confidence and considerations are as follows... Rocky Mountain Front: Lingering snow showers will continue through the day which may make travel along Marias and Rogers Pass difficult at times. The highest and most impactful amounts are expected well above pass level but given a greater than 80% confidence in at least a couple inches at pass level, as well as travel impact concerns due to blowing snow, the decision was made to have a winter weather advisory continue through the rest of the day. Little Belt Mountains: With southwesterly flow in place, the main concern will be along the southern face of the mountain range with little snowfall or impacts expected along the northside of the mountains towards Hwy 200. The main concern will be above 6000 feet which includes US-89 in and around the Kings Hill Pass area. Hi-res model guidance has pointing towards a greater than 80% chance of 4 inches or more and a 50 to 70% of 6 inches or more at pass level. Additionally model guidance has placed surrounding areas including Neihart at greater than 80% chance of 2 inches or more and a 40 to 60% chance of 4 inches or more. Given the potential travel impacts, the decision was made to issue a Winter Weather Advisory through tonight. Northwest Beaverhead County: There is good model agreement for the mountains in northwest Beaverhead receiving at least 4 to 6 inches through the rest of today. Higher amounts are possible in the highest terrain but impacts to pass level and below were more fitting of an advisory. There was also a bit of uncertainty as some models, including the NBM, wanted to put out abnormally high snow ratios and QPF which worked to artificially bump up snow totals initially. Adjustments to these parameters were made with the forecast to put snow amounts down to a more reasonable point. But the lack of confidence in the higher amounts was a larger part of the reason why an advisory was chosen over a warning for today. Madison and Gallatin Ranges: This portion of southwest Montana will be impacted by both the round of snow today as well as another round tomorrow. While some of the highest elevations may see higher amounts, in general at pass and town level, lower but still impactful amounts are expected. Thus the decision was made to issue a Winter Weather Advisory to encompass both rounds of snow. -thor && .AVIATION... 16/18Z TAF Period Strong west to southwesterly flow aloft and an approaching Pacific disturbance will bring increased surface winds, mountain wave turbulence, mountain obscuration, and instances of low level wind shear for much of the TAF period; most notably to the Southwest Montana. The worst conditions with respect to mountain wave turbulence and low level wind shear are expected over Southwest Montana from between 16/20 and 17/06Z when mountain top winds peak in the 50 to 60 kt range. While VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the afternoon hours across all terminals there will be considerable mid- and upper level cloudiness, with periods of MVFR/low-VFR VIS and/or CIGS beneath/near precipitation. While most of the precipitation will be confined to the mountains through the afternoon hours, scattered lower elevation showers may bring periods of MVFR conditions to the KBZN, KEKS, KHLN, and KLWT terminals through this evening. Areas south of a KHLN and KLWT line will then begin to trends towards IFR during the overnight hours as the Pacific disturbance moves over the Northern Rockies. - Moldan/RCG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 53 32 48 25 / 20 50 10 10 CTB 45 28 44 23 / 30 20 10 0 HLN 50 31 45 25 / 60 90 30 10 BZN 48 29 41 20 / 40 80 60 50 WYS 38 27 37 14 / 90 80 100 80 DLN 48 31 44 21 / 50 70 50 30 HVR 48 26 46 22 / 30 40 10 0 LWT 48 30 43 23 / 30 70 20 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for East Glacier Park Region-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Missouri Headwaters. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Madison River Valley-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. && http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet station MTNOR Norris Hill (MT DOT) measured high sustained winds, averaged to 41 mph for an hour.
ASOS station KDLN Dillon Airport measured a 61 mph wind gust.
Mesonet station MTM17 BLM - Virginia City measured a 60 mph wind gust.
Mesonet station HRKM8 Harkness RAWS measured a 68 mph wind gust. Time estimated by nearby observations.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1242601, 1242604, 1242609, 1242607.